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Emerging Economy Business Cycles
This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle volatility reduces. For an economy with limited financial openness, and a relatively open trade account, a model with exogenous terms of trade shocks is able to replicate the features of the business cycle.
Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies
How does access to credit impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that greater household access to finance smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where consumption is usually more volatile than income, indicates that financial reform further increases the volatility of consumption relative to output. We address this puzzle in the framework of an emerging economy model in which households face shocks to trend growth rate, and a fraction of them are credit constrained. Unconstrained households can respond to shocks to trend growth by raising current consumption more than rise in current income. Financial reform increases the share of such households, leading to greater relative consumption volatility. Calibration of the model for pre and post financial reform in India provides support for the model's key predictions.
Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market Setting
Some emerging economies have a relatively ineffective monetary policy transmission owing to weaknesses in the domestic financial system and the presence of a large and segmented informal sector. At the same time, small open economies can have a substantial monetary policy transmission through the exchange rate channel. In order to understand this setting, we explore a unified treatment of monetary policy transmission and exchangerate pass-through. The results for an emerging market, India, suggest that the most effective mechanism through which monetary policy impacts inflation runs through the exchange rate.
Responsible Production and Consumption
Zero Hunger (SDG-2) and Responsible Consumption and Production (SDG-12) of the United Nations are very crucial aspects for any economy in the world. In terms of Agricultural Sustainability and Food Security, the world should see to it that agriculture is sustainable enough to ensure food security for all its people. While nobody should be deprived of food for whatever reasons and at the same time nobody should use the agricultural resources (both inputs and outputs) in a manner harmful to the society at large. The use of any resources in terms of production and consumption, and vice versa, should take into account the carbon-footprint and greenhouse gas emissions. While the producers have a major role in the optimum use of the resources, the consumers, for whatever items, should take into account the responsible consumption practices. Since production and consumption are like two sides of a coin, complementary to each other, any change in one of the aspects will have its repercussions on the other one. So, it is a collective responsibility of everyone to ensure that things are practiced the way they are supposed to.
Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India
India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper draws on Indian macroeconomic developments since 2000 and the experience of other countries that adopted FIT to bring out insights on how credible policy with an emphasis on a strong nominal anchor can reduce the impact of supply shocks and improve macroeconomic stability. For illustrating the key issues given the unique structural characteristics of India and the policy options under an FIT framework, the paper describes an analytical framework using the core quarterly projection model (QPM). Simulations of the QPM are carried out to illustrate the monetary policy responses under different types of uncertainty and to bring out the importance of gaining credibility for improving monetary policy efficacy.
Opportunities and Challenges in Development
This book provides a broad overview of the current research on various aspects of development, with a focus on India. The content and treatment of the subject of development in this volume is distinctive in many ways. It is a balanced mix of theory and practical elements, dealing with a number of issues at micro as well as macro levels. The analyses of the current socio-economic problems are attempted in an elegant yet simple manner which makes it equally useful for an aspiring researcher in economics or any inter disciplinary field. The methodologies of the articles include analytical verbal argumentative logic, theoretical constructs or different versions of statistical, econometric or pro...
Export Versus FDI in Services
In the literature on exports and investment, most productive firms are seen to invest abroad. In the Helpman et al. (2004) model, costs of transportation play a critical role in the decision about whether to serve foreign customers by exporting, or by producing abroad. We consider the case of tradable services, where the marginal cost of transport is near zero. We argue that in the purchase of services, buyers face uncertainty about product quality, especially when production is located far away. Firm optimisation then leads less productive firms to self-select themselves for FDI. We test this prediction with data from the Indian software industry and find support for it.
Quarterly Projection Model for India
This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.
The Oxford Handbook of the Indian Economy
India's remarkable economic growth in recent years has made it one of the fastest growing economies in the world. This Oxford Handbook reflects India's growing economic importance on the world stage, and features research on core topics by leading scholars to understand the Indian economic miracle and the obstacles India faces in transforming itself into a modern 21st-century economy.
