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First multi-year cumulation covers six years: 1965-70.
Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel
This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables for a panel of OECD countries for the period 1989-2012. We find that two global factors—the global monetary and fiscal policy stances—explain more than 60 percent of the variance in the long-term interest rates. Compared to the estimates from models which do not account for global factors, we find that the importance of domestic variables in explaining long-term interest rates is weakened. Moreover, the propagation of global fiscal shocks is larger in economies characterized by macroeconomic and institutional weaknesses.
Da Lacan in Italia a SpazioZero
La psicoanalisi, in quanto disciplina, vive in questo tempo momenti travagliati. È esistito nel recente passato e esiste tuttora tra i suoi praticanti uno straordinario tratto oblativo, tendente a iscrivere senza dubbi di sorta la psicoanalisi nella classe delle psicoterapie, anche in forza dell’innegabile vantaggio professionale offerto a ogni “terapia” istituzionalizzata dal Servizio Sanitario Nazionale. Così, dopo avere rappresentato negli anni ‘70 e ‘80 del secolo scorso una importante fonte di ispirazione per la domanda culturale delle nuove generazioni, negli ultimi anni del ‘900 questo slancio, ideale e idealizzato, è venuto a confronto con il Reale e, come sempre capit...
L' Erba Del '75
Un uomo scombinato, una vita scombinata, amori scombinati.Umorismo e amarezza in un racconto moderno.
Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates
This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.
