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Assessing Fiscal Stress
This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal stress periods, covering public debt default as well as near-default events. The fiscal stress index depends on a parsimonious set of fiscal indicators, aggregated using the approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998). The index is used to assess the build up of fiscal stress over time since the mid-1990s in advanced and emering economies. Fiscal stress has increased recently to record-high levels in advanced countries, reflecting raising solvency risks and financing needs. In emerging economies, risks are lower than in mature economies owing to sounder fiscal fundamentals, but fiscal stress remains higher than before the crisis.
Fiscal Policy During Absorption Cycles
Domestic absorption cycles are relevant in assessment and design of fiscal policies. Our cross-country analysis covers 59 advanced and emerging countries for the 1990-2009 period. We show that ignoring domestic absorption cycles leads to biased fiscal stance indicators, for both advanced and emerging economies, by up to 1.5 percent of GDP. The estimates of fiscal policy reaction functions indicate that absorption booms are associated with pro-cyclical fiscal policy. We tackle the endogeneity problem in reactions functions through stripping the cyclical component of the fiscal aggregates. We also find that simple filtering methods in the computation of absorption gaps perform as better as indirect methods of estimating trade balance gaps and stripping of output gaps.
When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances
Technical Notes and Manuals are produced by IMF departments to expand the dissemination of their technical assistance advice. These papers present general advice and guidance, drawn in part from unpublished technical assistance reports, to a broader audience. This new series was launched in August 2009.
Environmental Performance Review
This third EPR of Romania takes stock of progress made by the country in the management of its environment since its second review in 2012 and assesses the implementation of the recommendations of the previous EPR. The review covers legal and policy frameworks and compliance assurance mechanisms. It also focuses on greening the economy, environmental monitoring, public participation, and education for sustainable development. It includes a substantive analysis of the country's participation in and commitments to international agreements, as well as its climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. Furthermore, the EPR addresses issues of specific importance to Romania related to air pro...
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s vulnerability at the outset of the global crisis was its large current account deficit in the context of the exchange rate peg to the euro. At the same time, it benefited from a small fiscal deficit, modest public debt, and significant international reserve buffers. Executive Directors have praised the Macedonian authorities for the conduct of macroeconomic policies, which contributed to a modest downturn in Macedonia’s economy relative to other countries in the region.
Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues
Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators, attempts to determine the likely nature (temporary versus structural) of an LMA episode, and analyzes potential implications of such an assessment on the required degree of adjustment to restore market access. Finally, it highlights the possible application of the methodological framework for identifying emerging risks to market access.
Trade and Civilisation
Provides the first global analysis of the relationship between trade and civilisation from the beginning of civilisation until the modern era.
Open Your Bible - Bible Study Book
Are you longing to hear from God, aching to know who He really is? The beautiful truth is this—we can encounter the living God today and every day in the pages of His Word. Whether you are a seasoned Bible reader or struggle to keep up with studying Scripture, Open Your Bible will leave you with a greater appreciation for the Word of God, a deeper understanding of its authority, and a stronger desire to know the Bible inside and out. Using powerful storytelling, real-life examples, and scripture itself, Open Your Bible will quench a thirst you might not even know you have, one that can only be satisfied by God's Word.
The Compilation of First State Reports on the Implementation of the European Social Charter
Opening of the seminar.
Ontario reports
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