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European Macroeconomics
This macroeconomics text is written from a European perspective and adopts an open-economy approach. The authors cover the main macroeconomic theories and policy in relation to the components of the macroeconomic environment including the household and the monetary system.
Seigniorage in Europe
In this paper, based on the experience of ten European countries, we study the relevance of seigniorage revenues in the recent past, and we speculate about their importance in the near future. We find that the members of the European community differ widely in the way they manage monetary policies. While for some of the European countries we could not identify any consistent seigniorage policy, for others seigniorage appears to have been an important component of their financing policies. This lack of consensus about the role of monetary policies is a potential source of conflict in designing common exchange rate policies. A formal analysis of the current status of the finances of the governments of the ten European countries also revealed that several of them are now following budget policies that are potentially incompatible with their long run solvency. This also represents a major obstacle toward monetary unification on exchange rate stability. Member countries will be faced with quite different needs for revenues and eliminating a (politically) flexible instrument like siegniorage may result in an unstable situation.
The New Transatlantic Economy
Transatlantic economic relations are dominated by three factors which are of major historical significance. The first and most important is the multilateral process for trade liberalisation, deregulation of financial markets, and macroeconomic policy co-ordination. The second factor is a transatlantic environment of national and regional idiosyncrasies exemplified by protectionist initiatives, a significant weakening of the EMS, and changes in central bank statutes. The second factor is in part a political backlash against the first. The third factor affecting transatlantic economic relations is of course the emergence of regional economic relationships within the transatlantic economy, and a treaty calling for a common currency in Europe. In this 1996 volume, specialists in international trade, international finance, and political economy analyse the causes of these three factors, and their implications.
Managing Exchange Rate Crises
This paper investigates the effectiveness of the monetary authority's borrowing policies in resolving exchange rate crises. It shows why obtaining loans or lines of credit in foreign currency may avoid, at least temporarily, the devaluation of a fixed exchange rate, and discusses the problem of the optimal size of the loan and/or the line of credit. The analysis focuses on a particular episode of foreign exchange rate pressure, during the troubled years between 1894 to 1896. The results suggest that the borrowing policy followed by the U.S. Treasury in those years was effective in avoiding the collapse of the United States' gold standard, and that the amount of the borrowing undertaken by the Treasury might have been optimal.
The Benefits of Crises for Economic Reforms
This paper presents a model in which economic crises have positive effects on welfare. Periods of very high inflation create the incentive for the resolution of social conflict and thus facilitate the introduction of economic reforms and the achievement of higher levels of welfare. Policies to reduce the cost of inflation, such as indexation, raise inflation and delay the adoption of reforms, but have no effect on expected social welfare.
Bank Runs in Open Economies and the International Transmission of Panics
In this paper, we extend the bank run literature to an open economy model. We show that a foreign banking system, by raising deposit rates in the presence of a domestic banking panic, may generate sufficient liquid resources to acquire assets sold by the domestic banking system at bargain prices. In this case, foreign depositors will benefit from the domestic panic. We also show that our simple model is able to generate the spreading of panics. Perhaps not surprisingly, the crucial element in determining the propagation of financial crises is the effect of interest rates on savings decisions.
Financial Integration, Liquidity and Exchange Rates
This paper presents a two-country extension of Lucas' (1988) work on the effects of cash-in-advance constraints in asset markets on the pricing of financial assets. The model is one where there exists some degree of separation between the goods markets and the asset markets and money is used for transactions in both markets. The main results of the paper are the following. First, the equilibrium level of the exchange rate depends on the share of money used for asset transactions: a greater share will correspond to a more appreciated exchange rate. Second, under uncertainty, liquidity effects deriving from stochastic shocks to bond creation lead to an "excess" volatility of nominal and real exchange rates even when the "fundamental" value of the exchange rate is constant. Third, capital controls in the form of taxes on foreign asset acquisitions tend to appreciate the exchange rate. Fourth, the maturity structure of the public debt affects the equilibrium exchange rate. In particular, a move towards a longer maturity structure will tend to depreciate the exchange rate
Euroshock
The inside story of the unprecedented restructuring of Greece’s debt in 2012—the largest restructuring in history—and how the Eurozone was stabilized and Greece was saved from exit from the Euro and economic calamity. In the fall of 2009, the world economy was beginning to recover from the global financial crisis that had shaken global markets and had led to a sharp recession. At the same time, Europe was entering a new phase of economic stress. By the spring of 2011, the European economy had exploded into a full-blown crisis with Greece at the center. The euro, a currency just over a decade old, was under severe pressure and there was growing speculation about Greece leaving the Eurozone and thereby fracturing the common currency, leading potentially to an unraveling of the euro. Against this backdrop, urgent negotiations were launched to pull Greece and Europe back from the brink of disaster. This is the inside story of those negotiations.
Flexible Integration
Flexible Integration is a model of reform designed to overcome the current stalemate between federalists and anti-federalists. It introduces more flexibility to accommodate the heterogeneous interests in Europe without risking the gains achieved through past integration. Flexible integration combines firm commitment by all members to a supranational common baseincluding a well-defined set of competences related to the Single Market - with optional integration in other areas through open partnerships.
