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The Future of Work in Sub-Saharan Africa
Far-reaching changes in technology, climate, and global economic integration are transforming the world of work in ways that we do not yet fully understand. Will the swift technological advances of the Fourth Industrial Revolution raise the standards of living for everyone? Or will robots massively displace workers leading to a jobless future where only a few benefit from the fruits of innovation? Will mitigation efforts be able to cushion the adverse effects of climate change, including food shortages and mass migration, which would place extra pressure on urban labor markets? Will countries continue to integrate commercially and financially, fostering growth and employment? Or will trade wars become a norm in a world increasingly fragmented and inward-looking? In sub-Saharan Africa, these uncertainties meet a dramatic increase in population and a rapid expansion in the labor force, which is becoming increasingly urban.
Private Finance for Development
The Covid-19 pandemic has aggravated the tension between large development needs in infrastructure and scarce public resources. To alleviate this tension and promote a strong and job-rich recovery from the crisis, Africa needs to mobilize more financing from and to the private sector.
Cyprus
Cyprus’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility focuses on strong ownership and implementation of its program. Despite the difficult environment in which the authorities operate, the political commitment remains strong while every effort is being made to maintain strong social cohesion. Steadfast implementation has produced tangible results with indications that the healing process is already under way. Although a difficult adjustment is still ahead, with the guidance of EU and IMF staff, Cyprus has placed itself in a good position to continue along the agreed path.
2013 Pilot External Sector Report
The IMF’s Second Pilot External Sector Report presents a multilaterally consistent assessment of the largest economies’ external sector positions and policies for 2012-2013 H1. The report integrates the analysis from the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance to provide a coherent assessment of exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets. The report takes into account feedback received on the previous report by placing a greater emphasis on capital flows and through further refinements to the EBA methodology. Together with the Spillover Report and Article IV consultations (with their heightened focus on spillovers), this Report is part of a continuous effort to ensure the Fund is in a good position to address the possible effects of spillovers from members’ policies on global stability and monitor the stability of members’ external sectors in a comprehensive manner.
The Fund’s Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt - Preliminary Considerations
As a follow-up to the Executive Board's May 2013 discussion, this paper considers a possible direction for reform of the Fund's lending framework in the context of sovereign debt vulnerabilities. The primary focus of this paper relates to the Fund's exceptional access framework, since it is in this context that the Fund will most likely have to make the difficult judgment as to whether the member's problems can be resolved with or without a debt restructuring. The objective of the preliminary approaches set forth in this paper is to reduce the costs of crisis resolution for both creditors and debtors—relative to the alternatives—thereby benefitting the overall system. These ideas are market-based and their eventual implementation would require meaningful consultation with creditors.
Between Growth and Stability
Very comprehensive and based on a detailed economic and political analysis, Between Growth and Stability is clearly a vital book for both students and seasoned economists. . . Thomas Bauwens, Bibliothèque Européenne Combining economic and political science perspectives, this timely and important book describes and analyses the circumstances and events leading to the demise and subsequent reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Between Growth and Stability aims to find a solution to the dilemmas posed by fiscal policy coordination in the context of a single currency area, as well as contrasting the alternative heuristic frameworks and theoretical perspectives employed. It focuses par...
Emerging Market Volatility
Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.
Assessing Country Risk
Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.
Islamic Economics and Human Well-being
The study of Islamic economics provides an interesting complement to conventional economics as they both study economic behaviour to enhance human well-being. Muhammad Akram Khan articulates an expert view on how to use distinct approaches to achieve this in the context of Islamic economics.
