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Changing consumption patterns: Implications on food and water demand in India
Increasing income and urbanization are triggering a rapid change in food consumption patterns in India. This report assesses India’s changing food consumption patterns and their implications on future food and water demand. According to the projections made in this study, the total calorie supply would continue to increase, but the dominance of food grains in the consumption basket is likely to decrease by 2050, and the consumption of non-grain crops and animal products would increase to provide a major part of the daily calorie supply. Although the total food grain demand will decrease, the total grain demand is likely to increase with the increasing feed demand for the livestock. The implications of the changing consumption patterns are assessed through consumptive water use (CWU) under the assumptions of full or partial food self-sufficiency.
India's water future to 2025-2050: business-as-usual scenario and deviations
With a rapidly expanding economy many changes are taking place in India today. The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumes the continuation of current trends of key water demand drivers, will meet the future food demand. However, it leads to a severe regional water crisis by 2050, where many river basins will reach closure, will be physically water-scarce and will have regions with severely overexploited groundwater resources. While the alternative scenarios of water demand show both optimistic and pessimistic water futures, the scenario with additional productivity growth is the most optimistic, with significant scope for reducing future water demand.
Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia
The report evaluates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime and water resources of the Blue Nile River Basin in Ethiopia. It starts from the construction of the climate change scenarios based on the outcomes of several general circulation models (GCMs), uses a simple hydrological model to convert theses scenarios into runoff, and examines the impacts by means of a set of indices. The results, however uncertain with existing accuracy of climate models, suggest that the region is likely to have the future potential to produce hydropower, increase flow duration, and increase water storage capacity without affecting outflows to the riparian countries in the 2050s.
Adaptive water resource management in the South Indian Lower Bhavani Project Command Area
This report explores the theory and practice of Adaptive Water Management (AWM) based on a detailed field study in the Lower Bhavani Project (LBP) in the South Indian state of Tamil Nadu. A five-step framework is used to analyze the extent to which AWM is practiced and how it could be improved. The analysis shows that the LBP system has increasingly fulfilled the criteria of a complex adaptive system over the years. The main uncertainty factor, rainfall variability, has been considered in a stepwise way during the system change cycles and has been included in the LBP system design. The study shows that in spite of contending with an imperfect irrigation system design and intense competition for water resources, water resource managers and farmers are able to adapt and continue to reap benefits from a productive agricultural system.
Drivers and characteristics of wastewater agriculture in developing countries: results from a global assessment
In 4 out of 5 cities in developing countries, wastewater is used to cultivate perishable crops for urban markets. Such practices create a health risk but provide important livelihood benefits. This study through an analysis of 53 cities in developing countries, contributes to understanding the factors that drive wastewater use. The main drivers are (1) increasing urban water demand without wastewater treatment causing pollution of irrigation water sources; (2) urban food demand favoring agriculture close to cities where water sources are polluted; and (3) lack of cheaper, similarly reliable or safer water sources. Poverty, which constrains the infrastructure needs of urbanization, is an added factor. The study makes policy recommendations stressing on, effectively applying the WHO guidelines, linking investments in water supply with sanitation for maximum beneficial impact on water pollution, and involving actors at both the national and local level, for water quality improvements and health risk reduction
Institutions, impact synergies and food security: a methodology with results from the Kala Oya Basin, Sri Lanka
The success of development programs depends on the role of underlying institutions and the impact synergies from closely related programs. Existing literature has limitations in accounting for these critical factors. This paper fills this gap by developing a methodology, which can quantify both the institutional roles in impact generation and the impact synergies from related programs. The methodology is applied to the Kala Oya Basin in Sri Lanka for evaluating the impacts of three development programs and 11 institutions on food security. The results provide valuable insights on the relative roles of institutions and the varying flow of impact synergies both within and across impact pathways.
Importance of irrigated agriculture to the Ethiopian economy: capturing the direct net benefits of irrigation
Irrigation development has been identified as a means to stimulate economic growth and rural development in Ethiopia. However, little attempt has been made to quantify the contribution of irrigation to national income. Using data from selected irrigation schemes, representing small, medium and large-scale schemes of modern or traditional typologies; the present coverage and planned growth of irrigation, actual and expected contributions of irrigation to the national economy were quantified following the approach of adjusted gross margin analysis. Our results show that irrigation yields 219.7% higher income compared to the rainfed system while its current and future contribution to agricultural GDP is estimated to be about 5.7 and 12% although irrigation covers about 5 and 9% of the total cultivated land area, respectively.
The lower Krishna Basin trajectory: relationships between basin development and downstream environmental degradation.
Basin water development and rural dynamics in the Krishna Basin have led to a degradation of downstream ecosystems manifesting itself by salinizing soil and groundwater, increasing pollution, disappearing mangroves and desiccating wetlands. Reversing this evolution requires the formal recognition of the environment as a water user in its own right and the implementation of an environmental water provision. This provision should be based on a two-tier allocation system with assured discharges in the irrigation canals of the delta and to the ocean. This will lead to further commitment of water resources but this is needed to reconcile the social, economic and environmental objectives of a sustainable development. Other measures facilitating integrated natural resources management from the local to the basin level are needed too.
Strategic Analyses of the National River Linking Project (NRLP) of India
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