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Predicting Financial Crises: The Role of Asset Prices
We explore the early warning properties of a composite indicator which summarizes signals from a range of asset price growth and asset price volatility indicators to capture mispricing of risk in asset markets. Using a quarterly panel of 108 advanced and emerging economies over 1995-2017, we show that the combination of rapid asset price growth and low asset price volatility is a good predictor of future financial crises. Elevated levels of our indicator significantly increase the probability of entering a crisis within the next three years relative to normal times when the indicator is not elevated. The indicator outperforms credit-based early warning metrics, a result robust to prediction horizons, methodological choices, and income groups. Our results are consistent with the idea that measures based on asset prices can offer critical information about systemic risk levels to policymakers.
Curb Your Enthusiasm: The Fintech Hype Meets Reality in the Remittances Market
Fintech has become one of the most popular topics among policymakers and experts. It usually comes with the qualifier “disruptive”. Thus, the hype is easy to understand: fintech would upend the financial system due to its disruptive nature, as it would allow financial services to be completed faster, cheaper, and more efficiently. Indeed, many have predicted that the remittances market was on the verge of being disrupted as remittances are considered too costly while remittance service providers inefficient, opaque, and outdated. Therefore, there seems to be no better setting for assessing the allegedly disruptive effects of fintech. Against that background, this paper investigates how those predictions have fared so far. Contrary to expectations, it found that instead of disrupting incumbents fintechs have increasingly been entangled with them. Therefore, not only there is no evidence of disruption, but it is unlikely to occur in the foreseeable future. Even so, the paper argues that fintechs play an important role in the remittances market.
Sustainable Finance and Climate Change
Sustainable Finance and Climate Change explores the legal and regulatory framework that governs the transition to a carbon free economy, looking in particular at the regulation of the financial sector and corporate liability for climate change and biodiversity loss. In addition it looks at the effect on general corporate law, environmental law, central bank law, as well as litigation and arbitration.
Philippines
Philippines: Selected Issues
Regional Economic Outlook, Asia and Pacific, April 2024
Growth in Asia and the Pacific outperformed expectations in late 2023, reaching 5.0 percent for the year. Inflation has continued to decline, albeit at varying speeds: some economies are still seeing sustained price pressures, while others are facing deflationary risks. In 2024, growth is projected to slow modestly to 4.5 percent. Near-term risks are now broadly balanced, as global disinflation and the prospect of monetary easing have increased the likelihood of a soft landing. Spillovers from a deeper property sector correction in China remain an important risk, however, while geoeconomic fragmentation clouds medium-term prospects. Given the diverse inflation landscape, central bank policies need to calibrate policies carefully to domestic needs. Fiscal consolidation should accelerate to contain debt burdens and debt service cost, in order to preserve budgetary space for addressing structural challenges, including population aging and climate change.
Monetary Policy Transmission Heterogeneity: Cross-Country Evidence
This paper revisits the transmission of monetary policy by constructing a novel dataset of monetary policy shocks for an unbalanced sample of 33 advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1991Q2-2023Q2. Our findings reveal that tightening monetary policy swiftly and negatively impacts economic activity, but the effects on inflation and inflation expectations takes time to fully materialize. Notably, there exist significant heterogeneities in the transmission of monetary policy across countries and time, depending on structural characteristics and cyclical conditions. Across countries, monetary policy is more effective in countries with flexible exchange rate regime, more developed financial systems, and credible monetary policy frameworks. In addition, we find that monetary policy transmission is stronger when uncertainty is low, financial conditions are tight and monetary policy is coordinated with fiscal policy—that is, when the stances move in the same direction.
Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, November 2024
Short-term prospects for Asia and the Pacific have improved slightly compared to the IMF’s April forecasts, even though growth is still expected to moderate in 2024 and 2025. The regional growth projection for 2024 has been marked up to 4.6 percent from 4.5 percent in April, largely reflecting the over-performance in the first half of the year, and the region is forecast to contribute roughly 60 percent to global growth in 2024. In 2025, more accommodative monetary conditions are expected to support activity, resulting in a slight upward growth revision to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent in April. Inflation has retreated in much of the region. At the same time, risks have increased, reflecting rising geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the strength of global demand, and potential for financial volatility. Demographic change will act increasingly as a brake on activity, though structural shifts into high-productivity sectors such as tradable services hold promise to sustain robust growth.
Vernacular Literary Theory in the Middle Ages
The first edition of this book appeared in German in 1985, and set a new agenda for the study of medieval literary theory. Rather than seeing vernacular writers' reflections on their art, such as are found in prologues, epilogues and interpolations in literary texts, as merely deriving from established Latin traditions, Walter Haug shows that they marked the gradual emancipation of an independent vernacular poetics that went hand in hand with changing narrative forms. While focussing primarily on medieval German writers, Haug also takes into account French literature of the same period, and the principles underlying his argument are equally relevant to medieval literature in English or any other European language. This ground-breaking study is now available in English for the first time.
Rethinking Orality II
This is the second volume on the mechanisms of oral communication in ancient Greece, focused on epic poetry, a genre with deep roots in orality. Considering the critical debate about orality and its influence on the composition, diffusion and transmission of the archaic epic poems, the survey provides a reconsideration and a reassessment of the traces of orality in the archaic epic poetry, following their adaptation in the synchronic and diachronic changes of the communicative system. Combining the methods of cognitive science, and the historical and literary analysis of the texts, the research explores the complexity of the literary message of the Greek epic poetry, highlighting its position in a system of oral communication. The consideration of structural and formal aspects, i.e. the traces of orality in the narrative architecture, in the epic diction, in the meter and the formulaic system, as well as the vestiges of the mixture of orality and writing, allows to reconstruct a dynamic frame of communicative modalities which influenced and enriched the archaic epic poetry, providing it with expressive potentialities destined to a longlasting permanence in the history of the genre.
The Arthur of the Germans
From the twelfth century onwards the legends of King Arthur and his knights, including the Tristan legend, spread across Europe, producing a vast range of adaptations and new stories. German and Dutch literature were of central importance in this expansion of Arthurian material from the 12th to 16th century. This title deals with this topic.
