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A Growth-Friendly Path for Building Fiscal Buffers in the Caucuses and Central Asia
Since 2014, large and persistent external shocks have hit the CCA region, particularly a slump in global commodity prices and slower growth in its key economic partners. Fiscal accommodation, along with currency adjustment, has helped the CCA mitigate the impact of the external shocks. However, amid weakening revenues, increased public spending has widened budget deficits, weakened external balances, and increased public debts. Fiscal policy and strengthening fiscal frameworks must play a central role in helping build buffers and ensuring debt sustainability while supporting growth. This requires (1) tightening fiscal policies to reduce deficits to help restore external balance and fiscal sustainability, (2) strengthening tax systems and tax collection and tilting expenditure toward a more productive and growth-enhancing composition, and (3) implementing public financial management reforms and strengthening fiscal institutions, including through fiscal rules.
Sustaining more Inclusive Growth in the Republic of Congo
The Republic of Congo has seen dramatic improvement in its debt situation since 2010, following debt relief through the IMF and World Bank Heavily Indebted Poor Countries/Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. Large oil revenues have allowed the country to boost spending and increase foreign exchange reserves. Yet poverty and inequality remain comparatively high. This paper examines Congo’s challenge to manage its natural resource revenue and attain sustained inclusive growth.
Make Investment Scaling-Up Work in Benin
This paper conducts a systematic growth and fiscal analysis to determine: (1) the growth potential of Benin’s ambitious scaling-up of investment, and (2) how the government can generate the necessary fiscal space needed to increase investment without jeopardizing Benin’s solid macroeconomic performance.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recovered relative to 2016, but the momentum is weak and per capita incomes are expected to barely increase. Further, vulnerabilities have risen in many countries, adding to the urgency of implementing the fiscal consolidations planned in most countries and with stepped up efforts to strengthen growth.
Burkina Faso
This Selected Issues paper examines the impact of scaled-up public investment in Burkina Faso. The results suggest that “big-push” investment efforts, while designed to accelerate growth, are likely to run up against significant absorption-capacity constraints. These constraints will diminish the efficiency of investment spending and result in lower public capital accumulation and productivity growth than under a more measured approach. The empirical evidence from the experience of many countries also suggests that the results of aggressive scaling-up initiatives are mixed.
Republic of Kazakhstan
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights growth in Kazakhstan expected to strengthen to 2.5 percent in 2017 after a slowdown in 2016, reflecting higher oil production and the effect of substantial fiscal stimulus spending. The sharp exchange rate depreciation in late 2015 and early 2016 triggered a surge in consumer prices, but inflation has come down to levels consistent with the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s target range. The medium-term outlook has improved; growth in the non-oil sector is expected to pick up gradually to 4 percent, benefiting from structural reforms and a resumption of bank lending. Uncertainty is high, however, because the economy remains vulnerable to commodity price swings and especially to a sustained decline in oil prices.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa
The sharp decline in oil and other commodity prices have adversely impacted sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, the region is projected to register another year of solid economic performance. In South Africa, however, growth is expected to remain lackluster, while in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone the Ebola outbreak continues to exact a heavy economic and social toll. This report also considers how sub-Saharan Africa can harness the demographic dividend from an unprecedented increase in the working age population, as well as the strength of the region's integration into global value chains.
IMF Research Bulletin, December 2015
The December issue of the Research Bulletin looks at “Seven Questions about Climate Change” (Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto). The Research Summaries review “Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth” (Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Frederik Toscani) and “Malaysia: Achieving High-Income Status through Resilience and Inclusive Growth” (Alex Mourmouras and Naimh Sheridan). The issue also includes regular updates on new IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, IMF books, and the IMF Economic Review.
Republic of Congo
Republic of Congo: Selected Issues
