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Cross-border Banking and the Circumvention of Macroprudential and Capital Control Measures
We analyze the joint impact of macroprudential and capital control measures on cross-border banking flows, while controlling for multidimensional aspects in lender-and-borrower-relationships (e.g., distance, cultural proximity, microprudential regulations). We uncover interesting spillover effects from both types of measures when applied either by lender or borrowing countries, with many of them most likely associated with circumvention or arbitrage incentives. While lender countries’ macroprudential policies reduce direct cross-border banking outflows, they are associated with larger outflows through local affiliates. Direct cross-border inflows are higher in borrower countries with more usage of macroprudential policies, and are linked to circumvention motives. In the case of capital controls, most spillovers seem to be present through local affiliates. We do not find evidence to support the idea that additional capital inflow controls could interact with macro-prudential policies to mitigate cross-border spillovers.
Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants and Disconnect
We provide a systematic empirical treatment of short-term Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations have much larger volatilities than most G10 currencies and move in an opposite direction during global risk-off episodes. While off-shore EM CIP deviations are sensitive to changes in FX dealers’ risk-bearing capacities and global risk aversion, on-shore EM CIP deviations are largely unresponsive in segmented FX markets. Moreover, the sensitivity of offshore EM CIP deviations to global risk factors for currencies with segmented FX markets is stronger compared to their counterparts with integrated FX markets. We find weak evidence of country default risk affecting EM CIP deviations after accounting for global factors.
The Global Banking Network: What is Behind the Increasing Regionalization Trend?
This paper analyses the nature of the increasing regionalization process in global banking. Despite the large decline in aggregate cross-border banking lending volumes, some parts of the global banking network are currently more interlinked regionally than before the Global Financial Crisis. After developing a simple theoretical model capturing banks' internationalization decisions, our estimation shows that this regionalization trend is present even after controlling for traditional gravitational variables (e.g. distance, language, legal system, etc.), especially among lenders in EMs and non-core banking systems, such as Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Moreover, this regionalization trend was present before the GFC, but it has increased since then, and it seems to be associated with regulatory variables and the opportunities created by the retrenchment of several European lenders.
Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants
For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).
The Global Banking Network in the Aftermath of the Crisis: Is There Evidence of De-globalization?
Post-crisis dynamics show a shrinkage in the overall amount of crossborder bank lending, which has been interpreted in the literature as a retreat in financial globalization. In this paper, we argue that aggregate figures are not sufficient to support such a claim in terms of the overall structure of the global banking network. Based on a systematic approach to measuring, mapping and analyzing financial interconnectedness among countries using network theory, we show that, despite the decline in aggregate lending volumes, the structure of the network has developed increased connections in some dimensions. Some parts of the network are currently more interlinked regionally than before the cri...
The Road to Shenzhen
It is the early 1990s and Zhou Haonan, an innocent young man from a rural family in China's West Canton Province, travels to the `golden city' of Shenzhen to seek his fortune. Kind and caring but highly ambitious, he works as an international businessman, becomes a Sanda boxing champion and even sells his blood as he spends the next 20 years striving desperately to achieve his dream of a Shenzhen permanent residence permit and a home of his own. Despite a string of humiliating failures and disasters and cruel treatment by the women who enter his life, he somehow manages to get back on his feet and carry on through all the setbacks which life throws at him. The Road to Shenzhen is one of very few novels ever to be written in English by a Chinese author who has lived all his life in China.ÿ
A Modern Guide to Financial Shocks and Crises
Offering a comprehensive guide to financial shocks and crises, this book explores their increasing occurrence in current market economies, as well as their power to wrench the macroeconomy. The book discusses three critical questions: what causes financial shocks; which channels may exacerbate their impact; and what policies could help avoid them or limit their negative effect on the economy and society at large.
The Road to Shenzhen
It is the early 1990s and Zhou Haonan, an innocent young man from a rural family in China's West Canton Province, travels to the `golden city' of Shenzhen to seek his fortune. Kind and caring but highly ambitious, he works as an international businessman, becomes a Sanda boxing champion and even sells his blood as he spends the next 20 years striving desperately to achieve his dream of a Shenzhen permanent residence permit and a home of his own. Despite a string of humiliating failures and disasters and cruel treatment by the women who enter his life, he somehow manages to get back on his feet and carry on through all the setbacks which life throws at him. The Road to Shenzhen is one of very few novels ever to be written in English by a Chinese author who has lived all his life in China.ÿ
