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Economic Diversification in the GCC
Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, ...
Brazil
This Selected Issues paper examines infrastructure investment in Brazil. Brazil has inferior overall infrastructure quality relative to almost all its export competitors. Brazil’s infrastructure endowment ranks low by international standards, and its low quality affects productivity, market efficiency, and competitiveness. Areas in which Brazil’s competitiveness has lagged include, but are not limited to, education, innovation, governance, and justice. Brazil’s infrastructure gap has become a major obstacle to growth and filling this gap will entail increasing investment and also stepping up other reforms.
Ecuador
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that since the fourth quarter of 2014, the economy of Ecuador has been hit by external shocks and is slowing down. The sharp decline in the international oil price, by about half for the Ecuadorian mix, significantly undercut oil revenues. In addition, competitiveness is being eroded by the real appreciation of the exchange rate. In the face of the economic slowdown, bank liquidity conditions have tightened, credit growth has slowed, and nonperforming loans have risen. Despite the slowdown, inflation is picking up. Owing to the shocks and expected adjustment, the economy is projected to contract somewhat in 2015, while the external position deteriorates.
Japan
Japan’s position is one of the largest and richest economies in the world. Tokyo as a financial marketplace is not a major intermediator of global capital flows. The current macroeconomic environment is conducive to spillovers being larger than captured by the empirical analysis. Apart from heading off tail risks, fiscal consolidation in Japan would have medium to long-term benefits for its partner countries. Exchange rate-related spillovers on foreign financial markets are found to be small and depend partly on policy developments abroad.
The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC
This paper examines the links between global oil price movements and macroeconomic and financial developments in the GCC. Using a range of multivariate panel approaches, including a panel vector autoregression approach, it finds strong empirical evidence of feedback loops between oil price movements, bank balance sheets, and asset prices. Empirical evidence also suggests that bank capital and provisioning have behaved countercyclically through the cycle.
Too-Big-to-Fail in Banking
This book provides a comprehensive summary of the latest academic research on the important topic of too-big-to-fail (TBTF) in banking. It explains TBTF from various perspectives including the range of regulatory measures proposed to counter TBTF, most notably the globally accepted regulation of global-systemically important banks (G-SIBs) and its main tool of capital surcharges. The empirical analysis quantifies the shareholder value of the G-SIB attribution by using quarterly observations from more than 750 global banks between Q2 2008 and Q3 2015. The main finding is that G-SIBs are confronted with a substantial relative valuation discount compared to non-G-SIBs. From the end of 2011 unti...
Republic of Poland
Poland’s economy has recovered well in 2010–11, reflecting strong economic fundamentals and decisive countercyclical policies. Poland’s strong trade and financial links to Europe continue to make it vulnerable to potential shocks from the region. Despite the difficult external environment, the authorities have continued to rebuild policy space to counter adverse shocks. Measures are also being taken to strengthen medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability. The economy is expected to moderate further in 2013. Financial sector policies have helped improve the resilience of the banking system.
Republic of Poland
This paper reviews Poland’s economic performance under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement. Economic growth in Poland is expected to slow in 2012, given the deteriorating outlook for the euro area. Risks are on the downside, mainly reflecting the possibility of spillovers from escalating financial and sovereign stress in the rest of Europe. The authorities have continued to take steps to mitigate the effects of external shocks. Substantial fiscal consolidation is under way; sound monetary policy is helping inflation decline toward the target; and measures have been taken to safeguard financial stability.
Kuwait
This Selected Issues paper on Kuwait focuses on fiscal expenditures with the aim of identifying potential areas for reform. While the authorities’ planned non-oil revenue measures are welcome, these alone will not reduce the authorities’ fiscal deficit sufficiently, highlighting the importance of expenditure reforms. This paper draws from previous episodes of adjustment in Kuwait and conducts some benchmarking—comparing Kuwait’s level of fiscal spending in various areas to that of peers—to identify areas for streamlining and efficiency improvement. Kuwait needs to implement fiscal consolidation to adjust to durably lower oil prices. The collapse in oil prices has resulted in substantial deterioration of both external and fiscal positions, leading to large fiscal financing needs. In order to preserve the fiscal buffers and provide equitable consumption of future generations, Kuwait needs to consolidate its fiscal position. While the planned tax reforms and repricing of government services are steps in the right direction, fiscal consolidation also needs to rely heavily on streamlining expenditures.
Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis
The ongoing global financial crisis is rooted in a combination of factors common to previous financial crises and some new factors. The crisis has brought to light a number of deficiencies in financial regulation and architecture, particularly in the treatment of systemically important financial institutions, the assessments of systemic risks and vulnerabilities, and the resolution of financial institutions. The global nature of the financial crisis has made clear that financially integrated markets, while offering many benefits, can also pose significant risks, with large real economic consequences. Deep reforms are therefore needed to the international financial architecture to safeguard the stability of an increasingly financially integrated world.
