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Dollarization
Theoretical and empirical analysis of de jure dollarization. With the persistent instability of international financial markets, emerging economies are exploring new ways to reduce exposure to capital flow volatility. Some analysts argue that financially open economies are best served by more flexible regimes, while others argue in favor of extreme exchange rate regimes that have a strong commitment to a fixed parity or dispense with an independent currency. The successful launch of the euro has made more realistic the prospect of replacing a national currency with a strong foreign one. Recent examples include the adoption of the US dollar by Ecuador and El Salvador. The introduction of a fo...
Fear of Appreciation
Abstract: In recent years the term "fear of floating" has been used to describe exchange rate regimes that, while officially flexible, in practice intervene heavily to avoid sudden or large depreciations. However, the data reveals that in most cases (and increasingly so in the 2000s) intervention has been aimed at limiting appreciations rather than depreciations, often motivated by the neo-mercantilist view of a depreciated real exchange rate as protection for domestic industries. As a first step to address the broader question of whether this view delivers on its promise, the authors examine whether this "fear of appreciation" has a positive impact on growth performance in developing economies. The authors show that depreciated exchange rates appear to induce higher growth, but that the effect, rather than through import substitution or export booms as argued by the mercantilist view, works largely through the deepening of domestic savings and capital accumulation.
El juego de la mancha
Una oleada de despidos, una ciudad infectada de suicidios y de accidentes extraños, de escuchas y delaciones. Donde saber, o conocer a alguien que sabe, es excusa válida para aparecer en una lista. Como en el juego de la macha. Falsas denuncias, el accionar descontrolado de grupos de inteligencia, una sucesión de siniestros, un reguero de cadáveres y la sospecha de todos contra todos. Los medios de comunicación devuelven sórdidas imágenes de aquellos que se atreven a la sospecha. Las acusaciones neutralizan toda rebeldía y la resistencia es inútil: cualquier excusa es válida para acabar fichado en una lista. Nadie se salva de ser, a la vez, perseguido y perseguidor, como en el juego de la macha: "Si sabés algo, si conocés a alguien que sabe algo, sos boleta". Fantasía retrofuturista de ingeniería social, esta distopía melancólica nos sumerge en una historia sinuosa y poblada de implícitos, y a sus protagonistas, en una realidad oscura que los llena de preguntas.
Culebrón
Una anécdota de sobremesa, una acosadora desaparecida, una celebridad medíática con un pasado oscuro, un escritor desesperado, un ejercicio de reconstrucción de la realidad; una vuelta de tuerca al thriller erótico en la que nada es lo que parece a primera vista. Culebrón cuenta la historia de Juan, filósofo convertido en conductor de televisión, y Elisa, enigmática mujer a la que conoció durante su juventud. Juan y Elisa recuperan contacto luego de treinta años y entablan una relación basada en promesas y fantasías sexuales que jamás concretarán. Lo que comienza como un juego de seducción, una anécdota entretenida contada en una sobremesa, terminará siendo un culebrón en el que la infidelidad, el incesto y hasta el asesinato hacen acto de presencia. Novela atrapante y perturbadora, cruce perfecto entre Historias de Nueva York de Paul Auster y Vértigo de Alfred Hitchcock, este Culebrón de E. L. Yeyati renueva el género del thriller erótico con un apasionante juego en el que el narrador va desgranando no sólo el origen de la historia de Elisa y Juan, sino también su rol accidental en el desarrollo de la trama y su inesperado final.
The Price of Inconvertible Deposits
The Argentine crisis witnessed, among other things, a deposit run, the suspension of deposit convertibility, and a "boom" in the stock market. The authors argue that this boom reflects the cost that depositors were willing to incur to get their money out of the banking system, in light of the impending risks. This boom was generalized to all stocks and more pronounced in liquid stocks. Furthermore, the boom was a symptom that deposits were effectively restricted and that investors were not able to circumvent capital controls. This paper--a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to understand financial crises.
Financial globalization : unequal blessings
De la Torre, Levy Yeyati, and Schmukler present a framework to analyze financial globalization. They argue that financial globalization needs to take into account the relation between money (particularly in its role as store of value), asset and factor price flexibility, and contractual and regulatory institutions. Countries that have the "blessed trinity" (international currency, flexible exchange rate regime, and sound contractual and regulatory environment) can integrate successfully into the world financial markets. But developing countries normally display the "unblessed trinity" (weak currency, fear of floating, and weak institutional framework). The authors define and discuss two alternative avenues (a "dollar trinity" and a "peso trinity") for developing countries to safely embrace international financial integration while the blessed trinity remains beyond reach. This paper--a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, and the Investment Climate Team, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the Bank to assess the implications of financial globalization for emerging economies.
International Financial Integration Through the Law of One Price
"The authors argue that the cross-market premium (the ratio between the domestic and the international market price of cross-listed stocks) provides a valuable measure of international financial integration, reflecting accurately the factors that segment markets and inhibit price arbitrage. Applying to equity markets recent methodological developments in the purchasing power parity literature, they show that nonlinear Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models properly capture the behavior of the cross market premium. The estimates reveal the presence of narrow non-arbitrage bands and indicate that price differences outside these bands are rapidly arbitraged away, much faster than what has been documented for good markets. Moreover, the authors find that financial integration increases with market liquidity. Capital controls, when binding, contribute to segment financial markets by widening the non-arbitrage bands and making price disparities more persistent. Crisis episodes are associated with higher volatility, rather than by more persistent deviations from the law of one price. "--World Bank web site.
Market Discipline Under Systemic Risk
"Levy-Yeyati, Martinez Peria, and Schmukler show that systemic risk exerts a significant impact on the behavior of depositors, sometimes overshadowing their responses to standard bank fundamentals. Systemic risk can affect market discipline both regardless of and through bank fundamentals. First, worsening systemic conditions can directly threaten the value of deposits by way of dual agency problems. Second, to the extent that banks are exposed to systemic risk, systemic shocks lead to a future deterioration of fundamentals not captured by their current values. Using data from the recent banking crises in Argentina and Uruguay, the authors show that market discipline is indeed quite robust o...
Porvenir
Polémico y provocador, Porvenir marca un antes y un después en el debate del desarrollo argentino. Con un enfoque interdisciplinario que elude el lugar común y la complacencia, reescribe y actualiza la discusión sobre sociedad, política, economía y cultura, y muestra los caminos hacia el futuro haciendo foco en la educación y la innovación. El desarrollo es un tren en movimiento: no sirve saber dónde está el tren ahora sino dónde estará cuando nos toque subir. ¿En qué dirección corre ese tren mundial y cómo nos subimos? ¿Cómo vamos de una sociedad de renta y consumo subsidiado a una de inversión y conocimiento? ¿Qué educación queremos? ¿Cómo recuperamos la capacidad d...
