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Using Scenarios
This is the first book to offer detailed guidance on how scenarios can be used to help organizations make their toughest decisions in a world of ever-escalating crisis and opportunity. To reap the full benefits of scenarios, you have to be able to apply them in the real world. This groundbreaking book goes beyond the theoretical to clearly explain different ways scenarios can be used in business decision-making—from strategic planning and financial modeling to crisis response. Connecting scenarios to strategy and action can have many benefits, including the ability to react quickly, anticipate major changes in the environment, and identify major opportunities. Thomas Chermack, a top expert on scenario planning, offers seven specific ways organizations can use scenarios and provides a wide variety of examples, along with proven processes, exercises, and workshops that have been used successfully in organizations across industries and countries for more than fifteen years.
Scenario Planning in Organizations
Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment. This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a s...
Theory Building in Applied Disciplines
Theory matters in applied disciplines—fields that apply scholarly research to professional practice, such as management, social work, health care, human resource development, education, and many others. Because these disciplines deal with human beings in the real world, a flawed theory can result in actual harm to people and institutions. When faced with a professional problem, practitioners resort to the latest fad or simply throw everything and anything at it because of the lack of sound theory. Scholars deal with problems by slicing them into small segments to study them but fail to address the practical implications. What's needed is a way to unite research and practice to create robus...
Foundations of Scenario Planning
Pierre Wack was head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch / Shell Oil in London for just over ten years. He died in 1997. He was a pioneer of what we know today as scenario planning – an alternative and complement to strategic planning. Scenarios explore a variety of possible futures for examining decisions in organizational planning. Pierre was a unique man with interests in Indian and Japanese cultures and traditions. He travelled extensively and led a unique life that involved long periods of visiting gurus in India and extended sabbaticals in Japan. His experiences with Eastern thought no doubt shaped his ability to evolve the scenario method at Shell, and as a result he was able to lea...
Scenario Planning in Organizations
With scenario planning, leaders, executives, and decision makers can develop strategies for multiple futures, making their organizations resilient, agile, and capable of adapting to new circumstances at the speed of change. Here Thomas Chermack addresses the method’s complexities and, unlike other books, deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying those scenarios and assessing their impact. This is the most comprehensive guide available to the scenario planning process, offering a thorough discussion of the method’s theoretical foundations and detailing a five-phase scenario planning system. Chermack uses a real-world case study to illuminate the entire process—from project preparation to scenario exploration, development, implementation, and project assessment. He provides specific techniques and tools for gathering and analyzing relevant data, structuring and managing projects, and avoiding common pitfalls.
Foundations of Human Resource Development
This book is directed toward several audiences. First, it is designed for university courses in HRD. We argue that every HRD academic program needs a course that teaches the foundations of the field. Second, HRD researchers will find the book thought-provoking and useful as a guide to core research issues. Third, it is written for reflective practitioners who actively seek to lead the field as it grows and matures. Finally, almost every practitioner will find parts of the book that will add depth to their practice.
Scenario Planning
Is your business ready for the future? Scenario planning is a fascinating, yet still underutilized, business tool that can be of immense value to a company's strategic planning process. It allows companies to visualize the impact that a portfolio of possible futures could have on their competitiveness. It helps decision-makers see opportunities and threats that could emerge beyond their normal planning horizon. Scenario Planning serves as a guide to taking a long-term look at your business, your industry, and the world, posing thoughtful questions about the possible consequences of some current (and possible future) trends. This book will help you: Outline (and help you prepare for) any trends that could play out in the future that could change the political, social, and economic landscapes and significantly impact your business Explore the impact of technological advances and the emergence of new competitors to your business Examine challenges that are only dimly recognizable as potential problems today This visual book will help you answer this question: Is my organization ready for every possibility?
Scenario-based Strategic Planning
In a world characterized by increasing complexity and volatility, managers must be able to flexibly adapt their strategies to changing environmental conditions. Traditional strategic management frameworks often fail in this context. Therefore, we present "scenario-based strategic planning" as a framework for strategic management in an uncertain world. Previous approaches to scenario planning were complex and focused on the long term, but the approach developed by Roland Berger and the Center for Strategy and Scenario Planning at HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management is different. By designing appropriate tools and integrating scenario planning into strategic planning, we have made our approach less complex and easier for firms to apply. We illustrate the approach with examples from different industries.
Responsible Leadership
These chapters on ‘Responsible Leadership’ represent the latest thinking on a topic of increasing relevance in a connected world. There are many challenges that still remain when it comes to establishing responsible leadership both in theory and practice. Whilst offering conceptualisations for the improvement of leadership is a first and perhaps easier response, what is more difficult is to facilitate the actual change to happen. These chapters will not only generate interest in the emerging domain of studies on responsible leadership, but also will pave the way for future research in this area in the years to come. Previously Published in the Journal of Business Ethics, Volume 98 Supplement 2, 2011
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