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El Salvador
This paper focuses on policies to raise growth; underpin fiscal sustainability while enhancing social safety nets; and strengthen financial sector stability, deepening, and inclusiveness. GDP growth averaged 2 percent during 2000–14, well below the Central American regional average of 41⁄2 percent. While the underlying causes of the low growth are complex, a key channel through which they are evident appears to be low investment. Given the need to increase growth, revenue-raising measures should be accompanied by cuts in distortionary taxation. Stress tests suggest that financial buffers are adequate to contain most risks. The financial deepening and advancing financial inclusion could have a meaningful impact on both growth and poverty.
Guatemala
This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output growth and the output gap for Guatemala. Potential output growth averaged 4.4 percent just before the global financial crisis but has since declined to 3.75 percent owing to lower capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. It is estimated at 3.8 percent in 2016, and the output gap has virtually closed. Potential growth is expected to reach 4 percent in the medium term owing to the expected improvements in TFP growth. Policies should also prioritize mobilizing domestic savings to invest and build a higher capital stock.
Costa Rica
This paper looks at the following important issues pertaining to the economy of Costa Rica: micro-financial linkages, financial sector vulnerabilities, monetary policy stance, financial deepening in Costa Rica, financial inclusion in Costa Rica, recent fiscal developments and medium-term sustainability, and female labor force participation in Costa Rica. This paper discusses linkages between the Costa Rican real economy and financial sector. Although increasingly diversified, the Costa Rican financial system is centered on banking intermediation. The banking system is highly segmented and heavily dollarized. To assess the adequacy of the current monetary policy stance, this paper estimates the neutral monetary policy interest rate.
Financial Inclusion
Using several recently available global datasets, this Staff Discussion Note examines macroeconomic effects of financial inclusion. It finds significant benefits to economic growth from financial inclusion, but the benefits diminish as financial inclusion and depth become large. Broadening access to credit can compromise economic and bank stability in countries with weak bank supervision. Other forms of financial inclusion—such as access to and use of bank accounts, branches, and ATMs—do not hurt stability, and can be promoted extensively. The note finds that gaps in financial inclusion are associated with economic inequality, but the association appears relatively weak.
IMF Research Bulletin, December 2015
The December issue of the Research Bulletin looks at “Seven Questions about Climate Change” (Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto). The Research Summaries review “Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth” (Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Frederik Toscani) and “Malaysia: Achieving High-Income Status through Resilience and Inclusive Growth” (Alex Mourmouras and Naimh Sheridan). The issue also includes regular updates on new IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, IMF books, and the IMF Economic Review.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Western Hemisphere Department
With the global economy gaining some momentum, economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are recovering from a recession at the regional level in 2016. This gradual improvement can be understood as tale of two adjustments, external and fiscal, that are ongoing in response to earlier shocks. But headwinds from commodity terms-of-trade shocks and country-specific domestic factors are fading, paving the way for real GDP to grow by about 1 percent in 2017. Regional activity is expected to pick up further momentum in 2018, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated, while medium-term growth is projected to remain modest at about 2.6 percent. The outlook is shaped by key shifts in the glo...
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015: Western Hemisphere Department
Economies in the Western Hemisphere are generally seeing a slowdown in growth. The U.S. economy regained momentum after a slow start at the beginning of the year, while in Latin America and the Caribbean economic activity continues to decelerate. Stronger U.S. growth should benefit countries in the region, especially those with tighter links through trade, remittances, and tourism (Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean). Weaker commodity prices for the foreseeable future, however, will continue to hurt South America's net commodity exporters, lowering national incomes, reducing investment, and worsening fiscal balances. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent y...
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Western Hemisphere Department
The United States has seen an improvement in economic activity, driven by consumption, and has taken a first step toward gradual normalization of interest rates. The U.S. recovery continues to support activity in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, but China’s slowdown has reduced the demand for exports from South America. At the same time, the region’s commodity exporters have experienced further terms-of-trade shocks as commodity prices continue their decline globally. This report describes the policies and economic reforms needed to address the declining productive capacity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Three chapters assess corporate vulnerabilities in Latin America, analyze the degree of exchange rate pass-through in the region, and evaluate trends in public and private infrastructure investment.
Financial Inclusion for Poverty Alleviation
More than one billion people still live below the poverty line – most of them in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Financial inclusion is a major issue, as more than three-quarters of the numbers of poor and disadvantaged women and men do not have access to financial products and services, such as bank accounts, affordable and suitable loans, and insurance. The key objective of this book is to provide practical case studies of financial inclusion, rather than focus on academic debates such as the ideological basis of promoting microfinance. Using the recently adopted Sustainable Development Goals as an overall framing of the issues, it shows how poor and disadvantaged women and men can be...
Uruguay
This paper examines the dimensions in which Uruguay’s financial development is lagging, and the benefits that might accrue if obstacles to development in these areas were removed. The analysis focuses on the frictions affecting firms’ access to credit, corporate credit deepening, and the efficiency of financial intermediation in Uruguay, and quantifies the potential economic benefits of relaxing these constraints, with implications for firms and households alike. The paper also lays out the basic premises of the model, together with some facts to illustrate different elements of it. The paper presents the results of the calibration and comparative statics exercise. The last section concludes with a discussion of measures that have been taken by the Uruguayan authorities recently, which may alleviate some of the constraints emphasized in the model. The challenge is to implement these measures in a way that maximizes their effectiveness. This may require communication campaigns targeting the youth, elderly and low-income segments of the population, to ensure the widest reach, particularly outside Montevideo.
