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Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy
In this paper we first compare house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price data set covering the period 1990-2012. We find that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across countries than in advanced economies. We also find that they correlate with capital flows more closely than in advanced economies. We then condition the analysis on an exogenous change to a particular component of capital flows. We find that a global liquidity shock, identified by aggregating bank-to-bank cross border flows and by using the external instrumental variable approach of Stock and Watson (2012) and Mertens and Ravn (2013), has a much stronger impact on house prices and consumption in emerging markets than in advanced economies. In our empirical model, holding house prices or the exchange rate constant in response to this shock tends to dampen its effects on consumption in emerging economies.
Uncertainty, Financial Frictions and Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation
Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs' idiosyncratic productivity (micro uncertainty) in a financial accelerator DSGE model with sticky prices. It explores the different mechanisms through which uncertainty shocks are propagated and amplified. The time series properties of macro and micro uncertainty are estimated using U.S. aggregate and firm-level data, respectively. While surprise increases in micro uncertainty have a larger impact on output than macro uncertainty, these account for a small (non-trivial) share of output volatility.
Does Easing Monetary Policy Increase Financial Instability?
This paper develops a model featuring both a macroeconomic and a financial friction that speaks to the interaction between monetary and macro-prudential policies. There are two main results. First, real interest rate rigidities in a monopolistic banking system have an asymmetric impact on financial stability: they increase the probability of a financial crisis (relative to the case of flexible interest rate) in response to contractionary shocks to the economy, while they act as automatic macro-prudential stabilizers in response to expansionary shocks. Second, when the interest rate is the only available policy instrument, a monetary authority subject to the same constraints as private agents cannot always achieve a (constrained) efficient allocation and faces a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability in response to contractionary shocks. An implication of our analysis is that the weak link in the U.S. policy framework in the run up to the Global Recession was not excessively lax monetary policy after 2002, but rather the absence of an effective regulatory framework aimed at preserving financial stability.
Crossing the Credit Channel
We show that credit spreads rise after a monetary policy tightening, yet spread reactions are heterogeneous across firms. Exploiting information from a unique panel of corporate bonds matched with balance sheet data for US non-financial firms, we document that firms with high leverage experience a more pronounced increase in credit spreads than firms with low leverage. A large fraction of this increase is due to a component of credit spreads that is in excess of firms' expected default -- the excess bond premium. Consistent with the spreads response, we also document that high-leverage firms experience a sharper contraction in debt and investment than low-leverage firms. Our results provide evidence that balance sheet effects are crucial for understanding the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.
Does Easing Monetary Policy Increase Financial Instability?
This paper develops a model featuring both a macroeconomic and a financial friction that speaks to the interaction between monetary and macro-prudential policies. There are two main results. First, real interest rate rigidities in a monopolistic banking system have an asymmetric impact on financial stability: they increase the probability of a financial crisis (relative to the case of flexible interest rate) in response to contractionary shocks to the economy, while they act as automatic macro-prudential stabilizers in response to expansionary shocks. Second, when the interest rate is the only.
Economía: Spring 2012
Tentative contents include - Price Setting in Retailing: The Case of Uruguay Fernando Borraz (Banco Central de Uruguay) and Leandro Zipitria (Universidad de Montevideo) - Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System, 1997-2007 Stephen Haber (Stanford University) and Aldo Musacchio (Harvard Business School) - On the Transmission of Global Shocks to Latin America before and after China's Emergency in the World Economy Alessandro Rebucci (IADB) - Adapting Natural Resource Intensive Enterprises under Global Warming in Latin America S. Niggol Seo (University of Sydney)
The GVAR Handbook
The GVAR is a Global Vector Auto-Regression model of the global economy. Its main feature is to take into account the financial and real linkages connecting the major world economies. This book provides an overview of the GVAR and its applications: forecasting, finance issues, and regional studies.
The Anatomy of Banks’ IT Investments: Drivers and Implications
This paper relies on administrative data to study determinants and implications of US banks’ Information Technology (IT) investments, which have increased six-fold over two decades. Large and small banks had similar IT expenses a decade ago. Since then, large banks sharply increased their spending, especially those which were more exposed to competition from fintech lenders. Other local-level and bank-level factors, such as county income and bank income sources, also contribute to explain the heterogeneity in IT investments. Analysis of the mortgage market reveals that fintechs’ lending behavior is more similar to that of non-bank financial intermediaries rather than IT-savvy banks, suggesting that factors other than technology are responsible for the differences between banks and other lenders. However, both IT-savvy banks and fintech lend to lower income borrowers, pointing towards benefits for financial inclusion from higher IT adoption. Banks’ IT investments are also shown to matter for the responsiveness of bank lending to monetary policy.
Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods
In a SVAR model of the US, the response of the relative price of durables to a monetary contraction is either flat or mildly positive. It significantly falls only if narrowly defined as the ratio between new-house and nondurables prices. These findings are rationalized via the estimation of a two-sector New-Keynesian (NK) models. Durables prices are estimated to be as sticky as nondurables, leading to a flat relative price response to a monetary shock. Conversely, house prices are estimated to be almost flexible. Such results survive several robustness checks and a three-sector extension of the NK model. These findings have implications for building two-sector NK models with durable and nondurable goods, and for the conduct of monetary policy.
Dragonomics
An insightful examination of the political and economic ties between China and Latin America from the 1950s to the present This book explores the impact of Chinese growth on Latin America since the early 2000s. Roughly twenty years ago, Chinese entrepreneurs headed to the Western Hemisphere in search of profits and commodities, specifically those that China lacked and that some Latin American countries held in abundance—copper, iron ore, crude oil, soybeans, and fish meal. Focusing largely on Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Peru, Carol Wise traces the evolution of political and economic ties between China and these countries and analyzes how success has varied by sector, project, and country. She also assesses the costs and benefits of Latin America’s recent pivot toward Asia. Wise argues that while opportunities for closer economic integration with China are seemingly infinite, so are the risks, and contends that the best outcomes have stemmed from endeavors where the rule of law, regulatory oversight, and a clear strategy exist on the Latin American side.
