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The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies
We analyze how regulatory constraints on household leverage—in the form of loan-to-income and loan-to-value limits—a?ect residential mortgage credit and house prices as well as other asset classes not directly targeted by the limits. Supervisory loan level data suggest that mortgage credit is reallocated from low-to high-income borrowers and from urban to rural counties. This reallocation weakens the feedback loop between credit and house prices and slows down house price growth in “hot” housing markets. Consistent with constrained lenders adjusting their portfolio choice, more-a?ected banks drive this reallocation and substitute their risk-taking into holdings of securities and corporate credit.
Zombies on the Brink: Evidence from Japan on the Reversal of Monetary Policy Effectiveness
How does unconventional monetary policy affect corporate capital structure and investment decisions? We study the transmission channel of quantitative easing and its potential diminishing returns on investment from a corporate finance perspective. Using a rich bank-firm matched data of Japanese firms with information on corporate debt and investment, we study how firms adjust their capital structure in response to the changes in term premia. Investment responds positively to a reduction in the term premium on average. However, there is a significant degree of cross-sectional variation in firm response: healthier firms increase capital spending and cash holdings, while financially vulnerable firms take advantage of lower long-term yields to refinance without increasing investment.
Financial Stability in a Higher-for-Longer Interest Rate Environment The Case of the Middle East and North Africa
This paper assesses the state and resilience of corporate and banking sectors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment using granular micro data to conduct the first cross-country corporate and banking sector stress tests for the MENA region. The results suggest that corporate sector debt at risk may increase sizably from 12 to 30 percent of total corporate debt. Banking systems would be broadly resilient in an adverse scenario featuring higher interest rates, corporate sector stress, and rising liquidity pressures with Tier-1 capital ratios declining by 2.3 percentage points in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and 4.0 percentage points in non-GCC MENA countries. In the cross-section of banks, there are pockets of vulnerabilities as banks with higher ex-ante vulnerabilities and state-owned banks suffer greater losses. While manageable, the capital losses in the adverse scenario could limit lending and adversely impact growth.
What Went Wrong with Capitalism
A century of expanding government has distorted financial markets, stoked massive inequality, and soaked America in debt. Capitalism didn’t fail, it was ruined... What went wrong with capitalism? Ruchir Sharma’s account is not like any you will have heard before. He says progressives are right, in part, when they mock modern capitalism as “socialism for the rich.” For a century, governments have expanded in just about every measurable dimension, from spending to regulation and the scale of financial rescues when the economy wobbles. The result is expensive state guarantees for everyone—bailouts for the rich, entitlements for the middle class, welfare for the poor. Taking you back t...
The Paradox of Risk
For decades, economic policymakers have worshipped at the altar of combating inflation, reducing public deficits, and discouraging risky behavior by investors. That mindset made them hesitate when the global financial crisis erupted in 2007–08. In the face of the worst economic disaster in 75 years, they often worried excessively about the risks and possible losses from their actions, rather than moving forcefully to support financial institutions, governments, and people. Ángel Ubide's provocative thesis in Paradox of Risk is that central banks' fear of inflation and risk taking has hampered their efforts to revive global prosperity. In their confusion, he argues, policymakers made the recovery weaker. He calls on world leaders to abandon old shibboleths and learn the lessons from the financial crisis and its sluggish aftermath. Ubide mobilizes a wealth of research on the experience from the last decade, urging policymakers to leave their "comfort zone," embrace risk taking, and take bolder action to brighten the world's economic prospects. (The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) provided funding for this study).
World Development Report 2022
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered the largest global economic crisis in more than a century. In 2020, economic activity contracted in 90 percent of countries, the world economy shrank by about 3 percent, and global poverty increased for the first time in a generation. Governments responded rapidly with fiscal, monetary, and financial policies that alleviated the worst immediate economic impacts of the crisis. Yet the world must still contend with the significant longer-term financial and economic risks caused by, or exacerbated by, the pandemic and the government responses needed to mitigate its effects. World Development Report 2022: Finance for an Equitable Recovery examines the central role...
Leveraged
Introduction : the new economics of debt and financial fragility /Moritz Schularik --Part 1. Finance unbound : the rise of finance and the economy.How to think about finance /Atif Mian ; comment by Karen Dynan --Reconsidering the costs and benefits of debt booms for the economy /Emil Verner ; comment by Holger Mueller --Part 2. Risk-taking : incentives, investors, institutions.Are bank CEO's to blame? /Rüdiger Fahlenbrach ; comment by Sameul G. Hanson --A new narrative of investors, subprime lending, and the 2008 crisis /Stefania Albanesi ; comment by Fernando Ferreira --Bank capital before and after financial crises /Òscar Jordà, Björn Richter, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor ; co...
Monetary Policy and Its Unintended Consequences
A call for an end to aggressive monetary policy and a return to smart growth from an eminent researcher and former central banker. Central banks took extraordinary measures to stabilize markets and enhance growth after the financial crisis of 2008, but without giving much thought to the long-term consequences. It was a response, Raghuram Rajan argues, that set a dangerous precedent: the more centrals bank did, the more they were expected to do, and the more they ended up doing. Monetary Policy and Its Unintended Consequences looks back at what this meant for where we are now. A former central banker who foresaw the 2008 crisis and wrote a bestselling book about the risks of excessively accom...
Eurotragedy
EuroTragedy is an incisive exploration of the tragedy of how the European push for integration was based on illusions and delusions pursued in the face of warnings that the pursuit of unity was based on weak foundations.
The European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council
This book provides a comprehensive assessment of the various dimensions of the relationship between the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council, and highlights how relations are yet to reach their full potential. Despite both parties sharing a number of common interests, including trade, energy, climate change, security and cultural cooperation, the multilateral cooperation framework remains limited, with most engagement taking place bilaterally, between individual European and GCC countries. The book reassesses the potential and prospects for the EU’s engagement with GCC countries based on the recalibration and reconciliation of both parties’ national and regional interests. Taking a thematic approach, each of the three sections of the book examines a key dimension of the relationship, its current status and its path forward.
