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History of the Złoty
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Information Bulletin
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The Impact on the Polish Economy of the Structural Open Market Operations Programme Conducted by NBP
The paper presents estimates of the macroeconomic effects of the Structural Open Market Operations (SOMO) programme implemented by NBP in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. In order to assess the ex-ante impact of bond purchases by the central bank on the real economy and prices in Poland, (i) the impact of unconventional monetary policy on financing conditions, identified indirectly using the shadow policy rate concept, and (ii) the impact of the SOMO on the exchange rate of the Polish zloty against the euro were estimated. The results of the NECMOD model simulations indicate that the unconventional monetary policy conducted by NBP reduced the extent of the decline in GDP growth and inflation by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points in 2020 and 0.5 percentage points each in 2021. At the same time, the macroeconomic impact of the SOMO was similar to the effect of the interest rate cuts in the first half of 2020.
