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Drift in Producer Price Indexes for the Former Soviet Union (FSU) Countries
The purpose of this paper is to show that, under the price fluctuations that characterize most transition economies, the commonly used chain index derived from the published month-to-month price change of the PPI in some cases dramatically overstates the rate of price inflation. The analysis is based in part on a seminal paper by Szulc, who studies the problem of drift for a wide class of index formulae, and in part on the observations of price movements made by the Fund’s missions. Greatest during the year 1992, the drift declines with slower rates of inflation and, possibly, with changing patterns of price increases, but is still important for countries such as Russia, where monthly inflation continues to run well into the double digits.
Methodologies of Price Indices in Transition Countries
Since late 1991, the IMF Statistics Department has conducted a program of technical assistance on consumer and producer price measurement and index compilation for the countries that have emerged from the former Soviet Union. These are countries whose economies are in various states of transition from centrally planned to market organization, and face special difficulties in developing price indices meeting international methodological guidelines for use in setting and monitoring the progress of macroeconomic policy. This paper describes and summarizes the findings of this technical assistance work with transition economies over the past four years, and the methodology developed by Fund experts to adapt international guidelines to the prevailing economic conditions. The paper catalogs the measurement problems and issues for compiling consumer and producer price indices in the transition context, and also comments on the use of these price series in compiling constant price national accounts.
Balance of Payments Compilation Guide
A companion document to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, the Balance of Payments Compilation Guide shows how the conceptual framework described in the Manual may be implemented in practice. The primary purpose of the Guide is to provide practical guidance for using sources and methods to compile statistics on the balance of payments and the international investment position. the Guide is designed to assist balance of payments compilers and statisticians in understanding the relative strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. The material reflects the emergence of new data sources and adaptations in the application of statistical methodologies to changing circumstances. Discussed in the Guide are all of the tasks that a BOP compiler normally performs. Appendices contain a set of model BOP questionnaires and a set of model BOP publication tables. Relationships between the balance of payments statistics and relevant aspects of national accounts are covered as well.
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 51, No. 1
This first issue of Volume 51 for 2004 includes a new paper by Peter B. Clark and Jacques J. Polak, along with a tribute from the Editor to Mr. Polak in honor of his 90th birthday. This issue also launches a new featured section, "Data Issues," which will be devoted in future issues to on-going discussions of the latest in econometric and statistical tools for economists, data puzzles, and other related topics of interest to researchers.
Export and Import Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice
A joint production by six international organizations, this manual explores the conceptual and theoretical issues that national statistical offices should consider in the daily compilation of export and import price indices. Intended for use by both ...
International Merchandise Trade Statistics
This publication contains updated recommendations on methodology for compiling international merchandise trade statistics adopted by the United Nations Statistical Commission in March 1997. These recommendations are an essential references for trade statistics analysis and understanding. They take into account new developments in international trade, national practices of data compilation, new international agreements regarding customs procedures, and previously adopted revisions of methodology of national accounting and balance of payments statistics. They address basic issues such as coverage of statistics and time of recording, trade system, commodity classifications, valuation, quantity measurement, partner country, and reporting and dissemination. The publication also contains detailed lists of goods to be included and excluded from imports and exports; two tables which make it possible to determine, at a glance, how various categories of goods are treated in both the general and the special trade systems; and linkages between statistical concepts and international conventions regarding trade matters.
Price Level Measurement
Among the theoretical issues covered in this volume are the "economic" and the "axiomatic" or "test" approaches to the problem of constructing and choosing among alternative cost-of-living index formulas; "bounds" and "econometric" alternatives for developing empirically computable approximations of theoretically desirable indexes; recommendations concerning the incorporation of leisure time in measures of the cost-of-living; and the formulation of social and group cost-of-living indexes. The Jorgenson-Slesnick paper also presents a far-reaching empirical study of price changes in the U.S. The importance of this book to those with an interest in economic theory is obvious. However, this book also holds out the opportunity and challenge to applied researchers to gain a deeper understanding of the index numbers of which they make daily use.
A Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services
The Manual sets out an internationally agreed framework for the compilation and reporting of statistics on international trade in services in the broad sense. It addresses the growing need, including in international trade negotiations and agreements, for more detailed, comparable, and comprehensive statistics on this type of trade in its various forms. The recommendations will enable countries to progressively expand and structure the information they compile in an internationally comparable way. The Manual conforms with and explicitly relates to the System of National Accounts 1993 and the fifth edition of the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual. It is published jointly by the United Nations, European Union, IMF, OECD, UNCTAD, and World Trade Organization.
