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Global Imbalances
This paper investigates the role played by emerging Asia in the emergence and evolution of the global trade imbalances. Based on simulations in a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that a productivity slowdown in the non-tradable sector of these economies in the second half of the 1990s fits regional macroeconomic developments relatively well, but has limited spillover effect to the United States trade balance. In contrast, an increase in the desired level of emerging Asia net foreign assets starting in 2001 not only fits regional developments relatively well, but also has a significant spillover effect to the United States.
Global Imbalances
This paper investigates the role played by total factor productivity (TFP) in the tradable and nontradable sectors of the United States, the euro area, and Japan in the emergence and evolution of today's global trade imbalances. Simulation results based on a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy, and using the EU KLEMS database, indicate that TFP developments in these economies can account for a significant fraction of the total deterioration in the U.S. trade balance since 1999, as well as account for some the surpluses in the euro area and Japan. Differences in TFP developments across sectors can also partially explain the evolution of the real effective value of the U.S. dollar during this period.
Reflating Japan
Japan has ambitious economic goals: 3 percent nominal growth; 2 percent inflation; and a primary budget surplus. Abenomics has employed the three arrows of monetary, fiscal and structural policies, but the goals remain out of reach. We propose that countercyclical measures be embedded in long-run frameworks that anchor expectations for inflation and public debt. In addition, we argue for an incomes policy to assist reflation. Model simulations suggest that, combined, these proposals would make headway towards the goals, with, on balance, a better chance of success than the more unconventional policy alternatives proposed by Krugman, Svensson, and Turner from a risk-return perspective.
New Shocks and Asset Price Volatility in General Equilibrium
We study equity price volatility in general equilibrium with news shocks about future productivity and monetary policy. As West (1988) shows, in a partial equilibrium present discounted value model, news about the future cash flow reduces asset price volatility. We show that introducing news shocks in a canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model may not reduce asset price volatility under plausible parameter assumptions. This is because, in general equilibrium, the asset cash flow itself may be affected by the introduction of news shocks. In addition, we show that neglecting to account for policy news shocks (e.g., policy announcements) can potentially bias empirical estimates of the impact of monetary policy shocks on asset prices.
New Shocks, Exchange Rates and EquityPrices
We study exchange rate and equity price dynamics, in general equilibrium, in the presence of news shocks about future productivity and monetary policy. We identify a condition under which these asset prices become more volatile without affecting the volatility of the underlying processes-a positive correlation between news and current shocks. This condition also explains why persistent underlying processes generate volatile asset prices. In addition, we show that the correlation between exchange rate and equity returns depends critically on the currency denomination of the equity return and the monetary policy reaction to productivity shocks. The model we set up does well at matching second moments of exchange rate and equity returns for major floating currencies.
Bank Bonds
None
Asia and China in the Global Economy
"This edited volume presents a collection of papers prepared by 33 researchers from esteemed academic institutions, think tanks, central banks and international organizations across Asia, Europe and the US. This diverse group of authors includes a broad spectrum of academic and policy researchers and offers readers a balanced presentation of academic, policy-oriented, and market perspectives on the Asian economies in general and China in particular."--Page [xxii].
Getting Globalization Right
This book presents stimulating new perspectives on three key sets of issues: a fair globalization, the policies that might be adopted in response to protectionist pressures, and sustainable development policies involving G7 and G20 actions to lay the foundations for renewed trust. The individual topics addressed within this framework are wide ranging. Examples include globalization and national inequality, globalization and policies for inclusive growth in developing countries, the sources of controversies regarding trade agreements and their effects, the impact of new U.S. commercial policies on the world trading system, real convergence in the Euro area, and the causes of Brexit. The book comprises a selection of contributions presented at the XXIXth Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar. In offering contrasting points of view on topics of high current interest, it will appeal to academics, policymakers, and economic experts at institutions.
