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To derive real GDP, the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) recommends a technique called double deflation. Some countries use single deflation techniques, which fail to capture important relative price changes and introduce estimation errors in official GDP growth. We simulate the effects of single deflation to the GDP data of eight countries that use double deflation. We find that errors due to single deflation can be significant, but their magnitude and direction are not systematic over time and across countries. We conclude that countries still using single deflation should move to double deflation.
This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions, and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies and the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals. The importance of country-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time—in particular, the growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third of the increase in average income per capita growth between 1995–2004 and 2005–14. Stronger external demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growth accelerations, while a strengthening of any of the three conditions significantly decreases the probability of reversals.
The measurement of food consumption and expenditure is a fundamental component of any analysis of poverty and food security, and hence the importance and timeliness of devoting attention to the topic cannot be overemphasized as the international development community confronts the challenges of monitoring progress in implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In 2014, the International Household Survey Network published a desk review of the reliability and relevance of survey questions as included in 100 household surveys from low- and middle-income countries. The report was presented in March 2014 at the forty-fifth session of the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC),...
A Supply and Use Table (SUT) serve to increase the quality of GDP and related aggregates by providing a framework to detect and resolve inconsistencies in data sources. SUTs are also a powerful analytical tool that permit users to access information on detailed production functions, consumption, export, and import baskets, or to derive input-output tables. SUT compilation is data intensive and requires a balancing process. The balancing procedure is labor intensive and generally requires several long and sometimes tedious iterations, which has an adverse effect on timeliness. This note describes a basic algorithm developed by the IMF to balance supply and use tables automatically, allowing a much faster SUT balancing process. For training purposes, this algorithm has been implemented as an Excel tool SUTB, making it operational almost globally. The optimization process is illustrated with an example.
Migration is a development challenge. About 184 million people--2.3 percent of the world's population--live outside of their country of nationality. Almost half of them are in low- and middle-income countries. But what lies ahead? As the world struggles to cope with global economic imbalances, diverging demographic trends, and climate change, migration will become a necessity in the decades to come for countries at all levels of income. If managed well, migration can be a force for prosperity and can help achieve the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. 'World Development Report 2023' proposes an innovative approach to maximize the development impacts of cross-border movements on b...
Triumph and Despair tells the dramatic story of post-revolutionary Iran's first four decades, from its establishment in 1979 until today. The revolutionary coalition that overthrew the monarchy was at once democratic, populist and Islamic. The Islamists, and the Khomeinists in particular, were able to capitalize effectively on prevailing conditions on the ground; to frame the new republic's constitution, capture nascent institutions, and consolidate their power by eliminating opponents through a reign of terror. Once the war with Iraq was over and after the death of the new order's charismatic founder, Ayatollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic was consolidated: first by tweaking its instituti...
Since the late 1970s, China has undergone perhaps the most sweeping process of urbanization ever witnessed. This is typically understood as a story of growth, encompassing rapid development and economic dynamism alongside environmental degradation and social dislocation. However, over the past decade, China’s leaders have claimed that the country’s urbanization has entered a new stage that prioritizes “quality.” What does China’s new urban vision entail, and what does the future hold in store? Richard Hu unpacks recent trends in urban planning and development to explore the making and imagining of the contemporary Chinese city. He focuses on three key concepts—the “green revolu...
Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. Stronger activity, expectations of more robust global demand, reduced deflationary pressures, and optimistic financial markets are all upside developments. But structural impediments to a stronger recovery and a balance of risks that remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term, remain important challenges. Chapter 2 examines how changes in external conditions may affect the pace of income convergence between advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Chapter 3 looks at the declining share of income that goes to labor, including the root causes and how the trend affects inequality. Overall, this report stresses the need for credible strategies in advanced economies and in those whose markets are emerging and developing to tackle a number of common challenges in an integrated global economy.
Global Problems, Global Solutions: Prospects for a Better World approaches social problems from a global perspective with an emphasis on using one’s sociological imagination. Perfect for instructors who involve students in research, this text connects problems borne by individuals to regional, global and historical forces, and stresses the importance of evidence in forming opinions and policies addressing social issues. The Second Edition explores three broad themes--nourishing human capital, restoring civility, and sustaining natural and manufactured environments--as it examines the causes and consequences of a range of problems related to economic inequality, discrimination and persecution, war and violence, food production, population flows, health and longevity, the environment, and other issues that we encounter in our lives. The book concludes with a chapter on politics and government, underscoring the need for good governance at all levels–and cooperation among many layers of government–to build a better world.
A reminder that war is not always, or even generally, good for long-term growth Many believe that despite its destructive character, war ultimately boosts long‑term economic growth. For the United States this view is often supported by appeal to the experience of the Second World War, understood as a triumph of both production and productivity. Alexander Field shows that between 1941 and 1945 manufacturing productivity actually declined, depressed by changes in the output mix and resource shocks from enemy action, including curtailed access to natural rubber and, on the Eastern Seaboard, petroleum. The war forced a shift away from producing goods in which the country had a great deal of ex...