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Firms’ Resilience to Energy Shocks and Response to Fiscal Incentives: Assessing the Impact of 2022 Energy Crisis
The energy price shock in 2022 led to government support for firms in some countries, sparking debate about the rationale and the nature of such support. The results from nationally representative firm surveys in the United States and Germany indicate that firms in these countries were generally resilient. Coping strategies adopted by firms included the pass-through of higher costs to consumers, adjustment of profit margins (United States) and investments in energy saving and efficiency (Germany). Firms in energy-intensive industries would have been significantly more affected if international energy prices were fully passed through to domestic prices in Europe. Survey responses further reveal that most firms are uncertain about the impact of recent policy announcments on green subsidies. Firms take advantage of fiscal incentives to accelerate their climate-related investment plans are often those that have previous plans to do so. These findings suggest better targeting and enhancing policy certainty will be important when facilitate the green transition among firms.
Essays on Capitalism & The U.S. Economy
ESSAYS ON CAPITALISM & THE U.S. ECONOMY The book is targeted toward an audience of Central Bankers with backgrounds in both Macro Social-Work and Economics. The book is intended to be more of a presentation of ideas and feedback as opposed to a thorough analysis of data. Some data will be referenced, but not extensively. Readers should be able to get through the book in a single sitting of one hour, after which they should have a better sense of how we as Central Bankers can add more value to our Capitalist Economy as a whole and to individual and family participants. The perspective is a big picture view on what is going on in society within the context of our Capitalist Economy; and suggestions are given as to what actions can be taken at the Fed to help advance society forward within the context of the dual-mandate and the 5 core duties; and toward a vision of Permaculture Capitalism.
Reviving Rural America
Debunks myths about rural people, places, and policies, offering a vision for a more just and resilient society.
Annual Report
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Middle Class Meltdown in America
Based on income alone, nearly half of all adults in the United States can be considered "middle class," complete with the reassurance of a steady job, the ability to raise a family, and the comforts of owning a home. And yet, for many, because of structural forces reshaping the finances of the American middle class, the margin between a stable life and a fragile one is narrowing. The new edition of Middle-Class Meltdown in America: Causes, Consequences, and Remedies tells the story of the struggling American middle class by weaving together sociological and economical research, personalized portraits and examples, and a profusion of current data illustrating significant social, economic, and...
Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence?
How often have wage-price spirals occurred, and what has happened in their aftermath? We investigate this by creating a database of past wage-price spirals among a wide set of advanced economies going back to the 1960s. We define a wage-price spiral as an episode where at least three out of four consecutive quarters saw accelerating consumer prices and rising nominal wages. Perhaps surprisingly, only a small minority of such episodes were followed by sustained acceleration in wages and prices. Instead, inflation and nominal wage growth tended to stabilize, leaving real wage growth broadly unchanged. A decomposition of wage dynamics using a wage Phillips curve suggests that nominal wage growth normally stabilizes at levels that are consistent with observed inflation and labor market tightness. When focusing on episodes that mimic the recent pattern of falling real wages and tightening labor markets, declining inflation and nominal wage growth increases tended to follow – thus allowing real wages to catch up. We conclude that an acceleration of nominal wages should not necessarily be seen as a sign that a wage-price spiral is taking hold.
Region Focus
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The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection
In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights significant differences in Phillips curve parameters across Europe’s economies. Inflation is more sensitive to domestic slack and external price pressures in emerging European economies compared to their advanced counterparts, which contributed to a greater passthrough of global commodity price shocks into domestic prices, and, consequently, to larger increases in inflation rates. Across Europe, inflation also appears to have become increasingly backward looking and more sensitive to commodity price shocks since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding helps explain why conventional (Phillips curve) inflation models consistently underpredicted the 2021-2022 inflation surge, although it remains too early to conclude there has been a structural break in the inflation process.
Regionfocus
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Cowan Connections
Samuel Cowan (parents unknown) was born about 1770 in the Carolinas. He married Sarah Margaret Keith (daughter of Nichodemus Keith and Margaret Borden) about 1800 in Tennessee. They had 8 children. Samuel died before 1837 in Tennessee or Mississippi. Sarah died in 1849 in Cookville, Titus County, Texas. Their descendants have lived in Tennessee, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, and other areas in the United States.
