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Experience with Large Fiscal Adjustments
When policymakers have little option but to consider a sizable fiscal adjustment, they are confronted by the following questions: Can a large fiscal adjustment be implemented succesfully? How is a large adjustment best designed and implemented? What will be its impact on the economy? This Occasional Paper addresses these questions by describing the experience of countries that have undertaken large fiscal adjustments in the last three decades. It provides operational guidance to policymakers by identifying preconditions, common policy approaches, and institutional arrangements underlying successful and unsuccessful adjustment episodes.
Persistence in the Variability of Daily Exchange Rates
Rational speculation in foreign exchange trading is often assumed to dampen exchange rate fluctuations by bringing the market back to fundamentals. Nevertheless, information congestion provides incentives for traders to follow positive feedback strategies which result in persistent and volatile exchange rate behavior by magnifying the impact of exogenous shocks. Empirical evidence is presented which is consistent with such autocatalytic effects.
Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries
Low-income countries routinely experience exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade, export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—that contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and consumption compared with other countries. Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries presents the findings of an analysis of a range of external shocks faced by these countries, beginning with a discussion of the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic growth, volatility, and welfare. Although sound macroeconomic and prudential policy frameworks are the first line of defense for limiting vulnerability, international reserves constitute the main form of self-insurance against such shocks. The evidence suggests that low-income countries with reserve coverage above three months of imports were better able to smooth consumption and absorption in the face of external shocks compared with those with lower reserve holdings. The analysis also points to the importance of country characteristics and vulnerabilities in assessing reserve adequacy.
Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries
Low-income countries routinely experience exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade, export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—that contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and consumption compared with other countries. Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries presents the findings of an analysis of a range of external shocks faced by these countries, beginning with a discussion of the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic growth, volatility, and welfare. Although sound macroeconomic and prudential policy frameworks are the first line of defense for limiting vulnerability, international reserves constitute the main form of self-insurance against such shocks. The evidence suggests that low-income countries with reserve coverage above three months of imports were better able to smooth consumption and absorption in the face of external shocks compared with those with lower reserve holdings. The analysis also points to the importance of country characteristics and vulnerabilities in assessing reserve adequacy.
Experience with Large Fiscal Adjustments
When policymakers have little option but to consider a sizable fiscal adjustment, they are confronted by the following questions: Can a large fiscal adjustment be implemented succesfully? How is a large adjustment best designed and implemented? What will be its impact on the economy? This Occasional Paper addresses these questions by describing the experience of countries that have undertaken large fiscal adjustments in the last three decades. It provides operational guidance to policymakers by identifying preconditions, common policy approaches, and institutional arrangements underlying successful and unsuccessful adjustment episodes.
The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid
This study analyzes key issues associated with large increases in aid, including absorptive capacity, Dutch disease, and inflation. The authors develop a framework that emphasizes the different roles of monetary and fiscal policy and apply it to the recent experience of five countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda. These countries have often found it difficult to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy in the face of conflicting objectives, notably to spend the aid money on domestic goods and to avoid excessive exchange rate appreciation.
Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Debt Sustainability
"In the difficult circumstances where a sovereign debt restructuring becomes unavoidable, restoring the country's debt to a sustainable path is key to ensuring a credible and durable exit from the crisis. In recent years, a number of countries -- including Argentina, the Dominican Reputlic, Ecuador, Moldova, Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine, and Uruguay -- have had to restructure their sovereign liabilities, either following a default, or preemptively to avoid a default. This study takes stock of these countries' experiences with debt-restructuring operations, with a view to assessing the outcomes and whether debt sustainability has been restored. The emphasis of the study is on sovereign debt owed to private creditors, and the analysis is based on information available as of late 2005..." -- Preface, p. v.
Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances
Given the large size of aggregate remittance flows (billions of dollars annually), they should be expected to have significant macroeconomic effects on the economies that receive them. This paper directly addresses the two main issues of interest to policymakers with regard to remittances--how to manage their macroeconomic effects, and how to harness their development potential--by reporting the results of the first global study of the comprehensive macroeconomic effects of remittances on recipient economies. In broad terms, the findings of this paper tend to confirm the main benefit cited in the microeconomic literature: remittances improve households' welfare by lifting families out of pov...
Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices
The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
