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The Cost of Future Policy: Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets in the G7
This paper compiles the Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets for all G7 countries and examines their relationship with government borrowing costs. In 2018, all G7 countries have negative Intertemporal Net Financial Worth (INFW), falling short of their intertemporal budget constraint. A decomposition of the evolution of INFW shows that short-term fluctuations are mainly driven by fiscal policy changes, while in the long run demographic changes and health and pension obligations play a larger role. We find that on average a 10 percentage point of GDP increase in INFW reduces the (future) 10-1 year sovereign yield curve spread by 2.8 basis points. This results suggest that financial markets pay attention to governments’ future policy obligations, in addition to its current assets and liabilities.
Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy
This paper investigates the effects of unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy. Using recently proposed shadow interest rates to capture unconventional monetary policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) we estimate a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model for Canada - a useful case where foreign shocks can be proxied by U.S. variables alone. We find that, during the ZLB period, Canadian unconventional monetary policy increased output (measured by industrial production) by 0.013 percent per month on average while US unconventional monetary policy raised Canadian output by 0.127 percent per month on average. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of domestic unconventional monetary policy and the strong positive spillover effects that foreign unconventional monetary policies can have in a small open economy.
The Abolition of the Ottoman Caliphate, 1924
This book explores the decision by the Grand National Assembly of Turkey in 1924 to abolish the caliphate. The Ottoman sultans had long borne the title of caliphs of Islam, with all the prestigious authority throughout the Muslim world that went with it, and in the aftermath of the First World War the caliphate still retained great symbolic relevance.The book considers the questions that arose with its abolition, including whether or not the caliphate should be revived, reformed or replaced by other forms of political affiliation and organization. It also assesses more general issues concerning identity and legitimate authority, and how to reconcile time-honoured religious institutions and concepts with modernity, the nation-state and affiliations of an ethnic and religious nature. The book additionally addresses the debates within the pan-Islamic congresses concerning the fate of the caliphate, and the implications of its abolition for Kurdish–Turkish relations and for the British and French Empires with their large Muslim populations.
IMF Research Bulletin, December 2016
The Research Summaries in this issue of the IMF Research Bulletin cover “Tax Capacity and Growth” (by Vitor Gaspar, Laura Jaramillo, and Philippe Wingender), and “U.S. Shale Revolution and Its Spillover Effects on the Global Economy” (Ravi Balakrishnan, Keiko Honjo, Akito Matsumoto, and Andrea Pescatori). The Q&A coauthored by Amadou Sy and Mariama Sow covers “Seven Questions about the Relationship between Country Finance and Governance.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications is included in the IMF Research Bulletin. Readers can also find news on free-to-view articles from IMF Economic Review and a call for conference papers in this issue of the Bulletin.
South Africa
South Africa has made considerable economic and social strides since 1994, but faces significant challenges. Deep-rooted structural problems—infrastructure bottlenecks, skill mismatches, and harmful insider-outsider dynamics—have kept unemployment and inequality unacceptably high. Also, a confluence of external and domestic shocks, combined with heightened governance concerns and policy uncertainty, have weighed on confidence and growth. Though private balance sheets are still strong, vulnerabilities are elevated. 2016 growth is projected at 0.1 percent. Only a muted recovery is envisaged from 2017, with rising unemployment. Downside risks dominate and stem mainly from China, heightened global financial volatility, and domestic politics and possible policy missteps. Shocks could be amplified by extensive macro-financial linkages, especially if combined with sovereign credit rating downgrades to speculative grade. On the upside, the recent dialogue between social partners could catalyze reform implementation and invigorate growth.
Insight Turkey 2016 - Spring 2016 (Vol. 18, No.2)
The Syrian Crisis, the bloodiest front of the Arab uprisings and one of the main determinants of policies of regional and global powers, has been dominating international politics for the last five years. Having caused the death of more than 300 thousand civilians and forced relocation of more than 7 million Syrians, it is one of the direst international problems that the global powers must deal with. It began as a local issue, but after a very short period of time it morphed into a proxy war between regional and global powers. “Redlines” drawn by regional and global actors were crossed, yet there has been no tangible reaction to these violations. Among others, chemical weapons were used, crimes against humanity were committed, fundamental human rights were repeatedly violated. Over time, the crisis has revealed limitations and maladies of the actors involved.
Bakele
“İlk ‘Canım’ demek istediğinde ar etmiş dedem, ‘Hanım’ dese ‘malım’ demiş gibi olur diye korkmuş, ‘Vesile’ dese çok resmî, soğuk. Ama kendinden tarafa bakmasını istiyormuş, onu görmesini, onun içini, yüreğini, sevdasını fark etmesini istiyormuş; anlatacak, dökülecek, gerekirse ağlayacakmış. ‘Baksana’ dese olmaz, ‘Bak hele...’ demiş, devamını getirebilecekmiş gibi. Bakele dönüp bakmış. Dedem bütün söyleyeceklerini unutmuş, öylece kalmış.” En safından aşk, hani, hasretle imtihan edilen… Aşka, dosta, sırdaşa, muhabbete hasret, hasretin çileleri… Gönül yaraları, mutsuzluklar ve mutsuzluğu sıkıp sıkıp mutluluğunu oradan çıkartanlar… İyi niyetli beceriksizlikler, becerikli kötü niyetler… Ayıbı bilenler, bilmeyenler… Hayırsızlar uğursuzlar… Sezgin Kaymaz, bu kitaptaki kısa hikâyelerinde yine o hasretin, o muhabbetin peşinden gidiyor: Darlığın yokluğun kıtlığın içinden, en beklenmeyecek yerde insaniyet cevheri buluyor, tozunu silkip uzatıyor bize.
Directory of Scholarly Journals in Turkey
Scholarly journals are the capillaries of the scientific world, ensuring the circulation of knowledge. Moreover, scholarly journals guide and indicate the scientific development in an academic field of study or in a country. Scholarly journals, which transfer and spread scientific information, are intended to properly fulfill their functions, preventing the transfer of imperfect or incorrect information to the science world. Significant issues are, therefore, inevitable in the characteristics of scientific studies in such disciplines and countries where the scholarly journals do not fulfill their functions properly. This study encompasses all scholarly journals published in Turkey in all fields of science and other disciplines. The reference questions in this study are grouped under three main categories: the contact and publication information, article evaluation, and publishing information. The number of journals in this present study totals 1,910.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015: Western Hemisphere Department
Economies in the Western Hemisphere are generally seeing a slowdown in growth. The U.S. economy regained momentum after a slow start at the beginning of the year, while in Latin America and the Caribbean economic activity continues to decelerate. Stronger U.S. growth should benefit countries in the region, especially those with tighter links through trade, remittances, and tourism (Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean). Weaker commodity prices for the foreseeable future, however, will continue to hurt South America's net commodity exporters, lowering national incomes, reducing investment, and worsening fiscal balances. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent y...
U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to GCC Countries: Do Oil Prices Matter?
This paper provides empirical evidence that the size of the spillovers from U.S. monetary policy to non-oil GDP growth in the GCC countries depends on the level of oil prices. The potential channels through which oil prices could affect the effectiveness of monetary policy are discussed. We find that the level of oil prices tends to dampen or amplify the growth impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on the non-oil economies in the GCC.
