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Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Amidst a global backdrop of persistent post-COVID inflation and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region have faced strong price pressures in recent years. Inflation is estimated to have peaked in early 2023, but still exceeds central bank targets. In particular, core inflation remains stubbornly high reflecting a combination of second-round effects, surges in global energy and food prices, and domestic demand pressures. More broadly, uncertainty and downside risks also weigh on the economic outlook, including due to regional tensions, financial turmoil related to international monetary policy normalization, and a growth slowdown ...
Reducing Dollarization in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Declining but still high dollarization rates in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region affect macroeconomic stability, monetary policy transmission, and financial sector development. Although several studies have investigated the dynamics of dollarization in the CCA, the relative roles of macrofinancial policies and financial market development in the de-dollarization process have not yet been assessed empirically. This paper takes stock of de-dollarization efforts and explores the short-term drivers of financial de‐dollarization in the CCA region. It highlights that there remains significant scope to further reduce dollarization through continued progress in strengthening macroeconomic policy frameworks and in developing markets and institutions.
COVID-19
This comprehensive book looks at COVID-19, along with other recent infectious disease outbreaks, with the broad aim of providing constructive lessons and critical reflections from across a wide range of perspectives and disciplinary interests within the risk analysis field. The chapters in this edited volume probe the roles of risk communication, risk perception, and risk science in helping to manage the ever-growing pandemic that was declared a public health emergency of international concern in the beginning of 2020. A few chapters in the book also include relevant content discussing past disease outbreaks, such as Zika, Ebola and MERS-CoV. This book distils past and present knowledge, appraises current responses, introduces new ideas and data, and offers key recommendations, which will help illuminate different aspects of the global health crisis. It also explores how different constructive insights offered from a ‘risk perspective’ might inform decisions on how best to proceed in response as the pandemic continues. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of the Journal of Risk Research.
Trade, Labour and Sustainable Development
Examining the relationship between trade and labour regulation in light of the pressing need to promote sustainable development, Tonia Novitz interrogates how international legal architecture could be reformed so that no one in the world of work gets left behind. She highlights the dangers of pursuing labour and environmental issues on parallel tracks without recognising how they interact, ultimately arguing for the crafting of the content and application of trade rules through participatory processes, which involve the inclusive representation of all sectors of the labour market and all parts of the world.
United Arab Emirates
This paper outlines a consolidated Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF), which is comprehensive and forward looking, could set a clear direction for fiscal policy for the country as a whole and better align resource allocation with local and national developments plans underpinned by goals embodied in the Vision 2021. High quality of public financial management systems overall is also key ingredient of an appropriate MTFF. The framework could consider explicitly expenditure needs in critical areas such as education and health care. Monitoring of contingent liabilities needs to be strengthened, including covering private and public partnerships (PPPs) and government related enterprises (GREs) including their global subsidiaries. Data sharing across all levels of governments, including the central bank, could also be strengthened. The federal government and the Emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai have started using MTFFs to inform their fiscal policy choices, albeit to different degrees.
Space Fostering Latin American Societies
This peer-reviewed book presents a comprehensive overview of the role space is playing in enabling Latin America to fulfil its developmental aspirations. Following on from the highly acclaimed Parts 1 to 3, it explains how space and its applications can be used to support the development of the full range and diversity of Latin America societies, while being driven by Latin American goals. The Latin American space sector is currently undergoing a phase of rapid and dynamic expansion, with new actors entering the field and with space applications increasingly being used to support the continent’s social, economic, and political development. All across Latin America, attention is shifting to...
How Public Investment Could Help Strengthen Iran’s Growth Potential: Issues and Options
Public investment is key to growth in developing oil-exporting countries and oil revenue is an important source of finance for public investment. Assessing the growth impact of public investment in Iran under various investment scaling-up (gradual, aggressive, and conservative) and oil price (baseline and adverse) scenarios, this paper shows that because of absorptive capacity constraint and investment inefficiency the growth outcome of an aggressive investment scaling-up is not significantly different from a conservative or a gradual scenario while its costs, in terms of fiscal adjustment, are significantly higher, especially during low oil price periods. An improvement in investment efficiency has a significant positive impact on growth outcome and leads to higher private consumption and investment. Using an oil fund, on the other hand, can help contain the size of fiscal adjustments, although it would result in a larger appreciation of real exchange rate and deterioration in the current account balance.
Summary Proceedings of the Fifty-Sixth Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors, September 29, 2002
The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings.
Business Cycle with Bank Intermediation in Oil Economies
The structural model in this paper proposes a micro-founded framework that incorporates an active banking sector with an oil-producing sector. The primary goal of adding a banking sector is to examine the role of an interbank market on shocks, introduce a national development fund and study its link to the banking sector and the government. The government and the national development fund directly play key roles in the propagation of the oil shock. In contrast, the banking sector and the labor market, through perfect substitution between the oil and non-oil sectors, have major indirect impacts in spreading shocks.
How to Control the Fiscal Costs of Public-Private Partnerships
This note discusses what finance ministries can do to ensure that public-private partnerships (PPPs) are used wisely. By inviting private participation in infrastructure development and service provision, PPPs can help improve public services. Yet, strong governance institutions are needed to manage risks and avoid unexpected costs from PPPs. While in the short term, PPPs may appear cheaper than traditional public investment, over time they can turn out to be more expensive and undermine fiscal sustainability, particularly when governments ignore or are unaware of their deferred costs and associated fiscal risks. To use PPPs wisely governments should (1) develop and implement clear rules for their use; (2) identify, quantify, and disclose PPP risks and expected costs; and (3) reform budget and government accounting frameworks to capture all fiscal costs comprehensively.
