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Why Stock Markets Crash
The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought mont...
The Science of Disasters
This book tackles these questions by applying advanced methods from statistical physics and related fields to all types of non-linear dynamics prone to disaster. It gives readers an insight into the problems of catastrophes and is one of the first books on the theories of disaster. Based on physical and mathematical theories, the general principles of disaster appearance are explained.
The Statistical Mechanics of Financial Markets
A careful examination of the interaction between physics and finance. It takes a look at the 100-year-long history of co-operation between the two fields and goes on to provide new research results on capital markets - taken from the field of statistical physics. The random walk model, well known in physics, is one good example of where the two disciplines meet. In the world of finance it is the basic model upon which the Black-Scholes theory of option pricing and hedging has been built. The underlying assumptions are discussed using empirical financial data and analogies to physical models such as fluid flows, turbulence, or superdiffusion. On this basis, new theories of derivative pricing and risk control can be formulated.
The Logistic Map and the Route to Chaos
Pierre-Francois Verhulst, with his seminal work using the logistic map to describe population growth and saturation, paved the way for the many applications of this tool in modern mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology, economics and sociology. Indeed nowadays the logistic map is considered a useful and paradigmatic showcase for the route leading to chaos. This volume gathers contributions from some of the leading specialists in the field to present a state-of-the art view of the many ramifications of the developments initiated by Verhulst over a century ago.
Essentials of Econophysics Modelling
This book is a course in methods and models rooted in physics and used in modelling economic and social phenomena. It covers the discipline of econophysics, which creates an interface between physics and economics. Besides the main theme, it touches on the theory of complex networks and simulations of social phenomena in general. After a brief historical introduction, the book starts with a list of basic empirical data and proceeds to thorough investigation of mathematical and computer models. Many of the models are based on hypotheses of the behaviour of simplified agents. These comprise strategic thinking, imitation, herding, and the gem of econophysics, the so-called minority game. At the...
New Directions in Statistical Physics
This book provides a unique insight into the latest breakthroughs in a consistent manner, at a level accessible to undergraduates, yet with enough attention to the theory and computation to satisfy the professional researcher Statistical physics addresses the study and understanding of systems with many degrees of freedom. As such it has a rich and varied history, with applications to thermodynamics, magnetic phase transitions, and order/disorder transformations, to name just a few. However, the tools of statistical physics can be profitably used to investigate any system with a large number of components. Thus, recent years have seen these methods applied in many unexpected directions, three of which are the main focus of this volume. These applications have been remarkably successful and have enriched the financial, biological, and engineering literature. Although reported in the physics literature, the results tend to be scattered and the underlying unity of the field overlooked.
Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences
A modern up-to-date introduction for readers outside statistical physics. It puts emphasis on a clear understanding of concepts and methods and provides the tools that can be of immediate use in applications.
Modelling Critical and Catastrophic Phenomena in Geoscience
This book presents a broad survey of models for critical and catastrophic phenomena in the geosciences, with strong emphasis on earthquakes. It assumes the perspective of statistical physics, which provides the theoretical frame for dealing with complex systems in general. This volume addresses graduate students wishing to specialize in the field and researchers working or interested in the field having a background in the physics, geosciences or applied mathematics.
Extreme Financial Risks
"Clearly elucidates extreme financial risks associated with rare events such as financial crashes. The highlight of the book is the delineation of various copulas in conjunction with financial dependences among different assets of a portfolio. In particular, the insightful discussion on quadrant and orthant dependences casts new light on the connection between marginal models and financial dependence...brings a vivid portrayal of the subject." -- MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS
