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Limits of Floating Exchange Rates
A traditional argument in favor of flexible exchange rates is that they insulate output better from real shocks, because the exchange rate can adjust and stabilize demand for domestic goods through expenditure switching. This argument is weakened in models with high foreign currency debt and low exchange rate pass-through to import prices. The present study evaluates the empirical relevance of these two factors. We analyze the transmission of real external shocks to the domestic economy under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes for a broad sample of countries in a Panel VAR and let the responses vary with foreign currency indebtedness and import structure. We find that flexible exchange rates do not insulate output better from external shocks if the country imports mainly low pass-through goods and can even amplify the output response if foreign indebtedness is high.
Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint
Since the 1930s, governments have overcome recessions by borrowing and spending to temporarily replace lost consumer and business spending. What happens when they can't do it anymore? In Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint , PIMCO Executive VP Tony Crescenzi offers a sobering tour of today's unprecedented global sovereign debt crisis.
Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy - Detailed Guidance on Instruments
This note covers considerations that can guide the staff’s policy advice on the use of a broad range of macroprudential tools. It discusses the transmission and likely effectiveness of these tools in mitigating systemic risks and the set of indicators that can be used in surveillance to assess the need for changes in macroprudential policy settings. This note is a supplement to the Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy.
Assessing the Determinants of Interest Rate Transmission Through Conditional Impulse Response Functions
We employ a structural panel VAR model with interaction terms to identify determinants of effective transmission from central bank policy rates to retail lending rates in a large country sample. The framework allows deriving country specific pass-through estimates broken down into the contributions of structural country characteristics and policies. The findings suggest that industrial economies tend to enjoy a higher pass-through largely on account of their more flexible exchange rate regimes and their more developed financial systems. The average pass-through in our sample increased from 30 to 60 percent between 2003 and 2008, mainly due to positive risk sentiment, rising inflation and increasingly diversified banking sectors. The crisis reversed this trend partly as banks increased precautionary liquidity holdings, non-performing loans proliferated and inflation moderated.
Effectiveness of Capital Outflow Restrictions
This paper examines the effectiveness of capital outflow restrictions in a sample of 37 emerging market economies during the period 1995-2010, using a panel vector autoregression approach with interaction terms. Specifically, it examines whether a tightening of outflow restrictions helps reduce net capital outflows. We find that such tightening is effective if it is supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals or good institutions, or if existing restrictions are already fairly comprehensive. When none of these three conditions is fulfilled, a tightening of restrictions fails to reduce net outflows as it provokes a sizeable decline in gross inflows, mainly driven by foreign investors.
Capital Markets Union and Beyond
Experts from economics, finance, law, policy, and banking discuss the design and implementation of a future capital market union in Europe. The plan for further development of Europe's economic and monetary union foresees the creation of a capital market union (CMU)—a single market for capital in the entire Eurozone. The need for citizens and firms of all European countries to have access to funding, together with the pressure to improve the efficiency and risk-sharing opportunities of the financial system in general, put the CMU among the top priorities on the Eurozone's agenda. In this volume, leading academics in economics, finance, and law, along with policy makers and practitioners, d...
The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies - Background Paper
This paper provides background material to support the Board paper on the interaction of monetary and macroprudential policies. It analyzes the scope for and evidence on interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies. It first reviews a recent conceptual literature on interactive effects that arise when both macroprudential and monetary policy are employed. It goes on to explore the “side effects” of monetary policy on financial stability and their implications for macroprudential policy. It finally addresses the strength of possible effects of macroprudential policies on output and price stability, and draws out implications for the conduct of monetary policy.
The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability
The two most topical issues in current financial markets deal with the causes of the recent financial crisis and the means to prevent future crises. This book addresses the latter and stresses a major shift in most countries toward a better understanding of financial stability and how it can be achieved. In particular, the papers in this volume examine the recent change in emphasis at central banks with regard to financial stability. For example: What were the cross-country differences in emphasis on financial stability in the past Did these differences appear to affect the extent of the adverse impact of the financial crisis on individual countries What are perceived to be the major future threats to financial stability These and related issues are discussed in the book by well-known experts in the field OCo some of the best minds in the world pursuing financial stability. Following the global financial crisis, significant reforms have been initiated in many countries to address financial stability more directly, frequently focusing on macroprudential policy frameworks in which central banks play a more active role."
What Caused the Global Financial Crisis
This paper investigates empirically the drivers of financial imbalances ahead of the global financial crisis. Three factors may have contributed to the build-up of financial imbalances: (i) rising global imbalances (capital flows), (ii) monetary policy that might have been too loose, (iii) inadequate supervision and regulation. Panel data regressions are performed for OECD countries from 1999 to 2007, so as to shed light on the relative importance of these factors, as well as the extent to which these factors might have interacted in fuelling the build-up. We find that the build-up of financial imbalances was driven by capital inflows and an associated compression of the spread between long and short rates. The effect of capital inflows on the build-up is amplified where the supervisory and regulatory environment was relatively weak. We find that, by contrast, differences in monetary policy cannot account for differences across countries in the build-up of financial imbalances ahead of the crisis.
The World of Forking Paths
This report details the divergent paths that the world economy may take and their potential effects on Latin America and the Caribbean. Scenarios are constructed employing a modeling exercise that captures the trade, financial and other linkages between the region and the rest of the world. While vulnerabilities remain and external shocks have been and remain critical, the region enjoys many strengths and has developed a growing arsenal of policy tools. What is the balance of vulnerabilities versus strengths? How can countries address the existing vulnerabilities? How can they perfect their policy tools and minimize the effect of external crises?
