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Challenges for Central Banking
In the wake of the 2008–09 global financial crisis, central banking and monetary policy in many corners of the world came under intense pressure and entered unchartered waters. The breadth and scale of central bank operations have been modified or expanded in unprecedented and even unimaginable ways given the circumstances. Additionally, a fundamental rethinking of central banking and its policy frameworks has been taking place. This volume reflects a multilateral effort to help close the gap in our knowledge in meeting the critical challenges presented by these significant changes, in particular, those confronting central banks in Latin America. The volume’s first section provides a panoramic overview of the policy progress made to date and the challenges that lie ahead. The related issue of spillovers and monetary independence is taken up more fully in the next section. The final section presents chapters that reexamine macroprudential and monetary policies and policy frameworks from the perspective of central bank staff members from the region.
Integrating Europe's Financial Markets
By and large, EU financial integration has been a success story. Still, the reform agenda is far from finished. What are the remaining challenges? What are the gains of closer financial market integration? This IMF book tracks the European Union's journey along the path to a single financial market and identifies the challenges and priorities that remain ahead. It pays particular attention to the most recent integration efforts in the European Union following the introduction of the euro. The study looks at the importance of financial integration, in particular for economic growth, the interplay between banks and markets, and equity market integration. It closely examines the relationship between financial integration and financial stability. This interaction presents the European Union with a challenge, but also with the opportunity to play a pioneering role in developing a regional approach to financial stability that could provide lessons for the rest of the world.
Excerpt: Challenges for Central Banking
This paper provides a regional perspective on these challenges by including chapters authored by central bankers from Latin America, as well as IMF experts. The paper also provides a panoramic overview of the policy progress made to date and the challenges that lie ahead for central banks in the region. It places the subject in historical context by looking at how central banks in the region have evolved over the past century and outlines the challenges ahead in a more financially integrated global economy. Since the global financial crisis, central banking has been undergoing a massive renovation. The crisis brought to light fundamental challenges for central bankers in terms of purpose, instruments, and what we hope to achieve. An overarching theme that connects us in both advanced and emerging market economies alike is that of setting monetary policies in an increasingly financially integrated world and addressing the underlying challenges that this presents. Looking forward, concerns have shifted to the challenges of price stability in a world of globally integrated capital markets.
Multimod Mark III
This study describes the Mark III version of MULTIMOD, the IMF's multi region macroeconomic model. Mark III version of MULTIMOD differs from its predecessor in several important respects. New features include a core steady-state analogue model, a new model of teh inflation-unemployment nexus, and extended non-Ricardian specification of consumption-saving behavior, and improved specifications and estimates of investment behavior and international trade equations. In addition, the introduction of a new solution algorithm has greatly increased the robustness, speed of convergence, and accuracy of the simulations.
Saving Trends in Southeast Asia
This paper investigates the long-run pattern of private saving in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. These countries have not only maintained saving levels that are currently among the highest in the world but have also experienced a sustained increase in their rate of private saving over the past twenty years. Using a cointegration approach, this paper empirically examines the economic determinants underlying the saving trends in this group and the extent to which these countries share a common experience with respect to the factors accounting for their strong saving performance. The findings suggest that demographic shifts have been an important factor underlying regional saving trends with a similar long-run impact in each country, except for Indonesia where the effects of demographics have been even more pronounced.
Exchange Rate Assessment
The IMF's internal analysis of exchange rate issues has been guided by, and limited by, the conceptual and empirical frameworks that have emerged from the collective research of the economics profession. The research has provided several general approaches that are useful for assessing whether countries exchange rates seem broadly appropriate. One involves the calculation of purchasing power-party (PPP) measure or international competitiveness indicators. A second, known as the macroeconomic balance framework, focuses on the extent to which prevailing exchange rates and policies are consistent with simultaneous internal and external equilibrium over the medium run. Some recent extensions of the macroeconomic balance approach and the manner in which it is applied by the IMF staff are described in this paper.
Dynamic Capital Mobility in Pacific Basin Developing Countries
This paper estimates empirically the changing degree of capital mobility in several Pacific Basin countries that have pursued financial liberalization in recent years. Tracing the impact of the liberalization process on the capital account, the paper also examines the implications for monetary policy operating in this changing economic environment. Empirical estimates support an overall finding of increased capital mobility in the region over the past decade. However, country experiences, with the exception of Singapore, have been more episodic--oscillating between periods of high and low financial openness--rather than uniform in regards to changing capital mobility.
Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate
This paper examines the long-run determinants of the real exchange rate from a stock-flow perspective. The empirical analysis estimates a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, net foreign assets and other factors affecting trade flows. Using postwar data for the United States and Japan, cointegration analysis supports the finding that the structural factors underlying each country’s net trade and net foreign asset positions determine the long-run path for the real value of the dollar and the yen. The empirical analysis also provides estimates for the underlying stochastic trend in each real exchange rate series.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Western Hemisphere Department
The United States has seen an improvement in economic activity, driven by consumption, and has taken a first step toward gradual normalization of interest rates. The U.S. recovery continues to support activity in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, but China’s slowdown has reduced the demand for exports from South America. At the same time, the region’s commodity exporters have experienced further terms-of-trade shocks as commodity prices continue their decline globally. This report describes the policies and economic reforms needed to address the declining productive capacity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Three chapters assess corporate vulnerabilities in Latin America, analyze the degree of exchange rate pass-through in the region, and evaluate trends in public and private infrastructure investment.
Emerging Market Volatility
Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.
