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Nordic Economic Policy Review 2020: Financial regulation and macroeconomic stability in the Nordics
How well designed are the financial regulations that have been imposed after the global financial crisis in 2008–09 and the subsequent euro crisis? Will the new bail-in rules work in a systemic crisis, or do we risk further costly bail-outs by governments? How does monetary policy influence household debt? Have macroprudential tools been well-calibrated? Answers to these questions are crucial for judging the risks that the current corona crisis might also trigger a new financial crisis. The 2020 issue of the Nordic Economic Policy Review consists of six papers, including an introduction by editors Lars Calmfors and Peter Englund.
Crafting Consensus
Crafting Consensus offers a new theory of committee decision making and provides a rich understanding of modern-day central banking by studying central banks' communication with the public. Using extensive empirical analysis, Nicole Baerg explains how central bank transparency depends on the configuration of central bank committee members' preferences and the institutional rules governing how committee members set policy. The book shows that monetary policy committees comprised of bankers with opposing inflation preferences communicate more precisely and that precise communication then has positive economic effects.
Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission?
Has monetary policy in advanced economies been less effective since the global financial crisis because of deteriorating household balance sheets? This paper examines the question using household data from the United States. It compares the responsiveness of household consumption to monetary policy shocks in the pre- and post-crisis periods, relating changes in monetary transmission to changes in household indebtedness and liquidity. The results show that the responsiveness of household consumption has diminished since the crisis. However, household balance sheets are not the culprit. Households with higher debt levels and lower shares of liquid assets are the most responsive to monetary policy, and the share of these households in the population grew. Other factors, such as economic uncertainty, appear to have played a bigger role in the decline of households’ responsiveness to monetary policy.
Alternative Economic Indicators
Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
The Costs of Macroprudential Deleveraging in a Liquidity Trap
We examine the effects of various borrower-based macroprudential tools in a New Keynesian environment where both real and nominal interest rates are low. Our model features long-term debt, housing transaction costs and a zero-lower bound constraint on policy rates. We find that the long-term costs, in terms of forgone consumption, of all the macroprudential tools we consider are moderate. Even so, the short-term costs differ dramatically between alternative tools. Specifically, a loan-to-value tightening is more than twice as contractionary compared to loan-to-income tightening when debt is high and monetary policy cannot accommodate.
International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy
How does domestic monetary policy in systemic countries spillover to the rest of the world? This paper examines the transmission channel of domestic monetary policy in the cross-border context. We use exogenous shocks to monetary policy in systemically important economies, including the U.S., and local projections to estimate the dynamic effect of monetary policy shocks on bilateral cross-border bank lending. We find robust evidence that an increase in funding costs following an exogenous monetary tightening leads to a statistically and economically significant decline in cross-border bank lending. The effect is weakened during periods of high uncertainty. In contrast, the effect is found to not vary according to the degree of borrower country riskiness, further weakening support for the international portfolio rebalancing channel.
Bayesian Econometrics
Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.
Med Harley til Honningsvåg
Da Norge stengte ned, satte Mikal Olsen Lerøen seg på motorsykkelen. Til brølet fra en stor Harley-Davidson kjørte han landet rundt for å dokumentere hvordan pandemien rammet folk og samfunn. I Kristiansand møter han en restauranteier som gikk konkurs. I Flåm treffer han en pensjonist som ikke får se kjæresten på to år. Og i Træna benytter en ung finanskvinne krisen til å snu opp ned på livet og følge drømmen om å flytte hjem. Lerøen skildrer også hvordan det kan være langt fra folk flest til beslutningstagerne i hovedstaden. Mange ble kanskje hardere rammet av reglene om nedstengning og manglende støtteordninger, enn av selve viruset. Fergeopprør og bunadsgerilja for fødestuer er uttrykk for frustrasjon i distriktene. Etter hele 4 600 kilometer med asfalt, fergeleier, byer og fjelloverganger – er han ved veis ende på Nordkapp. Turen gjennom Norge viser at vi nordmenn har en unik evne til å klare oss og en fellesskapsfølelse som vokser seg sterkere med motstand.
Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial weal...
Industrial Organization
Pepall's Industrial Organization: Contemporary Theory and Empirical Applications, 5th Edition offers an accessible text in which topics are organized in a manner that motivates and facilitates progression from one chapter to the next. It serves as a complete, but concise, introduction to modern industrial economics. The text uniquely uses the tools of game theory, information economics, contracting issues, and practical examples to examine multiple facets of industrial organization. The fifth edition is more broadly accessible, balancing the tension between making modern industrial analysis accessible while also presenting the formal abstract modeling that gives the analysis its power. The more overtly mathematical content is presented in the Contemporary Industrial Organization text (aimed at the top tier universities) while this Fifth Edition will less mathematical (aimed at a wider range of four-year colleges and state universities.
