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Getting to Know GMMET: The Global Macroeconomic Model for the Energy Transition
This paper presents GMMET, the Global Macroeconomic Model for the Energy Transition, and provides documentation of the model structure, data sources and model properties. GMMET is a large-scale, dynamic, non-linear, microfounded multicountry model whose purpose is to analyze the short- and medium-term macroeconomic impact of curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The model provides a detailed description of GHG-emitting activities (related to both fossil fuel and non-fossil-fuel processes) and their interaction with the rest of the economy. To better capture real world obstacles of the energy transition, GMMET features a granular modelling of electricity generation (capturing the intermittency of renewables), transportation (capturing network externalities between charging stations and electric vehicle adoption), and fossil fuel mining (replicating estimated supply elasticities at various time horizons). The model also features a rich set of policy tools for the energy transition, including taxation of GHG emissions, various subsidies, and regulations.
From HydroCarbon to Hightech
Qatar’s state-led, hydrocarbon intensive growth model has delivered rapid growth and substantial improvements in living standards over the past several decades. Guided by the National Vision 2030, an economic transformation is underway toward a more dynamic, diversified, knowledge-based, sustainable, and private sector-led growth model. As Qatar is finalizing its Third National Development Strategy to make the final leap toward Vision 2030, this paper aims to identify key structural reforms needed, quantify their potential impact on the economy, and shed light on the design of a comprehensive reform agenda ahead. The paper finds that labor market reforms could bring substantial benefits, particularly reforms related to increasing the share of skilled foreign workers. Certain reforms to further improve the business environment, such as improving access to finance, could also have large growth impact. A comprehensive, well-integrated, and properly sequenced reform package to exploit complementarities across reforms could boost Qatar’s potential growth significantly.
Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World
This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Australia’s Fiscal Framework: Revisiting Options for a Fiscal Anchor
This paper revisits options for fiscal anchors in Australia against the backdrop of a medium-term budget balance anchor that has led to larger than expected upward drift in the net debt to GDP ratio since the end of the mining investment boom. The IMF’s G20MOD model is used to compare the budget balance anchor with a long-term debt anchor. Using model simulations evaluated against objective macro stabilization-debt control criteria under three likely scenarios for the Australian economy, the latter is found to perform at least as well as the former. The paper also considers the operationalization of a long-term debt anchor utilizing a combination of fiscal rules which includes expenditure restrictions and a flexible time horizon for convergence, aiming at encouraging countercyclical fiscal policy and minimizing the cost in terms of real GDP foregone in the medium term under fiscal consolidation.
The Price of De-Risking Reshoring, Friend-Shoring, and Quality Downgrading
This paper estimates the costs of ‘de-risking’ scenarios between China and OECD members at the aggregate and sectoral levels. Aggregate large-scale de-risking – reshoring by increasing reliance on domestic production and friend-shoring by reducing imports from specific foreign countries – is quantified with the IMF’s GIMF model, suggesting significant permanent effects on the global economy. Returning integration to 2000 levels translates into long-term global GDP losses of 4.5 percent under reshoring and as much as 1.8 percent under friend-shoring. Friend-shoring does not necessarily deliver a boon to third countries as trade diversion benefits might be largely offset by contracti...
Australia's Linkages with China: Prospects and Ramifications of China's Economic Transition
China and Australia have increasingly strong links, especially through trade. These are driven by demand from China for Australian commodities (coal and iron ore) and services (tourism and education). These links are influenced by China’s transition to a services-driven, consumer-led economy. Using ANZIMF, the Australia-New Zealand Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model, three risks (both upside and downside) to China during this transition process are considered, focusing on their spillovers to Australia. One simple takeaway is central to each risk – while the real GDP response to shocks in Australia typically is small, responses in demand components or sectors are usually much larger– along with three further takeaways, all of which help in the analysis of Australia in relation to any risk emanating from China.
A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis
This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models.
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF)
This working paper presents a comprehensive overview of the theoretical structure of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model that is used by the IMF for a variety of tasks including policy analysis, risk analysis, and surveillance.
Sizing Up the Effects of Technological Decoupling
This paper proposes channels through which technological decoupling can affect global growth, and embeds these different layers in a global dynamic macroeconomic model. Multiple scenarios are considered that differ along two dimensions: (i) the coalition of countries (hubs) that initiate the decoupling, and (ii) whether non-hub countries are also forced to decouple via ‘preferential attachment’ – i.e. by aligning themselves with the hub they trade most with. All global technology hubs lose across scenarios, and losses are largest under preferential attachment. Smaller countries with relations that straddle multiple hubs generally lose, whereas those whose trade is heavily concentrated with one hub may gain due to reduced competition under some scenarios. Technological fragmentation can lead to losses in the order of 5 percent of GDP for many economies.
Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.
