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Why Has the Cost of Navy Ships Risen?
Over the past several decades, increases in acquisition costs for U.S. Navy combatants have outpaced the rate of inflation. To understand why, the authors of this book examined two principal source categories of ship cost escalation (economy-driven factors and customer-driven factors) and interviewed various shipbuilders. Based on their analysis, the authors propose some ways the Navy might reduce ship costs in the future.
Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs
This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating th...
Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth
This analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to determine the causes of cost growth in 35 mature major defense acquisition programs. Four major sources of growth are identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous. The analysis shows that more than two-thirds of cost growth (measured as simple averages) is caused by decisions, most of which involve quantity changes, requirements growth, and schedule changes.
Maritime Strategy and Global Order
An international roster of top scholars explores the role of naval power and maritime trade in creating the modern international system. This book is both a history of maritime strategy, sea power, and seaborne commerce from the nineteenth century to the present day and an examination of current strategic issues.
Long-Term Outlook for the U. S. Navy's Fleet
Discusses the challenges that the Navy is facing in its plans for building its future fleet. This testimony examined these matters: (1) the Navy¿s draft shipbuilding plan for fiscal year 2011; (2) the effect that replacing Ohio class submarines with a new class of submarines will have on the Navy¿s shipbuilding program; and (3) the number of ships that may be needed to support ballistic missile defense from the sea. Before discussing those issues, the author briefly recaps an analysis of the 2009 shipbuilding plan as a point of departure for examining the draft 2011 plan. Charts and tables.
Software Cost Estimation and Sizing Methods
Recommends an approach to improving the utility and accuracy of software cost estimates by exposing uncertainty (in understanding the project) and reducing the risks associated with developing the estimates. The approach focuses on characteristics of the estimation process (such as which methods and models are most appropriate for a given situation) and the nature of the data used (such as software size), describing symptoms and warning signs of risk in each factor, and risk-mitigation strategies.
Defense Management Reform
Pentagon spending has been the target of decades of criticism and reform efforts. Billions of dollars are spent on weapons programs that are later abandoned. State-of-the-art data centers are underutilized and overstaffed. New business systems are built at great expense but fail to meet the needs of their users. Every Secretary of Defense for the last five Administrations has made it a priority to address perceived bloat and inefficiency by making management reform a major priority. The congressional defense committees have been just as active, enacting hundreds of legislative provisions. Yet few of these initiatives produce significant results, and the Pentagon appears to go on, as wasteful as ever. In this book, Peter Levine addresses why, despite a long history of attempted reform, the Pentagon continues to struggle to reduce waste and inefficiency. The heart of Defense Management Reform is three case studies covering civilian personnel, acquisitions, and financial management. Narrated with the insight of an insider, the result is a clear understanding of what went wrong in the past and a set of concrete guidelines to plot a better future.
Budget Estimating Relationships for Depot-level Reparables in the Air Force Flying Hour Program
Budget estimating relationships (BERs) for flying depot-level reparables (DLRs) explain the direct effect of specified variables on obligated funds associated with spare parts that directly support the U.S. Air Force (USAF) Flying Hour Program. In FY02, net sales of DLRs to Air Force commands hit historic highs. To provide the Air Force Cost Analysis Improvement Group with a tool to better understand the commands-- budgetary submissions, we develop several explanatory BERs to understand why flying DLRs are at their particular levels. Using longitudinal regression statistical methods, we explain the historical net sales of flying DLRs using estimating models that relate net sales to the contemporaneous values of aircraft characteristics, operational tempo, and time-related variables. This is but one part of a larger project to develop better estimating methods for use by the acquisition community and to examine the impact of Air Force and DoD policies on weapon system costs. The findings will also be of interest to those in the national security community who are involved in analyzing alternative military postures, and to members of the aircraft industry's analytical community.
Impossible Certainty
This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives."
