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Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New Eu Member States
The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions are expected to continue to experience appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt. Our estimates point to somewhat larger disequilibria than those of IMF country teams, however, any estimates of equilibrium exchange rates are subject to sizable uncertainty.
Writing Clearly
The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written communication as clear about 95 percent of instances, which is comparable to, or even better than, other central banks for which a similar analysis is available. We also find that the additional information contained in the ECB's Monthly Bulletins helps to improve communication clarity compared to ECB's press releases. In particular, the Bulletins contain useful clarifying information on individual inflation factors and the overall forecast risk; in contrast, the bulletin's communication on monetary shocks has a negative, albeit small, impact on clarity.
Macroeconomic Policies
Paper discusses reform process in the Czech Republic (and former Czechoslovakia), which after some preparations in 1990 started in 1991 has been implemented along two major reform lines: - microeconomic restructuring including privatization, liberalization of prices and markets, and - creation of a market-typed institutional framework with the stress put on commercial banking and capital markets. The success which was achieved up till now in the field of macroeconomic stabilization is clearly visible. In spite of the price shock in the first three months of 1991 due to the price liberalization and the cuts of subsidies, the monthly consumer price increases since then until the end of 1992 di...
The External Wealth of Nations
Capital flows are closely monitored, but surprisingly little is known about the stocks of external assets and liabilities held by countries, especially in the developing world. This paper constructs estimates of foreign assets and liabilities and their equity and debt subcomponents for 66 industrial and developing countries for the period 1970-97. It explores the sensitivity of estimates of stock positions to the treatment of valuation effects not captured in balance of payments data. Finally, it characterizes the stylized facts of estimated stocks and asks whether there are trends in net foreign asset positions and differences in debt-equity ratios across countries.
Agricultural Producer Support Estimates for Developing Countries
By examining and comparing agricultural policies in India, Indonesia, China, and Vietnam, this study helps fill a significant gap in development research. The report provides an assessment of conceptual and measurement issues related to the effects of trade and domestic-support policies and policy reforms on the incentives of agricultural producers and presents empirical estimates of the degree of protection or disprotection in the four countries. From India's countercyclical policy outcomes and Indonesia's high levels of agricultural protection, to the trend toward modest support of agriculture in China and Vietnam, the report's results demonstrate both how changes in agricultural policy can improve farmers' incentives as economic growth occurs and how difficult it is to reform entrenched policy interventions. Through such findings, the report contributes to policy discussions on creating propoor policies related to agricultural support and trade, both at the domestic level and in international negotiations.
How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth
We test the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in a cross-country regression framework, utilizing data on FDI flows from industrial countries to 69 developing countries over the last two decades. Our results suggest that FDI is an important vehicle for the transfer of technology, contributing relatively more to growth than domestic investment. However, the higher productivity of FDI holds only when the host country has a minimum threshold stock of human capital. In addition, FDI has the effect of increasing total investment in the economy more than one for one, which suggests the predominance of complementarity effects with domestic firms.
Inflation Targeting and Communication
Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency in central bank communication. We find that the three communication tools-inflation targets, inflation forecasts, and verbal assessments of inflation factors contained in quarterly inflation reports-provided a consistent message in five out of six observations in our 2000-05 sample of Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Thailand, and Sweden.
The Economic Crisis and European Integration
This unique and fascinating book illustrates that the 'credit crunch' and the ensuing financial and economic crisis of 2007-2009 did not only strike hard at the economy in the Western world, but also at its policymakers, at economics as a scientific discipline and, more specifically, at the process of European integration itself. In a series of theoretical and empirical papers, the expert contributors discuss the impact of the financial crisis on European integration in detail, considering issues including governance, sovereign debt crises, global economic imbalances, and post-crisis perspectives from Central and East European countries. The conclusion is that there is an urgent need for pol...
