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Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring
We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as data are released and revisions become available. We apply the framework to the G-7 countries and study various aspects of national and global business cycles, obtaining three main results. First, our measure of the global business cycle, the common G-7 real activity factor, explains a significant amount of cross-country variation and tracks the major global cyclical events of the past forty years. Second, the common G-7 factor and the idiosyncratic country factors play different roles at different times in shaping national economic activity. Finally, the degree of G-7 business cycle synchronization among country factors has changed over time.
Money, Payments, and Liquidity, second edition
A new edition of a book presenting a unified framework for studying the role of money and liquid assets in the economy, revised and updated. In Money, Payments, and Liquidity, Guillaume Rocheteau and Ed Nosal provide a comprehensive investigation into the economics of money, liquidity, and payments by explicitly modeling the mechanics of trade and its various frictions (including search, private information, and limited commitment). Adopting the last generation of the New Monetarist framework developed by Ricardo Lagos and Randall Wright, among others, Nosal and Rocheteau provide a dynamic general equilibrium framework to examine the frictions in the economy that make money and liquid assets...
Global Versus Local Perspectives on Finance and Accounting
This proceedings volume examines accounting and financial issues and trends from both global and local economic perspectives. Featuring selected contributions presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Finance and Accounting (ACFA) held in Prague, Czech Republic, this book offers a mixture of research methods and micro- and macroeconomic approaches to depict a detailed picture of the impact of global and local determinants on the globalized economy. The global perspectives versus local specifics make the volume useful for not only academics and scholars, but also for regulators and policy makers when deliberating the potential outcome of competing regulatory mechanisms. The Annual Conference on Finance and Accounting (ACFA) has become one of the biggest conferences in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region solely oriented to contemporary research in finance and accounting. Bringing together researchers and scholars from all over the world, the conference provides a platform in which thoughts, visions, and contemporary developments in the field of finance and accounting are discussed.
The Making of National Economic Forecasts
In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.
Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators
The analysis of coincident and leading indicators can help policymakers gauge the short-term direction of economic activity. While such analysis is well established in advanced economies, it has received relatively little attention in many emerging market and developing economies, reflecting in part the lack of sufficient historical data to determine the reliability of these indicators. This paper presents an econometric approach to deriving composite indexes of coincident and leading indicators for a small open economy, Jordan. The results show that, even with limited monthly observations, it is possible to establish meaningful economic and statistically significant relations between indicators from different sectors of the economy and the present and future direction of economic activity.
AI and Financial Markets
Artificial intelligence (AI) is regarded as the science and technology for producing an intelligent machine, particularly, an intelligent computer program. Machine learning is an approach to realizing AI comprising a collection of statistical algorithms, of which deep learning is one such example. Due to the rapid development of computer technology, AI has been actively explored for a variety of academic and practical purposes in the context of financial markets. This book focuses on the broad topic of “AI and Financial Markets”, and includes novel research associated with this topic. The book includes contributions on the application of machine learning, agent-based artificial market simulation, and other related skills to the analysis of various aspects of financial markets.
Macroeconomics
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Computational Finance and Its Applications III
Featuring papers from the Third International Conference on Computational Finance and its Applications, the text includes papers that encompass a wide range of topics such as modern financial services technologies, derivatives pricing, portfolio management and asset allocation, and intelligent trading agents.
Introduction of a New Conceptual Framework for Government Debt Management
Against the background of the financial-cum-sovereign debt crisis, government debt managers are currently faced by a challenging environment. One key element in that respect is the analysis and forecast of interest rates, which is important for achieving the strategic objective of low borrowing costs. Anja Hubig develops a new mathematical method to estimate the term structure of interest rates, that is adopted to describe the term structure dynamics within a stochastic setting. The introduced model is capable to capture the complex behavior of the entire yield curve with a reduced set of parameters. It essentially ensures a comprehensive analysis of the costs and risks associated with individual funding strategies, and thus effectively supports the selection of a long-term optimal debt portfolio composition.
