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Dynamic Tensions
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Out Front on Federal Debt Reduction
This commentary examines some budget priorities that might usefully preoccupy the federal government during the next generation, beginning with a look at the arithmetic of federal debt reduction. The commentary focuses on the lower interest payments that a smaller debt would produce and on the additional bonus that arises as fiscal policy adjusts to a budget balance that is consistent with a sustained ratio of debt to gross domestic product. It then assesses some criteria that bear on the debt level that Canada might aim for and when it might be achieved. Various paths for achieving such a target are studied: back-loaded, constant-surplus, and front-loaded, the latter in which the largest budget surpluses appear early on. A simple model of the Canadian economy is used to compare the performance of these strategies in the presence of economic cycles and various feedbacks between the budget and the economy. Finally, the commentary asks how a program that dividends out each year's anticipated interest payment decline in tax cuts compares with one in which tax rates remain constant.
Equality and Prosperity
This compilation of papers explores the question of how Canada's average level of prosperity might be raised and how these gains might be widely distributed in the future. The first paper surveys trends in income distribution and the controversies involved in defining poverty lines, and discusses explanations for the rising disparities in market incomes. Particular attention is paid to questions of market failure that are central to each diagnosis of the rising inequality phenomenon. The second paper summarizes studies that estimate how many of the benefits of each government program go to individuals and families at each point on the income scale, and combines the calculations to estimate how much overall income redistribution Canadian governments do. The final paper investigates a version of new growth theory and presents a model whose key aspect is government spending on education as a means of raising both income equality and overall economic growth.
No Small Change
This commentary first describes the current monetary order in Canada (a central bank, floating exchange rate, domestic inflation target, & institutional accountability). It then examines various options proposed by critics of this order, such as a pegged US/Canadian dollar exchange rate, a currency union, and unilateral adoption of the US dollar. The advantages & drawbacks of each are compared to the current order. Areas where US co-operation affects the attractiveness of an option are identified and the likelihood of such co-operation is evaluated.
Trading Punches
The book provides background on the legal framework of the so-called unfair trade laws in each of the three countries as well as on the dispute-settlement mechanisms available under NAFTA and the World Trade Organization. It provides some empirical analysis of the effects of these laws and puts forward ideas for reform.
