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Monetary and Fiscal Policy, the Exchange Rate and Foreign Wealth
The book investigates issues of policy design in open economies. The performance of simple alternative policy rules is analysed in the context of theoretical models using both analytical solutions and numerical simulations techniques. One of the substantive contributions of the research is that policy evaluation should take into account, among other things, the implications of different rules for foreign wealth and the exchange rate. Hence the open economy models presented in the book include wealth effects and the current account.
Fiscal Multipliers and Informality
This paper investigates the role of informality in affecting the magnitude of the fiscal multiplier in a panel of 141 countries, using the local projections method. We find a strong negative relationship between the degree of informality and the size of the fiscal multiplier. This result holds irrespective of the levels of economic development and institutional quality and is robust to additional country characteristics such as trade, financial openness and exchange rate regime. In a two-sector new- Keynesian model, we rationalize this result by showing that fiscal shocks raise the relative price of official goods, shifting demand towards the informal sector. This reallocation effect increases with the level of informality, because a larger informal sector is associated with a stronger appreciation of relative prices in response to fiscal shocks. Thus, informality raises the size of the unofficial multiplier. A higher degree of non-separability between public and private goods also contributes to rationalize the lower multipliers in high-informality countries.
Social Pacts, Employment and Growth
In this book leading European economists examine the current status of social pacts and their future. Particular focus is placed on the role of trade unions, and the positive role they can play for economic and social stability by agreeing to set wages on the basis of a target rate of inflation. As the European Union expands and social change accelerates, this insightful book will be of interest to all concerned with social and economic developments across Europe.
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policies and Labour Markets
A survey of fiscal policy, monetary policy and labour markets in the European Monetary Union.
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policies and Labour Markets
Following the birth of the European Monetary Union (EMU) economists are still divided in their assessment of the ability of its key institutions to provide macroeconomic stability and foster the reforms necessary to stimulate economic growth. In this collection, experts focus on issues of fiscal policy, monetary policy and labour markets and ask: Can the stability and growth pact provide an adequate framework for the conduct of national fiscal policies? Is the ECB reacting with competence and flexibility to a rapidly changing macroeconomic environment? How do national labour markets react to the macroeconomic institutions and what are the structural reforms needed in labour markets? Blending empirical and theoretical data, this book offers one of the most comprehensive surveys of research in macroeconomic policymaking within the EMU.
Bayesian Econometrics
Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.
Institutional Conflicts and Complementarities
This important collection presents an authoritative selection of papers on "Institutional Conflicts and Complementarities" This publication is intent on building bridges between economics and the other social sciences. The focus is on the interaction between monetary policy and wage bargaining institutions in European Monetary Union (EMU). Institutional Conflicts and Complementarities is written by acknowledged experts in their field. The outcome is a broad analysis of the interactions of labour market actors and central banks. The volume addresses the recent changes in EMU. An important theoretical, empirical, and policy-relevant conclusion that emerges from Institutional Conflicts and Complementarities is that even perfectly credible monetary conservatism has long-term real effects, even in equilibrium models with fully rational expectations.
The Role of Financial Markets in the Transition Process
Financial Markets play an important role in economic development, channeling saving to investments and facilitating growth. In Eastern Europe financial markets were initially much underdeveloped, and lacked the skills and infrastructure they needed to be efficient, having not acquired them in the pre-transition era. The book offers a both theoretical and empirical analysis of financial markets in transitional economies. It investigates financial markets in Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland, and their role in the developments in the 1990s.
