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Informality, Development, and the Business Cycle in North Africa
North African economies are characterized by a significant share of informal activity and employment. About two-thirds of workers in North Africa operate without any formal arrangement and social protection, and about 30 percent of GDP is estimated to be produced by informal workers and firms. This paper finds that while a few key structural characteristics could explain “normal” informality in North Africa, policy distortions explain a large share of excess informality. Among the structural factors that can lead to high informality, the relatively lower level of human capital and younger population help explain the high informality in the region, as low-skilled and young people generall...
Spain
This report summarizes the findings of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Update for Spain. Although there is a core of strong banks that are well managed and appear resilient to further shocks, vulnerabilities remain. Substantial progress has been made in reforming the former savings banks, and the most vulnerable institutions have either been resolved or are being restructured. Recent measures address the most problematic part of banks’ portfolios. Moving ahead, a further restructuring and recapitalization of some of the remaining weaker banks may be needed as a result of deteriorating economic conditions.
Ukraine
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Request for a Stand-by Arrangement. Ukraine’s economy had been in recession since mid-2012. Inconsistent macroeconomic policies pursued in 2012–2013 aggravated deep-seated vulnerabilities and eventually generated a balance-of-payment crisis. Key objectives of the authorities’ program are to restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen economic governance and transparency, and lay the foundation for robust and balanced economic growth. To achieve these objectives, the government will implement immediate measures aimed at securing stability, combined with deeper reforms to achieve and sustain external sustainability, ensure financial stability, restore sound public finances, rationalize the energy sector, and improve the business environment.
Why Is Tunisia’s Unemployment So High? Evidence From Policy Factors
Tunisia has one of the highest unemployment rates within the Middle East and Central Asia. We look at the extent to which institutional factors explain those high unemployment levels. We also assess unemployment cyclicality, by looking at the determinants of labor market sensitivity to the output gap. We find that during the last decade the deterioration of institutional factors that affect labor demand explain not only about a quarter of the unemployment rate increase in Tunisia, but also Tunisia’s excess sensitivity of unemployment to the output gap. Our results suggest that an improved business environment and product market competition, increased labor market flexibility as well as reduced financial constraints and informality would help reduce Tunisia’s unemployment.
The CFA Franc Zone
About one-third of countries covered by the IMF's African Department are members of the CFA franc zone. With most other countries moving away from fixed exchange rates, the issue of an adequate policy framework to ensure the sustainability of the CFA franc zone is clearly of interest to policymakers and academics. However, little academic research exists in the public domain. This book aims to fill this void by bringing together work undertaken in the context of intensified regional surveillance and highlighting the current challenges and the main policy requirements if the arrangements are to be carried forward. The book is based on empirical research by a broad group of IMF economists, with contributions from several outside experts.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is recovering strongly from the pandemic-induced recession. Higher oil prices provide an opportunity for accelerating further the strong reform drive brought about under Vision 2030.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s economy is booming, unemployment is at a record low, the output gap is closed, inflation is contained, and fiscal and external buffers have been rebuilt. The continuation of Vision 2030 reforms has helped advance the country’s economic diversification agenda, including through reduced reliance on oil.
Assessing the Risk of Private Sector Debt Overhang in the Baltic Countries
Between 2000 and 2007 nonfinancial private sector credit expanded rapidly in the Baltic countries, resulting in a non-negligible build-up of debt. Could this legacy debt hold back the economic recovery of the region? This paper analyzes the setting in each of the three countries and, with the help of an experimental Debt Overhang Index (DOI), draws tentative conclusions for domestic demand.
Financial Regulation in Africa
In the wake of the global financial crisis, there has been a worldwide search for alternative investment opportunities, away from advanced markets. The African continent is now one of the fastest-growing economic regions in the world and represents a viable destination for foreign direct and portfolio investment. This book, which is the first comprehensive analysis of financial integration and regulation in Africa, fills a huge gap in the literature on financial regulation and would constitute an invaluable source of information to policy makers, investors, researchers and students of financial regulation from an emerging and frontier markets perspective. It considers how financial integrati...
