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Informality, Development, and the Business Cycle in North Africa
North African economies are characterized by a significant share of informal activity and employment. About two-thirds of workers in North Africa operate without any formal arrangement and social protection, and about 30 percent of GDP is estimated to be produced by informal workers and firms. This paper finds that while a few key structural characteristics could explain “normal” informality in North Africa, policy distortions explain a large share of excess informality. Among the structural factors that can lead to high informality, the relatively lower level of human capital and younger population help explain the high informality in the region, as low-skilled and young people generall...
The CFA Franc Zone
About one-third of countries covered by the IMF's African Department are members of the CFA franc zone. With most other countries moving away from fixed exchange rates, the issue of an adequate policy framework to ensure the sustainability of the CFA franc zone is clearly of interest to policymakers and academics. However, little academic research exists in the public domain. This book aims to fill this void by bringing together work undertaken in the context of intensified regional surveillance and highlighting the current challenges and the main policy requirements if the arrangements are to be carried forward. The book is based on empirical research by a broad group of IMF economists, with contributions from several outside experts.
Preparing Financial Sectors for a Green Future
The financial sectors of the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) countries should play an important role in supporting climate-related policies for the region. The sectors are vulnerable to downside risks from climate-related shocks and at the same time offer the potential to help fill the financing gap for needed adaptation and mitigation strategies. Successful approaches to climate change in the region therefore need to coherently integrate financial sector strategies within the overall policy framework to meet this important challenge. To this end, policymakers must ensure that financial sectors are prepared for a green future. This means enhancing the resilience of banks to physical and...
Why Is Tunisia’s Unemployment So High? Evidence From Policy Factors
Tunisia has one of the highest unemployment rates within the Middle East and Central Asia. We look at the extent to which institutional factors explain those high unemployment levels. We also assess unemployment cyclicality, by looking at the determinants of labor market sensitivity to the output gap. We find that during the last decade the deterioration of institutional factors that affect labor demand explain not only about a quarter of the unemployment rate increase in Tunisia, but also Tunisia’s excess sensitivity of unemployment to the output gap. Our results suggest that an improved business environment and product market competition, increased labor market flexibility as well as reduced financial constraints and informality would help reduce Tunisia’s unemployment.
Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
The GCC region’s non-hydrocarbon growth momentum remains strong, driven by higher domestic demand, increased gross capital inflows, and reform implementation. Oil production – which depends on OPEC+ decisions – will be subdued in the near term. Inflation is contained and current account surpluses are high. Fiscal balances remain healthy, supported by fiscal reforms and high oil prices. The primary non-oil deficits are expected to decrease to 24 percent of GDP by 2028, with higher non-oil revenue reflecting sustained fiscal and structural reforms and contained expenditures. High global uncertainty is weighing on the outlook.
Did the Euro Crisis Affect Non-Financial Firm Stock Prices Through a Financial or Trade Channel?
This paper analyzes through what channels the euro crisis has affected firm valuations globally. It examines stock price responses over the past year for 3045 non-financial firms in 16 countries to three key crisis events. Using pre-crisis benchmarks, it separates effects arising from changes in external financing and trade conditions and examines how bank and trade linkages propagated effects across borders. It finds that policy measures announced impacted financially-constrained firms more, particularly in creditor countries with greater bank exposure to peripheral euro countries. Trade linkages with peripheral countries also played a role, with euro exchange rate movements causing differential effects.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2009, Sub-Sarahan Africa
Prepared by the IMF African Department, and published twice a year in English and French, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa analyzes the macroeconomic performance and short-term prospects of sub-Saharan Africa and provides and in-depth analysis of selected topics. The April 2009 Outlook includes two chapters: one on the macroeconomic impact of the global financial crisis on sub-Saharan Africa, and the other on the impact of the crisis on financial systems in the region. Detailed country data are provided in a statistical appendix.
