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Leveraging urbanization for inclusive development in Malawi: Anchoring the secondary city development of Salima and Chipoka in a modernizing fruit value chain
Agricultural development in Malawi faces an important conundrum. While agriculture is the backbone of the economy, many smallholders will not be able to farm their way out of poverty. Shrinking farmland size severely limits the total income that can be earned from farming, even at much higher levels of productivity per area farmed than are now achieved. Urbanization embedded in the modernization of locally relevant value chains provides a promising pathway to inclusive development as it serves to simultaneously raise farm incomes, create income-earning opportunities off the farm, and create specialized urban hubs that can boost urban economic growth through agglomeration economies. After lay...
Rural underemployment and urbanization: Insights from a nine year household panel survey from Malawi
Rural labor markets in Africa are frequently characterized by underemployment, with farmers unable to fully deploy throughout the year one of their most important assets—their labor. Using a nine-year panel data set on 1,407 working-age adults from rural Malawi, we document changes in rural underemployment over this period and how they are associated with urbanization. Nearby urban growth results in increased hours worked in casual labor (ganyu) and in non-agricultural sectors, at the expense of work on the household farm. Improved urban access is also associated with a small increase in wage labor and, at the intensive mar gin, with hours supplied in household enterprises. We draw lessons from these results for policies, investments, and interventions to leverage urban growth for rural development.
Impacts of the war in Ukraine on Malawi
Although geographically distant, there are multiple channels through which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can affect the lives of Malawians. Before the invasion, Russia’s and Ukraine’s exports accounted for about 12% of total calories (Glauber and Laborde, 2022) traded in the world, and the two countries were among the top five global exporters for many important cereals and oilseeds, including wheat, barley, sunflowers and maize (Figure 1). Ukraine is also an important source of sunflower seed oil, supplying about 50% of the global market. These exports have now largely seized as a result of war-related disruptions to production and logistics as well as economic sanctions on Russia and Belarus, its ally. This shock reduction of supply is driving up food commodity prices worldwide and will continue to do so while the current situation persists. The ongoing fighting has already disrupted the planting of barley and will soon disrupt the planting of maize, wheat, and oilseeds. The choke on global supply will thus continue for months (if not years) to come.
Can urban growth reduce rural underemployment?
In a recent IFPRI working paper, Van Cappellen and De Weerdt (2023), we show how urban growth reduces underemployment in the rural hinterlands of towns and cities. But leveraging these labor market linkages between urban and rural areas for inclusive growth and poverty reduction will depend on overcoming two barriers. The first is that the jobs created are primarily low-skill, low productivity, and often casual (ganyu). Raising the human capital and productivity of the continually growing pool of rural workers, while simultaneously raising rural incomes to increase demand for the kind of off-farm goods and services they can provide, will be critical. Secondly, the labor market linkages betwe...
Malawi’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation
Malawi experienced modest growth from 2009 to 2019, with average annual GDP growth of 4.7 percent. The global COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant slowdown in 2020 and 2021, and the economy has not yet rebounded to pre-pandemic levels (World Bank 2023). At the time of writing, GDP is projected to grow at 2.4 percent in 2023, which in combination with population growth of 2.7 percent would result in a 0.3 percent contraction of GDP per capita (IMF 2023). At the core of the failure to resume pre-pandemic economic growth rates are a worsening debt crisis, a balance of payment crisis, an acute shortage of foreign exchange reserves, and several external shocks (World Bank 2022). The latter include the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the devastation caused by cyclone Freddy in 2023 (De Weerdt and Duchoslav 2022; Diao et al. 2022).
Pricing farmer contributions under AIP
The market price of fertilizer in Malawi has, in nominal terms, more than tripled compared to two years ago. The price hikes were both unexpected and beyond the control of the government, linked to global events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This changed global reality reinforces the need to rethink the way in which Malawi approaches its agricultural input subsidies. A number of options for reforming the AIP have been outlined in recent policy work, but all have medium to long term implementation horizons. We will not repeat these here and instead refer the interested reader to Chadza and Duchoslav (2022), De Weerdt and Duchoslav (2022), and Nyondo et al....
Fertilizer subsidies in Malawi: From past to present
Malawi has been at the center of the debate on agricultural input subsidies in Africa ever since it significantly expanded its fertilizer subsidy program about two decades ago. When it did so, Malawi was a trailblazer, receiving international attention for seemingly leveraging the subsidy program to move the country from a situation characterized by food deficits and widespread hunger to crop production surpluses. In this paper we trace the history of Malawi’s subsidy program over the past 70 years, describing how the country arrived at that watershed moment earlier this century and how the subsidy program has developed since. We show how donor support for the program has wavered and how e...
Primary agricultural cooperatives in Malawi: Structure, conduct, and performance
Primary agricultural cooperatives in Malawi, in contrast to other farmer-level organizations, have legal status and can own assets, borrow money for their operations, and sign contracts, making it easier for them to do business for the profit of their members. Conceptually, such cooperatives enable their member-farmers to achieve economies of scale for their commercial activities. By joining together in a cooperative, members can obtain commercial inputs at lower prices closer to wholesale prices than if they purchased the inputs as individuals. In selling their output, by aggregating their crops and other products into larger lots that the cooperative then negotiates to sell on their behalf...
Guiding principles of AIP reform
Malawi’s Affordable Inputs Program (AIP) currently combines an economic and a social objective, respectively: (i) increasing agricultural production; and (ii) assisting poor farming households.
