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Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing of the Insurance Sector
Over the last decade, stress testing has become a central aspect of the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance work. Recently, more emphasis has also been placed on the role of insurance for financial stability analysis. This paper reviews the current state of system-wide solvency stress tests for insurance based on a comparative review of national practices and the experiences from Fund’s FSAP program with the aim of providing practical guidelines for the coherent and consistent implementation of such exercises. The paper also offers recommendations on improving the current insurance stress testing approaches and presentation of results.
Kingdom of the Netherlands-The Netherlands
Dutch financial institutions are exposed to the effects of climate change through both physical and transition risks. Physical risks are mostly represented by flood risk while transition risks are primarily driven by the structure of the Dutch economy, including a significant exposure to agriculture. The Dutch authorities have made significant efforts to respond to climate related risks comprehensively through identification of risk drivers and analysis of their impacts, accompanied by strong policy initiatives aimed for mitigation and adaptation.
Canada
This paper discusses Canada’s Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) impact on the insurance sector of a low interest rate environment. It highlights that actuarial standards on valuation of liabilities require that assumed reinvestment rates take increasing account of current market rates that led to higher liabilities as low rates persisted. The note outlines the effect of Canadian accounting and actuarial standards that further increases in liabilities need to be recognized in the short term. Policy measures have been undertaken by Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) in the banking sector to address broader risks.
Botswana
The FSAP mission conducted a risk analysis for large insurance companies and retirement funds. Building on the narrative of the adverse macrofinancial scenario also used in the banking ST, the focus of the analysis in the insurance sector was on solvency. Sensitivity analyses, e.g., interest rate and currency shocks and the default of the largest banking counterparty, complemented the analysis. For retirement funds, future pension values were modeled after a materialization of the adverse scenario in the first two years of the projection horizon. The sample comprised four life insurers, four short-term insurers and four retirement funds, with a market coverage between 80 and 95 percent in each sector. Incomplete reporting data complicated the top-down modelling, specifically with regard to the geographical breakdown of investments for insurers, and the valuation of insurance liabilities.
Kingdom of the Netherlands–The Netherlands
The Netherlands FSAP focused on three cross-cutting themes—housing, non-banks, and climate risks—while carrying out a comprehensive review of financial sector oversight. The FSAP reviewed the resilience of the Dutch financial system against a set of conjunctural and structural challenges to the economy: the conjunctural challenges included slowing economic growth amid tighter financial conditions, elevated housing prices, large and interconnected nonbanks with major pension reforms underway, and the shift in securities markets trading from London to Amsterdam since Brexit, which raised Amsterdam to systemic importance for the euro area (EA); and the structural challenges focused on climate issues, including climate physical risks associated with roughly a quarter of the country being below sea level, and nature-related transition risks from an uncertain policy path to bring down nitrogen depositions to contain biodiversity loss and comply with European Union (EU) Directives.
United States
This paper discusses the results of the Financial System Stability Assessment on the United States made under the Financial Sector Assessment Program. It is found that welcome steps have been taken in strengthening the financial system. The Financial Stability Oversight Council now provides a useful forum for coordination, the regulatory perimeter has expanded, information sharing among agencies has improved, supervisory stress testing is leading changes in risk measurement and management, and new resolution powers have been established. However, new pockets of vulnerabilities have emerged, partly in response to the continuing search for yield. This requires a continuing focus on strengthening the micro and macroprudential framework.
Japan
This Technical Note discusses the results of stress testing of the financial sector in Japan. The Japanese financial system appears generally resilient to short-term risks, but pockets of vulnerability exist. Overall, banks appear to have sufficient capital and liquidity buffers to cope with a scenario of severe recession owing to disruptions in global trade, and accompanied by a sharp increase in interest rates and risk premiums, and a decline in equity prices. Spillovers within the system also appear to be limited. At the same time, resilience is not equal among all institutions included in the analysis. Some life insurance companies and regional banks may need to strengthen their capital buffers.
Euro Area Policies
Overall the resilience of large euro area banks has improved, but important vulnerabilities remain. Capital buffers are in aggregate sizeable relative to immediate threats, but some banks are especially vulnerable to credit risk and others to market risks, including a substantial rise in risk premia. The banking system as a whole has ample liquidity, against a backdrop of ECB support. At a structural level, low profitability is found in many banks across all business models, despite improving conjunctural conditions. The interconnectedness analysis shows that strong buffers are effective in dampening both vulnerabilities and onward transmission. Risks to financial stability relate mainly to tighter financial conditions, weaker growth, and policy and geopolitical uncertainties. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU (Brexit) could potentially disrupt financial market and services, and thus the wider economy. Also, policy reversals could hurt debt sustainability and test the cohesion of policy making in the union.
Republic of Korea
This paper presents Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) with the Republic of Korea. The Korean authorities have continued their efforts at upgrading the prudential, legal, and supervisory framework for the financial sector, and keeping up with international standards and practices in other G20 jurisdictions. The authorities have been strengthening the system with micro and macroprudential measures against vulnerabilities, strengthening the crisis management framework, and upgrading the prudential and legal framework. The FSSA suggests moving toward a more forward-looking monitoring and systemic risk identification mechanism. The reliability of various stress tests could be augmented with advanced methods, system-wide monitoring, and testing the overall leverage related to residential properties, households’ resilience to adverse shocks, and sovereign contingent liabilities. Stronger focus is required on systemic risks emanating from securities market activities that can amplify contagion, including sudden redemption and liquidity pressures in the funds and asset management industry.
France
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper on France provides summary of an assessment of the financial system. Dominated by internationally active financial conglomerates, the French financial system has made important progress since the last financial stability assessment program (FSAP). In order to address a build-up of systemic risks, the authorities have proactively used macroprudential measures and public communication. The government is pursuing a strategy to prepare Paris as a key financial hub, including by promoting crypto-assets, fintech, green finance, and market entry. Banking and insurance business lines, and the corporate sector, carry important financial vulnerabilities...
