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The Mechanics of a Strong Euro Area
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 286

The Mechanics of a Strong Euro Area

Among member states, many structural weaknesses were exposed when economic performance declined significantly and financial markets became more discerning. This book focuses on the analytical underpinnings of real-time policy advice given to euro area policymakers during four cycles of the IMF’s annual Article IV consultations (2012–15) with euro area authorities.

Challenges to Monetary Policy from Financial Globalization
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 45

Challenges to Monetary Policy from Financial Globalization

The question of how India should adapt monetary policy to ongoing financial globalization has gained prominence with the recent surge in capital inflows. This paper documents the degree to which India has become financially globalized, both in absolute terms and relative to emerging and developed countries. We find that despite a relatively low degree of openness, India's domestic monetary conditions are highly influenced by global factors. We then review the experiences of countries that have adapted to financial globalization, drawing lessons for India. While we find no strong relationship between the degree of stability in monetary conditions and the broad monetary policy regime, our findings suggest that improvements in monetary operations and communication?sometimes prompted by a shift to an IT regime?have helped stabilize broader monetary conditions. In addition, the experience of countries which used non-standard instruments suggests that room to regulate capital flows effectively through capital controls diminishes as financial integration increases.

Globalizing in Hard Times
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 255

Globalizing in Hard Times

In Globalizing in Hard Times, Leonardo Martinez-Diaz examines the sudden and substantial increase in cross-border ownership of commercial banks in countries where bank ownership had long been restricted by local rules. Many parties—the World Bank and the IMF, the world's largest commercial banks, their home governments, and their negotiators—had been pushing for a relaxation of ownership rules since the early 1980s and into the 1990s, when bank profitability levels in advanced industrial societies went flat. In their hunt for higher returns on assets, the major banks looked to expand business overseas, but through the mid-1990s their efforts to impose more liberal ownership regimes in na...

Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 28

Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies

We analyze the link between nonperforming loans (NPL) and macroeconomic performance using two complementary approaches. First, we investigate the macroeconomic determinants of NPL in panel regressions and confirm that adverse macroeconomic developments are associated with rising NPL. Second, we investigate the feedback between NPL and its macroeconomic determinants in a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model. The impulse response functions (IRFs) attribute to NPL a central role in the linkages between credit market frictions and macrofinancial vulnerability. They suggest that a sharp increase in NPL triggers long-lived tailwinds that cripple macroeconomic performance from several fronts.

Politics for Profit
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 353

Politics for Profit

Businesspeople run for office to protect their firms' interests against competitors and shape government to work for the business community.

2013 Spillover Report - Analytical Underpinnings and Other Background
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 171

2013 Spillover Report - Analytical Underpinnings and Other Background

High uncertainty in general, and high policy uncertainty more specifically, can have important impact on global investment and output growth. Much of the recent policy uncertainty emanated from the United States and Europe—the world’s two largest economies. Spillovers from policy uncertainty can occur through several channels. Trade can be affected if increased policy uncertainty adversely affects economic activity and import demand in the United States and Europe. Policy uncertainty could also raise global risk aversion, resulting in sharp corrections in financial markets and capital outflows from emerging markets. This background note attempts to quantify the impact of U.S. and Europea...

The Euro’s Effecton Trade Imbalances
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 32

The Euro’s Effecton Trade Imbalances

When does trade become a one-way relationship? We study bilateral trade balances for a sample of 18 European countries over the period from 1948 through 2008. We find that, with the introduction of the euro, trade imbalances among euro area members widened considerably, even after allowing for permanent asymmetries in trade competitiveness within pairs of countries or in the overall trade competitiveness of individual countries. This is consistent with indications that pair-wise trade tends to be more balanced when nominal exchange rates are flexible. Intra-euro area imbalances also seem to have become more persistent with the introduction of the euro, some of which is linked to labor market inflexibility. Reviewing the direction of imbalances, we find that bilateral trade surpluses are decreasing in the real exchange rate, decreasing in growth differentials, and increasing in the relative volatility of national business cycles. Finally, countries with relatively higher fiscal deficits and less flexible labor and product markets exhibit systematically lower trade surpluses than others.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 3
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 193

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 3

This last issue for 2005 comprises seven new papers, including a contribution to the journal's occasional Special Data Section about domestic debt markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, and also an in-depth look at the internal job market for entry-level economists at the IMF. The remaining articles cover toics as diverse as: modeling of asset markets, exchange rates in developing countries, international bank claims on Latin America, the effectiveness of "early warning" systems, and the use (by emerging market countries) of the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2012
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 423

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2012

"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity" (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents - Democratic Change in the Arab World, Past and Present Eric Chaney (Harvard University) - Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession James Stock (Harvard University) and Mark Watson (Princeton University) - Macroeconomic Effects of FOMC Forward Guidance Jeffrey Campbell, Charles Evans, Jonas Fisher, and Alejandro Justiniano (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) - Is the Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption? Karen Dynan (Brookings Institution) - The Euro's Three Crises Jay Shambaugh (Georgetown University) - Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy J. Bradford DeLong (University of California-Berkeley) and Lawrence Summers (Harvard University )

Land Allocation in Vietnam's Agrarian Transition
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 32

Land Allocation in Vietnam's Agrarian Transition

Abstract: While liberalizing key factor markets is a crucial step in the transition from a socialist control-economy to a market economy, the process can be stalled by imperfect information, high transaction costs, and covert resistance from entrenched interests. Ravallion and van de Walle study land-market adjustment in the wake of Vietnam's reforms aiming to establish a free market in land-use rights following de-collectivization. Inefficiencies in the initial administrative allocation are measured against an explicit counterfactual market solution. The authors' tests using a farm-household panel data set spanning the reforms suggest that land allocation responded positively but slowly to the inefficiencies of the administrative allocation. They find no sign that the transition favored the land rich or that it was thwarted by the continuing power over land held by local officials. This paper"a joint product of the Poverty Team and the Public Services Team, Development Research Group"is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the welfare impacts of major policy reforms.