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Housing Market Stability and Affordability in Asia-Pacific
The paper intends to highlight challenges in Asian housing markets linked to fast price rises especially in the advanced economies since COVID, and more broadly including many EMs in the period leading up to COVID. It aims to draw policy lessons on how to manage stability aspects through macroprudential and other policies and how to support affordability through structural policies and targeted government support.
What Matters for Job Finding and Separation in the Long Run? Evidence from Labor Market Dynamics in New Zealand
We use the novel anonymized Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) microdata to analyze job finding rates and job separation rates in New Zealand. We find that individual characteristics, including age, gender, ethnicity and education have a significant impact on job finding and separation rates, even after controlling for other factors. We use a decomposition approach to analyze how the effects of individual characteristics on job finding and separation rates contribute to heterogeneity in employment outcomes. Overall, we find that higher separation rates of young workers play a disproportionate role in explaining heterogeneity of employment outcomes across age groups, while differences in finding rates are somewhat more important in explaining differences by education level. Both finding and separation rate differences are important in explaining differences across ethnicities. We also find some heterogeneous response of worker groups to business cycle after controlling for other factors. The results underscore the importance of well-targeted labor market support policies.
Australia
This Selected Issues paper investigates the drivers of business investment in Australia, focusing on the non-mining sectors. The paper also identifies aggregate-level drivers for non-mining business investment by looking at long-term trends. It delves into firm-level investment behavior and assesses the role of credit availability and uncertainty in different types of firms. Long-term empirical and simulation-based analyses suggest that global factors such as rising policy uncertainty and weaker commodity prices have been key drivers of the slowdown, while in the short term, a renewed escalation in US–China trade tensions could spill over to investment and growth in Australia. Yet, domestic factors are also at play, including domestic policy uncertainty and financial constraints, especially for smaller and younger firms. The pace of product market reforms can also impact business investment. Australia can promote business investment by reducing domestic policy uncertainty, easing credit constraints for small- and medium-sized enterprises, incentivizing research and development, and continuing with product market and tax reforms.
Republic of Mozambique
Economic growth is tepid, with tight financial conditions continuing to act as a drag on activity. Inflation pressures have declined sharply reflecting lower international fuel and food prices and subdued domestic demand. About 60 percent of the population is below the poverty line. A fiscal correction is ongoing, albeit at a slower pace than planned, following the fiscal slippages from the single salary scale reform adopted in 2022. The security situation in the north remains fragile and general elections are scheduled for October 9, 2024.
Achieving the Bank of Japan’s Inflation Target
The Bank of Japan has introduced various unconventional monetary policy tools since the launch of Abenomics in 2013, to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent inflation. In this paper, a forward-looking open-economy general equilibrium model with endogenously determined policy credibility and an effective lower bound is developed for forecasting and policy analysis (FPAS) for Japan. In the model’s baseline scenario, the likelihood of the Bank of Japan reaching its 2 percent inflation target over the medium term is below 40 percent, assuming the absence of other policy reactions aside from monetary policy. The likelihood of achieving the inflation target is even lower under alternative risk scenarios. A positive shock to central bank credibility increases this likelihood, and would require less accommodative macroeconomic policies.
New Zealand: Selected Issues
New Zealand: Selected Issues
