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Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks and Improving the Spending Mix in Small States
Reflecting diseconomies of scale in providing public goods and services, recurrent spending in small states typically represents a large share of GDP. For some small states, this limits the fiscal space available for growth-promoting capital spending. Small states generally face greater revenue volatility than other country groups, owing to their exposure to exogenous shocks (including natural disasters) and narrow production bases. With limited buffers, revenue volatility often results in procyclical fiscal policy as the econometric analysis shows. To strengthen fiscal frameworks, small states should seek to streamline and prioritize recurrent spending to create fiscal space for capital spending. The quality of spending could also be improved through public financial management reform and multiyear budgeting.
How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?
This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.
Republic of Serbia
This paper discusses the Republic of Serbia’s Third Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI). Serbia is the second IMF member country to request a PCI and aims to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability, while advancing an ambitious reform agenda to foster rapid growth, job creation and improved living standards. All quantitative targets (QTs) for end-September 2019 were met. Most reform targets (RTs) have been implemented. The IMF Staff recommends completion of the third review under the Policy Coordination Instrument and establishment of end-September 2020 QTs. Fiscal policy is on track so far, however, it will be important to closely monitor 2019 budget implementation to ensure that the deficit stays within the program ceiling. While progress has been made in reforming the tax administration and strengthening public investment management frameworks, delayed reforms of the public wage system and public employment framework need to advance in 2020.
Macroeconomic Developments and Selected Issues in Small Developing States
This report builds on the work in the 2013 Board paper on Fund Engagement with Small States, the 2013 background papers on Asian and Pacific small states and Caribbean small states, and the 2014 staff guidance note. It provides a deeper analysis and policy recommendations in respect of three challenges identified in these papers. Looking ahead, the paper also analyses the impact and possible policy responses to two global economic trends—lower oil prices and diverse movements in major currencies.
Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis
Using financial statement data from the Thomson Reuter’s Worldscope database for 22,333 non-financial firms in 52 advanced and emerging economies, this paper examines how fiscal stimulus (i.e., changes in structural deficit) interacted with sectoral business cycle sensitivity affected corporate profitability during the recovery period of the global financial crisis (GFC). Using cross-sectional analyses, our findings indicate that corporate profitability improved significantly after the GFC fiscal stimulus, especially in manufacturing, utilities and retail sectors. Firm size and leverage are also found to be significant in explaining changes in corporate profitability.
Cyprus
Cyprus: Selected Issues
Causes and Implications of Elevated Inflation in Cyprus
Inflation has risen sharply in Cyprus, initially driven by imported prices, but increasingly broadening to domestic prices. A Phillips Curve estimate attributes the high inflation largely to energy prices, external price pressures, and inflation expectations at the end of 2022. Historically high pass-through of inflation shocks to wages—amplified by a tight labor market—may make inflation persistent. This calls for policies to stem inflationary pressures while protecting vulnerable households.
External Devaluations
The paper investigates whether the macroeconomic effects of external devaluations have systematically different effects in small states, which are typically more open and less diversified than larger peers. Through several analytical approaches -- DSGE model, event study, and regression analysis -- it finds that the effects of devaluation on growth and external balances are not significantly different between small and large states, with both groups equally likely to experience expansionary or contractionary outcomes. However, the transmission channels are different: devaluations in small states are more likely to affect demand through expenditure compression, rather than expenditure-switching channels. In particular, consumption tends to fall more sharply in small states due to adverse income effects, thereby reducing import demand. Policy conclusions point to the importance of social safety nets, complementary wage and antiinflation policies, investment-boosting reforms, and attention to potential adverse balance sheet effects to ensure positive outcomes.
Republic of Serbia: 2021 Article IV Consultation and Request for a 30-Month Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Serbia
Recent economic developments. Supported by a large policy package, Serbia’s economy rebounded quickly from the initial COVID-19 shock, recording a 1 percent contraction of real GDP in 2020. Job losses have mostly been contained to the informal sector, thanks to policy measures aimed at preserving formal employment. A supplementary budget for 2021 was adopted in April boosting capital expenditure and extending policy support to households and corporates, against the background of third and fourth waves of infections and related containment measures, as well as a weaker-than-expected economic recovery in key trading partners. Inflation remains low. After rising again in late February, infections tapered, helped by new containment measures and the rapid vaccine rollout.
Tax Policy Measures in Advanced and Emerging Economies: A Novel Database
This paper describes a new, comprehensive database of tax policy measures in 23 advanced and emerging market economies over the last four decades. We extract this information from more than 900 OECD Economic Surveys and 37,000 tax-related news from the International Bureau of Fiscal Documentation using text-mining techniques. The innovation of this dataset lies in its granularity: changes in the rates and bases of personal and corporate income taxes, value added and sale taxes, social security contributions, excise, and property taxes are systematically documented. In addition, the database provides information on the announcement and implementation dates, whether the measures represent major changes, are part of a broader tax package, and phased in over several years. The paper also presents a range of stylized facts suggesting that information from this database is useful to deepen the analysis of tax policy changes for research and policy purposes.
