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Central Bank Communication with the General Public
This paper surveys the literature on the role and effects of central bank communication with the general public, particularly regarding the formation of macroeconomic expectations. It starts by giving a brief overview of the recent "communication revolution" in central bank communication. The challenges for central bank communication with the public are outlined by surveying the evidence about low average knowledge on inflation and monetary policy in the population. Next, I evaluate the effects of direct communication, distinguishing between challenges to getting the attention of the public and effects of information on the public's inflation expectations once attention is gained. Finally, I review the role of the media as transmitter of central bank communication to the public.
Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations
After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their inflation expectations. For the expectations channel of monetary policy to work as intended, central banks need a thorough understanding of the formation process of expectations by the general public and of the relationship between expectations and economic choices. This warrants reliable and detailed data on consumers' expectations of macroeconomic variables such as inflation or interest rates. We thus survey the available survey data and issues regarding the measurement of macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we discuss the research frontier on important aspects of the expectations channel: We evaluate the evidence on whether expectations are formed consistently with standard macroeconomic relationships, discuss the insights with respect to the anchoring of inflation expectations, explore the role of narratives and preferences and lastly, we survey the research on causal effects of central bank communication on expectations and economic choices.
Measuring Macroeconomic Convergence and Divergence Within EMU Using Long Memory
This paper measures the convergence or divergence of EMU inflation rates and industrial production by testing for the existence of fractional cointegration relations. The notion of fractional cointegration allows for long-term equilibria with a higher degree of persistence than allowed for in the standard cointegration framework. We investigate both inflation and industrial production of EMU countries beginning with the introduction of the common currency and including the financial crisis and post-crisis period. Core as well as periphery countries are included in the study. By modelling possible breaks in the persistence structure we find evidence of fractional cointegration as well as a lower persistence before the crisis and a higher persistence by less evidence for fractional cointegration during the crisis. A second break which indicates the end of the crisis can be found as well. In addition, higher inflation persistence can be found for periphery than for core countries.
The Marginal Propensity to Consume During the COVID-19 Pandemic
In evaluating surveys conducted in Thailand and Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that the marginal propensity to consume is significantly larger for positive than for negative income shocks. This result contradicts a prediction from the lifecycle permanent income model with borrowing constraints as well as empirical evidence from industrialized countries. However, our finding is consistent with Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory, according to which the combination of income uncertainty and loss aversion can induce households to react more strongly to positive than to negative shocks.
