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Canonical Term-structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premiums
We study the dynamics of risk premiums on the German bond market, employing no-arbitrage term-structure models with both observable and un-observable state variables, recently popularized by Ang and Piazzesi (2003). We conduct a specification analysis based on a new canonical representation for this class of models. We find that risk premiums display a considerable variability over time, are strongly counter-cyclical and bear no significant relation to inflaiton.
Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling
Changes in the shape of the yield curve have traditionally been one of the key macroeconomic indicators of a likely change in economic outlook. However, the recent financial crises have created a challenge to the management of monetary policy, demanding a revision in the way that policymakers model expected changes in the economy. This volume brings together central bank economists and leading academic monetary economists to propose new methods for modelling the behaviour of interest rates. Topics covered include: the analysis and extraction of expectations of future monetary policy and inflation; the analysis of the short-term dynamics of money market interest rates; the reliability of existing models in periods of extreme market volatility and how to adjust them accordingly; and the role of government debt and deficits in affecting sovereign bond yields and spreads. This book will interest financial researchers and practitioners as well as academic and central bank economists.
