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Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy - Considerations for Low Income Countries
This note explores how characteristics of financial systems commonly observed in low income countries may shape the approach to the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy. It explores the implications of the ongoing process of financial and institutional development for the conduct of macroprudential policy in these countries. This note is a supplement to the Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy.
Peru
Peru stands out among Latin American countries as an example of successful economic reforms over the past decade. This comprehensive look at Peru's economy traces that country's journey from a debt crisis in the 1980s to having buffers in place that allowed it to emerge unscathed from the global financial crisis. The book examines the steps Peru undertook to achieve these results and extracts lessons to be learned. Chapters are written by IMF staff and Peruvian economists.
Panama
Panama’s extensive trade and financial linkages make it vulnerable to adverse external shocks, and this would have a sizable impact on Panama’s real activity. In the absence of monetary policy, macroprudential policy tools could usefully complement microprudential tools. A macroprudential supervisory body must possess the ability or power to collect and analyze firm-, market-, and global-level data to detect risks before they develop into full-blown crises. This study analyzes Panama’s tax structure, performance, and administration in order to identify priority areas for further strengthening
Peru
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Peru’s economy continues to be a leader in high growth and low inflation in the region, which has been achieved through a prudent macroeconomic policy implementation, a far-reaching structural reform agenda and taking advantage of the benign external environment. After reaching 4.7 percent in 2011, end-period inflation fell to 2.6 percent in 2012, within the 1–3 percent target range. Stimulative monetary and fiscal policies played an instrumental role in supporting the recovery. The outlook remains favorable in the near term despite challenging external conditions.
Official Dollarization As a Monetary Regime
This paper examines El Salvador’s transition to official dollarization by comparing aspects of this regime to the fixed exchange rate regime prevailing in the 1990s. Commercial bank interest rates are analyzed under an uncovered interest parity framework, and it is found that dollarization lowered rates by 4 to 5 percent by reducing currency risk. This has generated net annual savings averaging 1⁄2 percent of GDP for the private sector and 1⁄4 percent of GDP for the public sector (net of the losses from foregone seigniorage). Estimated Taylor rules show a strong positive association between Salvadoran output and U.S. Federal Reserve policy since dollarization, implying that this policy has served to stabilize economic activity more than it did under the peg and more than policy rates in Central American countries with independent monetary policy have done. Dollarization does not appear to have affected the transmission mechanism, as pass-through of monetary policy to commercial interest rates has been similar to pass-through under the peg and in the rest of Central America.
Russian Federation
This paper presents key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment for the Russian Federation. There are significant vulnerabilities and weaknesses in the financial sector, although given its small size, the macroeconomy would be relatively little affected by the immediate impact of any financial sector distress. Several interlinked issues cut across the banking, capital markets, and insurance sectors and contribute to the identified vulnerabilities. According to official data, banks are in general well capitalized, but the quality of capital is questionable, and loan loss provisioning may not fully reflect risks.
The Leisure Gains from International Trade
The average number of hours worked has been declining in many countries. This can be explained if workers have preferences with income effects outweighing substitution effects. Then, an optimal response to rising income is to reduce labor supply to enjoy more leisure. In this paper, I develop a novel structural link between trade and aggregate labor supply. Using a multi-country Ricardian trade model, I show that reducing trade barriers leads to fewer hours worked while being compatible with an increase in welfare. In addition, I derive an hours-to-trade elasticity and estimate it by exploiting exogenous income variation generated by aggregate trade. On average, I quantify that the rise in trade openness between 1950 and 2014 explains 7 percent of the total decline in hours per worker in high-income countries.
Paraguay
Paraguay's economy had a strong year in 2023, growing 4.7 percent. Growth this year continues to be led by robust agricultural production, exports, and high electricity generation. Monetary policy was adjusted timely to rapidly falling inflation and is now approaching a neutral stance. The fiscal position deteriorated but consolidation has started. The external current account is expected to stay close to balance. Banks remain profitable and well provisioned.
