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Post-Bubble Blues
What caused Asia's largest economy, once the envy of the world, to lag behind many of the other industrial countries? And why did it take so long for Japan to recover from the bursting of its asset price bubble of the late 1980s? In this volume, a team from the International Monetary Fund examines the causes of the lingering economic problems of Japan, the crisis in its banking system, the reasons for weak business investment, and the government's efforts to kick-start the economy through a series of stimulus packages. This book presents a compelling story about Japan's economy. Its message - that banking reform and corporate restructuring are central to any sustained revival of the economy- is backed up through detailed background research. This research provided the analytical framework for the IMF's policy advice during a period of rapid change--a period during which macroeconomic policymaking moved into uncharted territory. The research papers were prepared by members of the Japan team in the IMF during 1998 and the first half of 1999.
Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database
This paper introduces a new comprehensive database of macroprudential policies, which combines information from various sources and covers 134 countries from January 1990 to December 2016. Using these data, we first confirm that loan-targeted instruments have a significant impact on household credit, and a milder, dampening effect on consumption. Next, we exploit novel numerical information on loan-to-value (LTV) limits using a propensity-score-based method to address endogeneity concerns. The results point to economically significant and nonlinear effects, with a declining impact for larger tightening measures. Moreover, the initial LTV level appears to matter; when LTV limits are already tight, the effects of additional tightening on credit is dampened while those on consumption are strengthened.
Five Years After
The proximity of the European Union, the prospect of membership, and actual entry by the New Member States (NMS) increased economic and financial integration in the region, leading to fast economic growth based on sizeable capital inflows. EU membership helped in developing sound macroeconomic and financial stability frameworks in the NMS. However, these frameworks remain work in progress and as such could not safeguard against private sector exuberance or risky policies, especially in the face of an unprecedented global financial crisis. Hence, more prudent policies and further strengthening of policy frameworks, especially with respect to financial stability, seem warranted.
Turks and Caicos Islands
This paper discusses key findings and recommendations made in Financial System Stability Assessment for Turks and Caicos Islands. Although the financial oversight framework has significantly improved, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) should strive for further progress. Major advances have been made regarding the operational independence of the FSC and staffing. Nonetheless, the outdated Banking Ordinance and Insurance Ordinance need urgent overhaul. The functioning of the FSC should be strengthened by enhancing Board oversight, filling key positions at Board and senior management levels, strengthening communication and consultation with the industry, and improving the supervision and risk assessment capacities of FSC staff.
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 48, No. 3
This paper analyzes the financial implications of the 1956 crisis of nationalization of the Suez Canal by Egypt. It examines the regional distribution of public employment in Italy. The paper quantifies the impact of changes in the U.S. monetary policy on sovereign bond spreads in emerging market countries. Specifically, the paper explores empirically how country risk, as proxied by sovereign bond spreads, is influenced by U.S. monetary policy, country-specific fundamentals, and conditions in global capital markets. Modeling the IMF’s statistical discrepancy in the global current account is also discussed.
Norway
This paper discusses key findings and recommendations of the Financial System Stability Assessment for Norway. Norway’s financial system coped well with the global financial crisis and has further increased buffers to deal with potential shocks, but significant financial imbalances have also built up since then. Stress tests suggest that under severe macroeconomic shocks, banks and life insurers could face important but manageable capital shortfalls. The authorities have taken significant measures to improve the oversight framework, but further strengthening is needed. The regulatory and supervisory framework is generally good, but some weaknesses need to be addressed.
United Republic of Tanzania
Tanzania’s bank-dominated financial sector is small, concentrated, and at a relatively nascent stage of development. Financial services provision is dominated by commercial banks, with the ten largest institutions being preeminent in terms of mobilizing savings and intermediating credit. Medium-to-small banks rely systematically more on costlier, short-term, interbank financing and institutional deposits and have markedly higher operating costs. These structural features underpin financial stability challenges which are significant. Bank asset quality has deteriorated sharply in recent years, and under-provisioning is significant, belying the apparently comfortable capital cushions. Credit growth has fallen precipitously, corporate debt loads have risen, and their cash flows are weak. Dollarization of bank balance-sheets raises the possibility of solvency stress under shocks being exacerbated by funding liquidity pressures, especially at smaller banks.
Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic
This paper finds that the neutral interest rate has been on a downward trajectory in Morocco since the global financial crisis and may have fallen in the wake of the pandemic. In that context, monetary policy transmission to output and prices appears relatively muted given limited exchange rate flexibility until recently. Also, monetary policy transmission to some market rates has somewhat weakened in the wake of the pandemic. A lower natural rate and low policy rates raise the question of whether further rate reductions would impair the banking system. We find that the sensitivity of cash demand to deposit rates is low, implying limited risks that banks would lose funding with further reductions. A reliance on checking and savings accounts for funding may impair monetary pass-through, however. If monetary policy reaches its effective lower bound, limited and credible recourse to an asset purchase program could usefully complement conventional measures and strengthen monetary policy transmission under an inflation-targeting regime with a flexible exchange rate.
Monetary Policy in Dollarized Economies
Dollarization - the holding by residents of a substantial portion of their assets in foreign-currency-denominated assets- is a common feature of developing and transition economies, and therefore typical of many countries with IMF - supported adjustment programs. This paper analyzes policy issues that arise-and various monetary strategies that may be pursued- when the monetary sector is dollarized, and it considers the implications that dollarization has for the design of IMF programs.
Republic of Moldova
Moldova has made some important advances since the 2008 FSAP Update. On the positive side, inflation has been brought down to single digits, the payment system has been upgraded, and important enhancements have been made to financial sector regulation and supervision. However, risks to banking sector stability have become severe. Large credit concentration and concealed connected lending, questionable cross-border exposures, and important data gaps mean that regulatory data likely significantly understate the system’s vulnerability. Non-transparent ownership, weak governance, connected lending and weaknesses in regulatory powers and enforcement further exacerbate these risks and could limit the scope for an effective policy response to shocks. Governance structures, internal oversight processes, and risk management practices are poorly developed. In some cases, cross-border exposures are substantial and the pattern of some (particularly cross-border) financial transactions suggest a serious risk of money laundering.
