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In Search of Coincident and Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Argentina
Time series on economic activity in developing countries, in particular real GDP, are reported with important lags. Therefore, it is useful to construct indicators that coincide or lead the actual direction and level of economic activity. A general methodology to construct these indicators is proposed and adapted for Argentina. Three coincident indicators could be constructed, but no reliable leading indicator could be found. From an econometric standpoint, the coincident indicators produce satisfactory point estimates of real GDP. The series that enter the indicator are broadly consistent with what many economists believe is the main source of real GDP fluctuations in Argentina: shocks to the capital account of the balance of payments. This enhances the confidence in the econometric results.
Public Procurement in South Africa
The 2015 Supply Chain Management Review lays out a sound agenda for procurement reform. The ongoing work on a new procurement bill and regulations are an important opportunity to spearhead procurement reform and step-up implementation. Several important reform aspects worth prioritizing are the simplification and standardization of aprocurement procedures, the standardization of transparency requirements through the adoption of the Open Contracting Data Standards, transitioning to a new e-procurement system that is linked to the government’s integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) and other systems, making preferential procurement more cost effective and goal oriented, and strengthening staff capacity to carry out procurement. Opportunities to centralize procurement should be further explored to leverage and develop limited capacity.
New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies
This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal adjustment and real GDP growth in a panel of 26 transition economies during 1992-2001. Unlike most previous studies using cross-country regressions, the paper finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between fiscal adjustment and growth that is robust to different model specifications and estimation methods. The paper also presents country experiences to delve deeper into the mechanisms that may underlie this statistical relationship.
Structural Balance Targeting and Output Gap Uncertainty
Potential output estimation plays a crucial role in conducting fiscal policy based on structural balances. Difficulties in estimating potential output could lead to an erroneous policy stance with a consequent impact on growth. This paper analyzes historical data on revisions of actual and potential growth in the European Union and the implication of these revisions for the measurement of fiscal effort using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB). It finds that revisions in output gap estimates were large, at almost 11⁄2 percent of potential GDP on average. Revisions in potential GDP also contributed significantly to revisions in the estimated CAPB, especially during the crisis years. Given these findings and historical correlations, it proposes an indicative rule of thumb for reducing errors in the measurement of fiscal effort by factoring in that about 30 percent of revisions in actual growth capture changes in potential growth. In other words, the standard advice of “letting automatic stabilizers operate fully” in response to a positive/negative growth shocks likely implies a strengthening/weakening of the structural position.
India’s Experience with Fiscal Rules: An Evaluation and The Way Forward
This paper examines India's experience with fiscal rules with a view to inform the design of a possible successor fiscal framework to the FRBMA. Among several proposals to strengthen the FRBMA, a framework that focuses medium-term fiscal policy on debt sustainability by the use of a medium term debt target, and annual nominal expenditure growth rules is proposed. This approach tackles the deficit bias at its core and enables countercyclical fiscal policy through automatic stabilizers. Numerical targets should be supported by structural reform measures for both revenues and expenditures, while the coverage of the fiscal rules should be expanded.
The Driving Force behind the Boom and Bust in Construction in Europe
This paper studies the factors behind pro-cyclical but widely varying construction shares (as a percent of GDP) across countries, with a strong focus on European countries. Using a dataset covering 48 countries (including advanced and emerging economies within and outside Europe) for 1990-2011, we find that country’s geography, demographics, and economic conditions are the key determinants of a norm around which actual construction shares revolve in a simple AR(1) and error-correction process. The empirical results show that in many European countries, construction shares overshoot relative to their norms before the recent global crisis, but they have fallen significantly since the crisis. Nevertheless, there is still room for further adjustment in construction shares in some countries which may weigh on economic recovery.
Cyprus
This paper discusses Cyprus’ First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. The program is on track, and ownership by the authorities has improved. Fiscal targets were met with a comfortable margin. All structural benchmarks were also observed, albeit some with a brief delay. The authorities have made important strides to complete the bank resolution process, publish a roadmap to gradually ease payment restrictions, and finalize a restructuring strategy for the cooperative credit sector. However, much remains to be done to fully implement the financial sector restructuring strategy and restore confidence in the system.
Perfect Chemistry
From the New York Times bestselling author Simone Elkeles comes an epic love story like no other . . . First in the gripping PERFECT CHEMISTRY series, this is the next addictive read for fans of Anna Todd's AFTER series, and Caroline Kepnes's YOU. When Brittany Ellis walks into chemistry class on the first day of senior year, she has no clue that her carefully created 'perfect' life is about to unravel before her eyes. Forced to be lab partners with Alex Fuentes, a gang member from the other side of town, Brittany finds herself having to protect everything she's worked so hard for – her flawless reputation, her relationship with her boyfriend and, most importantly, the secret that her home...
South Africa
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with South Africa discusses that subdued private investment and exports, and increased uncertainty have depressed growth and worsened social indicators. State-owned enterprises’ (SOEs) risks are materializing, triggering government bailouts of Eskom and administrative intervention in other entities. High fiscal deficits have boosted debt. Nonresident investors are shedding equities and local currency bonds but showing appetite for foreign currency sovereign bonds amid supportive global financing conditions. The external position is moderately weaker than implied by fundamentals and desirable policies. Inflation has slowed to around the mid-point of the tar...
Helping Countries Develop
Sets out principles for conducting fiscal policy in developing countries. Examines the role of public spending in meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Discusses the determinants of fiscal sustainability, the effectiveness of social spending, the limits to absorptive capacity, the volatility of aid flows and their impact on dependency, and a range of other contentious issues.
