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Money Employment and Inflation
Theoretical monograph reformulating macro-economic analysis - includes economic models on the determination of the level of employment and the rate of inflation. Bibliography pp. 259 to 263 and graphs.
Annexation Or Conquest? The Economics of Empire Building
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) presents an abstract of the February 2001 paper entitled "Annexation or Conquest? The Economics of Empire Building," written by Herschel I. Grossman and Juan Mendoza. The full text of the paper may be purchased from the NBER and the paper is number W8109 in the NBER Working Paper series. This paper discusses the economics strategies of Uncoerced Annexation, Coerced Annexation, and Attempted Conquest and shows how these strategies depend on such economic factors as the economic gains from imperial expansion and liquidity constraints on financial imperial armies.
"Fifty-four Forty Or Fight!"
This paper develops an explanation for historical differences in the ways in which territorial disputes between sovereign states have been resolved. The main innovation in the analysis is to allow for three possible equilibria: ú an unfortified border; ú a fortified but peaceful border; and ú armed conflict. The analysis shows that the possibility of a credible agreement to divide a contested territory and to leave the resulting border unfortified depends on the effectiveness of spending on arms by one state relative to another and on the importance that states attach to the potential costs of future armed conflicts. The analysis also shows that, if all relevant parameters are common knowledge, then, even if an agreement to have an unfortified border would not be credible, states can resolve a territorial dispute peacefully by dividing the contested territory and fortifying the border. Finally, the paper points out that unverifiable innovations, especially innovations in military technology, can cause a peaceful settlement to break down, resulting in an armed conflict that in turn can provide the basis for a new peaceful settlement.
The Political Economy of War Debts and Inflation
This paper argues that before World War II the desire to maintain a trustworthy reputation for honoring war debts was an important factor in inducing deflationary postwar monetary policies in both the United Kingdom and the United States. The paper then asks why this policy objective did not serve to induce either a deflationary monetary policy or the honoring in full of war debts following World War II. The discussion focuses on differences in economic and political conditions after World War II, especially the extension of the voting franchise, the increased economic and political power of organized labor, and, perhaps most importantly, the large postwar demands on national resources with which the servicing of World-War-II debts had to compete. The analysis also argues that, because these postwar developments were unforeseeable, but verifiable, contingencies, the partial default on World-War-II debts was excusable and, accordingly, did not cause either the United Kingdom or the United States to lose its trustworthy reputation.
Biography of an Idea
The culmination of John Maynard Keynes's thought and lifework was The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Here, placing it in the context of his era, David Felix examines the evolution of Keynes's theorizing. He boldly claims that The General Theory lacks logical and factual support as pure theory, but is an achievement of great statesmanship in political economy. Felix argues that Keynes's ideas have misled successive generations of students and practitioners. He suggests that a more discriminating view of his thought can reconcile Keynesian views with neoclassical theory and replace the false synthesis that dominates contemporary text-books with a truer one. Biography of an I...
Familial Love and Intertemporal Optimality
His paper analyzes the intertemporal efficiency and optimality of steady states within overlapping-generations models in which the utility of individual working couples, depends on the consumption of their parents and children as well as their own consumption. The analysis considers both a basic model in which altruistic behavior can take only the form of gifts of consumption goods from working couples to their retired parents and an extended model in which altruistic behavior also can take the form of bequests from parents to their surviving children. In the basic model, saving only involves storing consumption goods, whereas the extended model includes capital and neoclassical production. ...
Counterfactuals, Forecasts, and Choice-theoretic Modelling of Policy
This paper focuses on the problem of formulating an analysis of economic policy that is consistent with rational expectations. Cooley, LeRoy, and Raymon show that the Lucas and Sargent strategy for econometric policy evaluation is itself vulnerable to the logic of the Lucas critique. The present discussion develops the distinction between counter factuals and forecasts to clarify the nature of the inconsistencies in the Lucas and Sargent strategy. The paper goes on to propose and to illustrate a strategy for positive economic analysis that incorporates choice-theoretical modelling of policy. Such modelling can allow better forecasting, but it also shifts attention away from policy actions an...
Economic Thought Since Keynes
Economic Thought Since Keynes provides a concise overview of changing economic thought in the latter part of the twentieth century. Part 1 gives an analysis of topics including: * Keynes and the General Theory, * the triumph of interventionism, * the neoclassical synthesis, * the resurgence of liberalism. Part 11 gives a concise biography of the 150 most influential economists since Keynes. This invaluable book will be a useful reference tool for anyone teaching or studying economics.
The Natural-rate Hypothesis, the Rational-expectations Hypothesis, and the Remarkable Survival of Non-market-clearing Assumptions
Non-market-clearing models continue to dominate analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations and discussions of macroeconomic policy. This situation is remarkable because non-market-clearing assumptions seem to be inconsistent with the essential presumption of neoclassical economic analysis that market outcomes exhaust opportunities for mutually advantageous exchange. Non-market-clearing models apparently have survived because they have evolved to incorporate both the natural-rate hypothesis and the rational-expectations hypothesis and because the alternative "equilibrium" approach has failed empirically. This paper expands on these ideas and briefly discusses some of the problems that we face in attempting to evaluate empirically the recent vintage of non-market-clearing models. The main difficulties seem to involve accounting for shifts in the natural levels of real aggregates and specifying the timing of the past anticipations that determine the effects of current monetary policy
