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Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR
This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. We find that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over time to demand shocks than to supply shocks, and more aggressive toward inflation than output growth. Our estimated dynamic policy coefficients characterize the style of policy as a "bang-bang" control for the pre-1979 period and as a gradual control for the post-1979 period.
IBSS: Economics: 2002 Vol.51
First published in 1952, the International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (anthropology, economics, political science, and sociology) is well established as a major bibliographic reference for students, researchers and librarians in the social sciences worldwide. Key features * Authority: Rigorous standards are applied to make the IBSS the most authoritative selective bibliography ever produced. Articles and books are selected on merit by some of the world's most expert librarians and academics. *Breadth: today the IBSS covers over 2000 journals - more than any other comparable resource. The latest monograph publications are also included. *International Coverage: the IBSS reviews schol...
Global Liquidity Transmission to Emerging Market Economies, and Their Policy Responses
This paper distills and identifies global liquidity (GL) momenta from the macro-financial data of advanced economies through a factor model with sign restrictions as policy-driven, market-driven, and risk averseness factors. Using a panel factor-augmented VAR, we investigate responses of emerging market economies (EMEs) to GL shocks. A policy-driven liquidity increase boosts growth in EMEs, elevating stock prices and currency values, while a risk averseness rise has an opposite effect. A market-driven GL expansion boosts stock markets and lowers funding costs, promoting competitiveness and current account. Inflation targeting EMEs fare better than EMEs under alternative regimes with respect to macrofinancial volatility.
Fire Sales and the Financial Accelerator
During periods of financial turmoil, increases in risk lead to higher default, foreclosure, and fire sales. This paper introduces a costly liquidation process for foreclosed collateral and endogenous recovery rates in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the financial accelerator. Consistent with empirical evidence, we find that recovery rates are pro-cyclical when collateral is costly to liquidate. Through links between recovery rates, risk premia, and default risk, the model generates an additional liquidity spiral, a feedback loop for the financial accelerator. We illustrate how collateral liquidation and monetary policy alter the impacts of a financial shock. We also show that a government subsidy on collateral liquidity and the endogenous accumulation of liquidity inventory help dampen the liquidity spiral by shoring up recovery rates.
Policy Conflicts and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credit Markets
This paper shows that stabilizing volatility in credit growth often conflicts with price stability: unusual credit expansions often occur when inflation is low relative to goals, and credit slumps often appear when inflation is overshooting. We find that central banks with inflation targeting (IT) are responsive to credit conditions in both advanced economies and emerging-market economies (EMEs). However, EMEs are more sensitive to inflation conditions, responding to credit growth only when consistent with IT. Macroprudential measures are also deployed to address credit growth volatility when orthodox policy moves would be inconsistent with IT, complementing monetary policy.
Does Financial Tranquility Call for Stringent Regulation?
Consistent with the Minsky hypothesis and the “volatility paradox” (Brunnermeier and Sannikov, 2014), recent empirical evidence suggests that financial crises tend to follow prolonged periods of financial stability and investor optimism. But does financial tranquility always call for more stringent regulation over time? We examine this question using a simple portfolio choice model that features the interaction between learning and externality. We evaluate the potential of a macroprudential policy to restore efficiency, and characterize the necessary and sufficient condition for the countercyclicality of the optimal regulation/macroprudential policy. Our paper implies that policymakers should not only consider the cyclical indicators “on the surface” (for example, credit growth), but also closely examine the deep structural change of the resilience of the system. The paper also highlights the importance of assigning the macroprudential policy function to independent agencies with technical expertise.
Macroprudential Policy and Bank Systemic Risk: Does Inflation Targeting Matter?
This paper investigates macroprudential policy effects on bank systemic risk and the role of inflation targeting in such effects. Using bank-level data for 45 countries comprising various monetary and exchange rate regimes, our regime-dependent dynamic panel regression results point to complementarities between monetary and macroprudential policies. We find that the tightening of most macroprudential tools—including DSTI and LTV limits, and capital requirements—reduces bank systemic risk further under inflation targeting. Our findings lend credence to the view that inflation targeting strengthens macroprudential policy roles in mitigating financial stability risks.
Trade Credit and the Effect of Macro-Financial Shocks
Many studies examine why firms are financed by their suppliers, but few empirical studies look at the macroeconomic implications of such financial arrangements. Using disaggregated panel data, we examine how firms extend and use trade credit. We find that, controlling for the transactions or asset management motive, both accounts payable and receivable increase with tighter policy, implying that trade credit helps firms absorb the effect of a credit contraction. A comparison of S&P 500 firms with smaller firms, however, provides no evidence that when policy is tightened, large firms play the role of credit suppliers more actively than small firms.
Ibss: Economics: 1999
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IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 3
Studies of the impact of trade openness on growth are based either on crosscountry analysis—which lacks transparency—or case studies—which lack statistical rigor. This paper applies a transparent econometric method drawn from the treatment evaluation literature (matching estimators) to make the comparison between treated (that is, open) and control (that is, closed) countries explicit while remaining within a statistical framework. Matching estimators highlight that common cross-country evidence is based on rather far-fetched country comparisons, which stem from the lack of common support of treated and control countries in the covariate space. The paper therefore advocates paying more attention to appropriate sample restriction in crosscountry macro research.
