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Predictive Policing
Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to identify targets for police intervention with the goal of preventing crime, solving past crimes, or identifying potential offenders and victims. These tools are not a substitute for integrated approaches to policing, nor are they a crystal ball. This guide assesses some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches for acting on predictions in an effective way.
Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies
"Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that U.S. forces need more-effective techniques and procedures to conduct counterinsurgency. It is likely that U.S. forces will face similar, irregular warfare tactics from future enemies that are unwilling to engage in conventional combat with U.S. forces. This monograph examines the nature of the contemporary insurgent threat and provides insights on using operational analysis techniques to support intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies. The authors examine the stages of an insurgency and discuss the kinds of intelligence that are needed at each stage. A number of techniques -- pattern discernment and predictive analysis, for example -- appear to show promise of being useful to intelligence analysis. The authors also explore two closely connected methods in depth to examine the interactions between friendly and enemy forces: game theory and change detection." -- p. [4] of cover.
Predicting Suicide Attacks
As part of an exploration of ways to predict what determines the targets of suicide attacks, RAND conducted a proof-of-principle analysis of whether adding sociocultural, political, economic, and demographic factors would enhance the predictive ability of a methodology that focused on geospatial features. This test case focused on terrorist bombing incidents in Israel, but the findings indicate that the methodology merits further exploration.
Uncertainty-sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion
Presents research on methods for heterogeneous information fusion--combining data that are qualitative, subjective, fuzzy, ambiguous, contradictory, and even deceptive, in order to form a realistic assessment of threat in a counterterrorism context.
Withdrawing from Iraq
In studying the withdrawal from Iraq, RAND assessed logistical constraints, trends in insurgent activity, the readiness of Iraqi security forces, and implications for the size of the residual U.S. force and for security in Iraq and the region. This report presents alternative schedules: one consistent with the Obama administration's intentions, one somewhat slower, and another faster. It also identifies steps to alleviate constraints and risks.
Walt Perry
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Exploring Information Superiority
Assessing how technology contributes to information superiority and decision dominance a major challenge, in part because it demands quantitative measures for what are usually considered qualitative concepts. The authors have developed a mathematical framework to aid these efforts. Additional work, such as data fitting, experimentation, linking decisions and actions, historical analysis, and gaming will further advance knowledge in this area.
Allocating Marine Expeditionary Unit Equipment to Minimize Shortfalls
In many cases, the available space on a Marine Expeditionary Unit's ships falls far short of what is needed to transport the full set of required equipment. A RAND-developed software tool was designed to help limit the effects of these shortfalls.
Une guerre difficile
L’ouvrage intitulne guerre difficile : Points de vue sur l’insurrection et les FOS aborde les concepts thiques liaux insurrections et a pratique de la guerre irrli. Le prnt volume s’intsse dans une large mesure aux forces d’options spales, car elles constituent un ment intal des mesures de contre insurrection. Ce recueil aidera les membres de la profession des armes omprendre ce qu’est l’insurrection, ou plus prsnt peut-e, la contre-insurrection et ses ments connexes caractstiques. De plus, Une guerre difficile jette un airage particulier sur ce type de guerre complexe qui peut revr diverses formes. C’est un ouvrage utile et accessible qui saura intsser tant le lecteur profane ...
Network-based Operations for the Swedish Defence Forces
The Swedish government is undertaking efforts to reorient Swedish Defence Forces from homeland defence to a wider suite of missions, including operations far from Sweden-a significant change in the way Sweden is willing to employ its armed forces. Such missions include expeditionary operations with coalition partners. Therefore, a decision was made to move towards network-based operations linking sensors, decisionmakers, and combat systems to achieve shared awareness, increased speed of command, higher operational tempo, greater lethality, and increased survivability. The methodology proposed in this report suggests several operational functions, such as air and missile defense or joint forc...
