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Labor Market Performance in Transition
More than a decade after the start of the transition process, unemployment rates remain in the double digits in a number of Central and Eastern European countries. That unemployment rates have failed to decline, even in countries experiencing good growth, is puzzling. In this paper the authors examine three interrelated questions: How has the transition from central planning to market economies affected labor market performance? How have labor market institutions and policies influenced developments? Why have regional differences in unemployment persisted? The authors take an eclectic methodological approach: construction of a new data set and a simple analytical model; econometric estimation; and case studies. They find that faster-performing countries have better unemployment records; that labor market policies have some, but not dominant, influence over labor market outcomes; that policies not typically viewed as labor market policies can nevertheless significantly affect labor markets; and that market processes cannot be relied on to eliminate regional differences in unemployment.
Feeling The Elephant’s Weight
This paper analyzes the impact of political instability in Côte d’Ivoire on WAEMU trade over 1990-2007, applying panel econometric techniques to a gravity model of trade within WAEMU and between WAEMU and the rest of the world. The paper finds that intra-regional trade represents a small share of total WAEMU trade and that Côte d’Ivoire accounts for around half of that total, highlighting the importance of this country for the region. The political instability in Côte d’Ivoire has led to an increase in transaction costs, making it relatively more costly for member countries to trade with each other than with the rest of world. Instability has also resulted in a diversion of trade away from Côte d’Ivoire in favor of other countries equipped with ports and in a reduction of WAEMU overall potential trade. For Côte d’Ivoire alone, lost trade is estimated at around 40 percent of its potential trade with the WAEMU in the absence of instability. With a normalization in Côte d’Ivoire, enhanced security and further integration would be essential to achieve higher levels of trade and growth in the WAEMU region.
Energy Subsidy Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa
The reform of energy subsidies is an important but challenging issue for sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. There is a relatively large theoretical and empirical literature on this issue. While this paper relies on that literature, too, it tailors its discussion to SSA countries to respond to the following questions: Why it is important to reduce energy subsidies? What are the difficulties involved in energy subsidy reform? How best can a subsidy reform be implemented? This paper uses various sources of information on SSA countries: quantitative assessments, surveys, and individual (but standardized) case studies.
Will You Buy My Peg? the Credibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime As a Determinant of Bilateral Trade
This paper examines the relationship between fixed exchange rate arrangements and trade using a gravity model of international trade together with bilateral trade data from 24 countries from the Caribbean and Latin America for the period 1960-2001. The analysis indicates that a credible fixed peg has a positive impact on the value of bilateral trade. Moreover, the positive impact on trade is more pronounced with a stricter definition of the fixed peg or a longer duration of the peg. This supports the argument that the credibility of an exchange rate peg is an important element to determine bilateral trade. There is, however, no evidence to suggest that a currency union provides additional benefits.
Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of its Parts? Strengthening Caribbean Regional Integration
Deeper economic integration within the Caribbean has been a regional policy priority since the establishment of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the decision to create the Caribbean Single Market and Economy (CSME). Implementation of integration initiatives has, however, been slow, despite the stated commitment of political leaders. The “implementation deficit” has led to skepticism about completing the CSME and controversy regarding its benefits. This paper analyzes how Caribbean integration has evolved, discusses the obstacles to progress, and explores the potential benefits from greater integration. It argues that further economic integration through liberalization of trade and l...
Réforme des subventions énergétiques en Afrique subsaharienne
La réforme des subventions énergétiques est un problème important et difficile pour les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne. Un nombre relativement important d’études théoriques et empiriques ont été consacrées à cette question. Si ce rapport s’inspire de ces études, il examine toutefois plus précisément la situation des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne de manière à répondre aux questions suivantes: pourquoi est-il important de réduire les subventions énergétiques? Quelles sont les difficultés que pose la réforme des subventions énergétiques? Quel est le meilleur moyen de procéder à une telle réforme? Ce rapport se fonde sur diverses sources d’information sur les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne et notamment des évaluations quantitatives, des enquêtes et des études de cas particulières (mais standardisées).
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 51, No. 1
This first issue of Volume 51 for 2004 includes a new paper by Peter B. Clark and Jacques J. Polak, along with a tribute from the Editor to Mr. Polak in honor of his 90th birthday. This issue also launches a new featured section, "Data Issues," which will be devoted in future issues to on-going discussions of the latest in econometric and statistical tools for economists, data puzzles, and other related topics of interest to researchers.
Economic and Monetary Integration and the Aggregate Demand for Money in the EMS
This study shows that the aggregate demand for M1 in the group of countries participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System can be expressed as a stable function of ERM-wide income, inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate of the European Currency Unit (ECU) vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. A notable feature of the model is the rapid elimination of monetary disequilibria, in contrast with most single-country estimates which tend to find implausibly slow adjustment. These results are suggestive: if robust, they would indicate that, even at the present stage of economic and monetary integration, a European central bank could, in principle, implement monetary control more effectively than the individual national central banks.
