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A Tale of Tier 3 Cities
This paper provides new estimates of the housing stock, construction rates and price developments by city tier in China in order to understand where imbalances might be concentrated, and the implications of any significant contraction. We also update estimates of the size of China’s rapidly evolving real estate sector through 2021, allowing one to look at the initial impact of COVID-19, as well as extending the analysis to incorporate urban-expansion related infrastructure construction. We argue that China overall faces imbalances between supply and demand for housing stock, but the problem is significantly deeper outside tier 1 cities.
The Rise and Impact of Fintech in Latin America
In the past decade, fintech has shaken up the financial sector in Latin America providing innovations in lending, payments, insurance, and regulation and compliance. This paper examines this development by focusing on both fintech services and regulation. Exploring fintech’s macro-critical impact using country- and bank-level data, we find that booming financial technologies in Latin America have helped boost competition in the banking sector and inclusion. Additionally, we demonstrate that fintech firms in Latin America experienced robust growth even during the pandemic supported by external funding. Finally, we discuss how regulators are addressing the risks associated with financial technologies and how they are leveraging fintech tools in their supervisory activities.
Are Passive Institutional Investors Engaged Monitors Or Risk-Averse Owners? Both!
We differentiate the effects of passive institutional investors, which mainly refer to index funds that adopt a passive portfolio strategy, on firms’ innovation activities and innovation strategies. Relying on plausibly exogenous variation in passive institutional ownership generated by Russell 1000/2000 index reconstitutions, we find that, with larger passive institutional ownership, while firms’ countable innovation activities increase, they shift their innovation strategies by focusing more on exploitation of existing knowledge instead of exploring new technology. Enhanced monitoring by passive institutional investors through active votes could explain their positive effects on firms’ innovation activities. Increasing risk aversion on the part of passive institutional investors appears the underlying force that drives firms’ shift to incremental innovation. Our paper uncovers a subtle relation between institutional investors and innovation, which is largely ignored by earlier studies.
License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports
This paper dives into the Fund’s historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We find that overall, while the discussion of spillovers decreased over time, it was pronounced in the staff reports of some systemically important economies and during periods of global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources of global spillovers. The coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors. Also, countries with larger economies, higher trade and capital account openess and lower inflation are more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports.
Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Does greater product market competition improve external competitiveness and growth? This paper examines this question by using country-and firm-level data for a sample of 39 sub-Saharan African countries over 2000–17, as well as other emerging market economies and developing countries, and finds that an improvement in domestic competition is associated with a signficant increase in real GDP per capita growth rate, achieved mainly through an improvement in export competitiveness and productivity growth. Price levels, including of essential items, are also generally lowered with an increase in competition. Moreover, at the firm-level, evidence shows that greater competition—proxied through a decline in corporate market power—is associated with an increase in firm’s investment and the labor’s share in output. These effects are more pronounced in the manufacturing sector and among domestic firms compared to foreign firms.
A Tale of Tier 3 Cities
This paper provides new estimates of the housing stock, construction rates and price developments by city tier in China in order to understand where excess supply might be concentrated, and the implications of any significant contraction. We also update estimates of the size of China’s rapidly evolving real estate sector through 2021, allowing one to look at the initial impact of COVID-19, as well as extending the analysis to incorporate urban-expansion related infrastructure construction. We argue that China overall faces imbalances between supply and demand for housing stock, but the problem is significantly deeper in the generally smaller and lower income tier 3 cities, which nevertheless account for more than 60% of both China’s GDP and its housing stock.
Decomposing Climate Risks in Stock Markets
Climate change poses an unprecedented challenge to the world economy and the global financial system. This paper sets out to understand and quantify the impact of climate mitigation, with a focus on climate-related news, which represents an important information source that investors use to revise their subjective assessments of climate risks. Using full-text data from Financial Times from January 2005 to March 2022, we develop machine learning-based indicators to measure risks from climate mitigation, and the direction of the risk is identified through manual labels. The documented risk premium indicates that climate mitigation news has been partially priced in the Canadian stock market. More specifically, stock prices react positively to market-wide climate-favorable news but they do not react negatively to climate-unfavorable news. The results are robust to different model specifications and across equity markets.
Fintech, Female Employment, and Gender Inequality
Fintech, which delivers financial services digitally, promises to promote financial inclusion and close the gender gap. Using a novel fintech dataset for 114 economies worldwide, this paper shows that fintech adoption significantly improves female employment and reduces gender inequality, the effect being more pronounced in firms without traditional financial access. Fintech not only increases the number and ratio of female employees in the workforce, but also mitigates financial constraints of female-headed firms. Digital divide and poor institutions weaken such benefits. Endogeneity is accounted for by a fixed effects identification strategy. We conclude by providing policy recommendations and outlining avenues for future research.
Digitalization and Employment Gender Gaps During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean
Despite its negative effects, the COVID-19 pandemic has also accelerated Latin America's digitalization. The rapid increase in connectivity and digital services was helpful in mitigating the pandemic's negative impact on the labor markets, especially for those with enough flexibility to continue working from home. The shock has particularly affected women due to their household responsibilities and labor market characteristics. This paper examines how digitalization may have affected gender gaps in employment and job loss related to the COVID-19 crisis. Using a sample of Latin American countries, our findings suggest that higher levels of digitalization are associated with increased female employment and reduced job loss for both men and women. These findings hold even after controlling for factors such as child care, household chores, and the COVID-19 shock. Our results are also robust to various econometric techniques.
A Tale of Tier 3 Cities
This paper provides new estimates of the housing stock, construction rates and price developments by city tier in China in order to understand where excess supply might be concentrated, and the implications of any significant contraction. We also update estimates of the size of China's rapidly evolving real estate sector through 2021, allowing one to look at the initial impact of COVID-19, as well as extending the analysis to incorporate urban-expansion related infrastructure construction. We argue that China overall faces imbalances between supply and demand for housing stock, but the problem is significantly deeper in the generally smaller and lower income tier 3 cities, which nevertheless account for more than 60% of both China's GDP and its housing stock.
