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Expert Judgment and Expert Systems
This volume is an outgrowth of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "Expert Judgment and Expert Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. Support for the Workshop was provided by the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs, the U.S. Army Research Institute, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. The Workshop brought together researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of those goals. We wish to express our appreciation and thanks to the following persons for their support and assistance: John Adams, Vincent T. Covello, Luis da Cunha, Claire Jeseo, B. Michael Kantrowitz, Margaret Lally, Judith Orasanu, R. M. Rodrigues, and Sandor P. Schuman.
Negotiation Processes: Modeling Frameworks and Information Technology
This book focuses on negotiation processes and how negotiation modeling frameworks and information technology can support these. A modeling framework for negotiation as a purposeful complex adaptive process is presented and computer-implemented in the first three chapters. Two game-theoretic contributions use non-cooperative games in extensive form and a computer-implemented graph model for conflict resolution, respectively. Two chapters use the negotiators' joint utility distribution to provide problem structure and computer support. A chapter on cognitive support uses restructurable modeling as a framework. One chapter matches information technologies with negotiation tasks. Another develops computer support based on preference programming. Two final chapters develop a stakeholder approach to support system evaluation, and a research framework for them, respectively. Negotiation Processes: Modeling Frameworks and Information Technology will be of interest to researchers and students in the areas of negotiation, group decision/negotiation support systems and management science, as well as to practising negotiators interested in this technology.
The Essential Brunswik
A selection of the author's English language papers, 1935-1957.
Human Judgment
There are four basic goals for research in SJT (Social Judgment Theory): - to analyze judgment tasks and judgmental processes; - to analyze the relations between judgmental systems (i.e. to analyze agreement and its structure), and between tasks and judgmental systems (i.e. to analyze achievement and its structure; - to understand how relations between judgmental systems and between judgmental systems and tasks come to be whatever they are (i.e. to understand processes of communication and learning and their effects upon achievement and agreement); - to find means of improving the relation between judgmental systems (improving agreement) and between judgmental systems and tasks (improving achievement).
LLRW Disposal Facility Siting
Planning for the management of nuclear wastes -- whatever their level of radioactivity -- is one of the most important environmental problems for all societies that produce utility, industrial, medical, or other radioactive waste products. Attemps to site low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities in Western industrial societies, however, have repeatedly engendered conflicts between governments, encountered vehement opposition on the part of local citizen groups, and given rise to overt hostilities among involved parties. LLRW Disposal Facility Siting is the result of a study designed to learn more about the causes underlying failed and successful efforts to site LLRW disposal facilitie...
Judgment and Decision Making
This work examines issues such as medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labour negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision-making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
Risk Evaluation and Management
Public attention has focused in recent years on an array of technological risks to health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, responsibilities for technological risk as sessment, evaluation, and management have grown in both the public and private sectors because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks inherent in modem society. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problems of assessing and balancing risks, costs, and benefits. The need to help society cope with technological risks has given rise to a new intellectual endeavor: the social and behavioral study of issues in risk evaluation and risk management. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many fields. Analyzing social and behavioral issues requires the efforts of political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, econ omists, psychologists, philosophers, and policy analysts, among others.
Human Judgment and Social Policy
With numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics, the author presents a comprehensive examination of the underlying dynamics of judgment, dramatizing its important role in the formation of social policies which affect us all.
Expertise and Decision Support
This volume brings together a range of contributors from Europe and North America. All contributions were especially commissioned with a view to e- cidating a major multidisciplinary topic that is of concern to both academics and practitioners. The focus of the book is on expert judgment and its interaction with decision support systems. In the first part, the nature of expertise is discussed and characteristics of expert judges are described. Issues concemed with the eval- tion of judgment in the psychological laboratory are assessed and contrasted with studies of expert judgment in ecologically valid contexts. In addition, issues concerned with eliciting and validating expert knowledge are...
